Macedonia
terrorist raid may be linked to country's support of Russia –
Lavrov
16
May, 2015
Moscow
‘can’t help thinking’ the recent terrorist attack in Macedonia
has something to do with the country’s objection to anti-Russian
sanctions and participation in the Turkish Stream gas pipeline
project, the Russian foreign minister said.
Sergey
Lavrov was referring to the events in the city of Kumanovo not far
from the Kosovo border, where a raid by gunmen last week resulted in
street battles that left 18 people dead, including eight police
officers. At least 30 people, most of them Kosovar Albanians, have
been charged over the attack in the ethnically diverse city with a
strong Albanian presence.
“We
are greatly concerned with the latest events in Macedonia, and the
situation in Kosovo does not give us any ground for optimism,”
Lavrov said on Friday during his visit to Serbia. “We are seriously
concerned that those were the result of a well-planned terrorist
act.”
The
EU “should not play ostrich and try to present the case as if there
were no organizational force behind it,” he added, saying officials
in Brussels are apparently embarrassed that all their efforts to
stabilize the situation in former Yugoslavia have been ineffective.
“Objectively
speaking, the events in Macedonia are unfolding against the
background of the government’s refusal to join the policy of
sanctions against Russia and the vigorous support Skopje gave to the
Turkish Stream gas pipeline project, to which many people oppose,
both in Brussels and across the ocean,” he said.
“So
we can’t help but feeling that there is some sort of connection
here.”
Both
Lavrov and his Serbian counterpart Ivica Dačić criticized the idea
of so-called Greater Albania, an Albanian nationalist notion to
gather all lands with an Albanian population under one government. It
would include Kosovo and other parts of Serbia that are currently
under Belgrade’s control, as well as parts of Macedonia, Montenegro
and Greece.
“The
idea of Greater Albania is not criticized in either Washington or
Brussels,” noted Dačić. “The policy of Albanian nationalism
must be condemned. It’s about terrorism.”
Mirroring
Lavrov’s statements, the Russian Foreign Ministry accused the West
of masterminding the violence in Macedonia. The ministry cited
reports in the Serbian media that said a Montenegro national was
arrested in Macedonia for assisting “Kosovar Albanian extremists,”
saying it proved that there was a plan in motion to “destabilize
the political situation in that country and plunge it into the abyss
of a colored revolution.”
“This
also proves that Western masterminds of such catastrophic scenarios
prefer proxies for implementing them, using citizens of countries
like Montenegro, which were tempted by NATO lures, in Ukraine and now
in Macedonia,” the statement on Saturday said.
It
added the reigniting chaos in the Balkans would pose a direct threat
to Europe.
On
Sunday, a massive anti-government rally is expected in Skopje.
Opposition leaders are demanding the resignation of the Macedonian
government, accusing it of illegally wiretapping Macedonians and
covering up the killing by police of a 22-year-old man back in 2011.
US-Russia
Round Three: Macedonia
Andrew
Korybko
16
May, 2015
The
U.S. and Russia are currently involved in heated competition amidst
the New Cold War, with their latest rivalry threatening to turn hot
over Macedonia. They had already duked it out over Ukraine (and still
are, to a large extent), and a deadly stalemate has now settled over
Syria as the U.S. covert war on the country drags through its
fourth year.
The
latest flare-up between the two Great Powers is now gearing up to be
for Macedonia, with the U.S. following the template it’s learned in
the previous two cases to throw the country into chaos during the
forthcoming 17
May Color Revolution offensive.
The terrorists intercepted
last weekend in
Kumanovo were supposed to have coordinated
their attacks with the Color Revolutionaries during
this Sunday’s destabilization, which would have symbolized the
strategic merger between the Color Revolution and Unconventional War
elements of the U.S. regime change toolkit.
With
all eyes on Macedonia to see what will happen this Sunday, it’s
worth recalling the previous two rounds of their confrontation in
better understanding how Round Three represents the seamless
continuation of their New Cold War rivalry.
Same
Scenario, Different States
What’s
occurring in Macedonia is incontestably the continuation of
tried-and-tested American destabilization tactics, and it follows the
exact same scenario as what occurred in Syria and Ukraine before it.
Theme:
The
underlying theme connecting Syria, Ukraine, and now Macedonia is that
they’re proxy wars between the U.S. and Russia, with Washington
playing the destructive offensive role while Russia holds the
stabilizing defense.
To
explain, the U.S. strives to force regime change on those targeted
states, while Russia actively works to reinforce their governments in
resisting the attack. Russian-Ukrainian and Russian-Syrian strategic
collaboration during their regime change crisis is well-known, but in
the case of Russian-Macedonian relations, ties are much more
sensitive and lurk mostly in the shadows. Due to Macedonia’s
‘official’ policy of wanting to join NATO and the EU, its
government and intelligence services cannot be publicly associated in
cooperating with their Russian counterparts, hence why such
relationships are kept in the shadows.
Czech
President Milos Zeman (L) and Macedonian President Gjorge Ivanov (R)
in Kremlin, 09 May 2015
While
one may doubt whether such ties exist, they can only help but wonder
whether Russian intelligence helped expose the massive wiretapping
coup attempt to the Macedonian government, especially since
adroit foreign
(read: Western) intelligence is
to blame for the conspiracy. Additionally, the appointment of
an alumni
from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations as
the Macedonian Ambassador to Russia speaks loudly about Skopje’s
intention to deepen ties with Moscow. On top of that,
Russia supported Macedonia
when the Gosince
terrorist test-run occurred
and later voiced strong
condemnation of
the Kumanovo terrorist attack and Zaev’s Color Revolution attempt.
Taken
together, one can see that Russia has rapidly cultivated influence
with the Macedonian state as part of its larger Balkan
Stream plans,
and it should be taken as a given that intelligence collaboration and
counter-Color Revolution support is also involved.
Pattern:
The
U.S. has patterned a distinct
template of regime change that’s
visibly discernable in Macedonia, after having of course been
perfected in Syria and Ukraine first. When a country is targeted for
asymmetrical attack, the U.S. deploys a Color Revolution attempt in
order to promote ‘soft’ destabilization (which as can be seen
from the Syrian and EuroMaidan innovations, actually involves quite a
lot of bloodshed). Should this tactic fail to dislodge the
democratically elected and legitimate government, then the U.S.
begins pursuing an Unconventional War (terrorism and insurgency) to
pile on the pressure and hope that it’s enough to topple the
authorities. The final scenario in all cases is to provoke a
conventional military intervention if the previous two regime change
attempts are unsuccessful, although such a force is nowadays expected
to be disguised as a ‘humanitarian intervention’/’responsibility
to protect’/’anti-terrorism’ operation.
The
U.S. succeeded in overthrowing Ukraine’s government with a Color
Revolution, but this didn’t come to pass in Syria, hence the
escalation to an Unconventional War. The same thing is happening in
Macedonia right now, even down to the ISIL-trained fighters. The
Color Revolution is flailing, ergo why it’s morphing into an
Unconventional War.
The
U.S. has purposely resurrected one of the most dangerous terrorist
groups in the Balkans, the Kosovo Liberation Army, in order to incite
ethnic divisions between Albanian and Slavic Macedonians and
facilitate its regime change plans. At the same time, however, it’s
taking a somewhat novel approach by keeping the Color Revolution on
life support and attempting to integrate it into the
Unconventional War.
The
strategy here is to apply dual mechanisms of pressure that can engage
in ‘friendly competition’ with one another in seeing which can
overthrow the government first. The only reason that this concept is
even considered and that the Color Revolution hasn’t totally
fizzled out by this time is because it’s gained some support
from dissatisfied
youth groups who
have been manipulated into joining the anti-government protests.
With
the Color Revolution kept alive by a collection of youth and their
heavily publicized tweets and protests,
and the Unconventional War dependent on terrorism, the regime change
operations’ social foundations are extremely weak, yet they have
the potential for massive expansion if the 17 May destabilization
events can gather more adults and Albanians (either
through enticement or provocation).
Isis
fighters in Syrian with US weapons and tank captured from US trained
and armed Iraq army.
Scorecard:
In
preparation for the ‘next round’, let’s take stock of where the
two contenders stand thus far:
2011-Present: Syria
The
U.S. began a local Color Revolution in Syria along the lines of
the regional
theater-wide one code-named
the ‘Arab Spring’. After being resolutely defeated by the
patriotic population, it transformed on command to an Unconventional
War directly supported by the country’s treacherous Turkish,
Israeli, and Jordanian neighbors.
Right
now the situation is at a standstill as the U.S. and its allies pump
more terrorists, guns, and money into the conflict and Russia
continues equipping its decades-long Syrian ally in fighting back
against the aggression.
2013-2014: Ukraine
Like
in Syria, the U.S. began a Color Revolution in Ukraine against the
government, but this one was a lot more successful. Within a few
months, it toppled the government and swept to power in Kiev,
representing a symbolic American victory against Russian interests.
However,
the subsequent reunification with Crimea and civil war over Donbass
makes one question whether or not this was a pyrrhic victory for
Washington, and the final verdict has yet to be handed down.
2015-Present: Macedonia
Following
its template, the U.S. began with a Color Revolution and is now
calling up its Unconventional War cavaliers to enact a hybrid regime
change push against the government. Russia has made large strides in
expanding its partnership with Macedonia in recent months, but the
most fruitful portion of their interactions focusing on the
intelligence services and counter-Color Revolution strategies will
likely never be able to be fully assessed.
Right
now, all sides are racing to position themselves in anticipation of
17 May when the Color Revolutionaries and Unconventional Warriors
prepare to face-off against the government and its citizens, in a
date that will ‘formalize’ Round Three in the US-Russian
geopolitical New Cold War.
From
Energy Wars To Hot Wars
All
three of the geopolitical conflicts in the New Cold War are
intertwined with the US’ energy strategy in Eurasia and
Washington’s will to dominate key transit routes in
the supercontinent:
Syria:
President
Bashar Assad had agreed to create the Friendship
Pipeline with
Iran and Iraq in order to transport Gulf gas to the burgeoning EU
market. This clashed with Qatar and Saudi Arabia’s plans for
a rival
pipeline to
go through Jordan and Syria and support the EU with their own
non-Iranian resources. After President Assad rejected the Gulf
Monarchies in favor of his long-standing Iranian allies, the decision
was made to overthrow his government and the Color Revolution and
related Unconventional War were launched a few years later after the
supportive infrastructure had been established.
As
of now, the Friendship Pipeline hasn’t been built and the plethora
of challenges physically standing in its way might mean that it
likely won’t be any time soon. This in turn keeps the EU within the
unipolar sphere of U.S. influence since Washington prevented a major
multipolar energy source from directly exporting to its proxy bloc.
The next step was thus to neutralize the only non-American-controlled
supplier feeding the EU, Russia, by hijacking one of its most
important geostrategic routes and placing it under the control of
the U.S.
Ukraine:
In
this battle, the U.S. maneuvered to gain control over critical
pipelines traversing Ukraine’s territory, knowing that this would
put it in a position of influence over both the EU and Russia; the
former would be dependent on an American proxy for supplies, while
enormous amounts of the latter’s budget
revenue reaped
through the said pipelines would immediately fall under American
geopolitical influence.
While
the U.S. did succeed in gaining control of Ukraine’s geostrategic
transit area and scuttling South Stream, it didn’t anticipate that
Russia would counter these moves with Turkish/Balkan
Stream and
mandate that all Ukrainian-destined energy exports bediscontinued
by 2019.
In one grand move, Russia reversed the US’ geo-energy (but not the
geo-military) successes from its coup in Kiev.
Macedonia:
As
a direct consequence of the US’ War on Ukraine and Russia’s
Turkish/Balkan Stream countermeasures, the War on Macedonia has
begun. The U.S. is adamant about destroying Turkish/Balkan Stream,
seeing its very existence as a slight to America’s strategic
calculations and ‘success’ in Ukraine.
On
top of that, it wants to do whatever it can to prevent Russian
influence from taking hold in the Balkans via the pipeline plans,
fearing that such a development could trigger a ‘multipolar coup’
in the EU’s strategically vulnerable backdoor region. Geopolitics
dictate that Macedonia is the chokepoint for any North-South
integration through the Balkans, hence the frenzied competition
between the U.S. and Russia over its stability and
strategic trajectory.
The
future of the Balkans quite literally runs
through Macedonia,
and its disposition towards either the unipolar or multipolar world
will have continental-wide reverberations and directly influence the
nature of US-EU and EU-Russian relations.
The
Never-Ending Struggle
All
conflicts in Eurasia essentially come down to being between
the Exceptionalists
and the Integrationalists,
with the examined context finding the former represented by Greater
Albania and the latter by the Balkan Stream countries.
Russia
is preparing to use the pipeline as a springboard for intensifying
full spectrum cooperation with all the countries along its route,
thereby meaning that Balkan Stream is more than just a piece of
physical energy infrastructure, but is instead an attractive
alternative to haphazard EU integration and a magnet for
multipolarity. Moscow’s refreshing recognition of its partners’
sovereignty and independence sets it apart from Washington and
Brussels, hence why it’s gaining such wide support in the region
over such a short period of time.
Faced
with such a surging and well-received competitor, the unipolar world
decided to sabotage its rival by finally activating the ticking
time bomb of Greater Albania,
which would throw the region into chaos and disrupt the multipolar
integration taking place beyond its control.
The
combined pan-Eurasian scope of these three multipolar anchors’
integrational projects means that there’s scarcely any place in the
supercontinent that isn’t a potential battleground between the
Exceptionalists and the Integrationalists. As such, due to the
convergence of interests between Russia, China, and Iran in
reinforcing Eurasian stability as the most solid guarantee of
facilitating their grand integrational strategies, these three
civilization-states must absolutely intensify
their trilateral relations and
cooperatively work together in helping one another actualize
their plans.
A
unified full-spectrum framework of assistance to each of their
partner states presents the most surefire method in guaranteeing
their security and counteracting any conventional and asymmetrical
destabilizations that the unipolar world bears upon them in wrath.
Concluding Thoughts
The
unipolar and multipolar worlds are once more clashing in Eurasia,
this time in the tiny Balkan country of Macedonia. A major proxy war
is unfolding between the U.S. and Russia over this geostrategic
state, and it’s following the exact same patterns of the previous
conflicts in Syria and Ukraine. As with the prior two, the U.S. once
more wants to gain control of a key energy route and preempt it from
becoming a platform for multipolarity, and it’s resorting to a
Color Revolution and Unconventional War to attain its objective.
Russia,
on the other hand, is again on the defensive, once more indirectly
supporting a beleaguered partner in surviving the unipolar onslaught.
Everything is coming to a head on 17 May when the Color
Revolutionaries/Unconventional Warriors have planned their next
regime change push, and it’s up to Macedonians and their government
(with Russian intelligence and strategic guidance) to repulse the
aggressors and protect their homeland from destruction.
Given
the enormous long-term strategic stakes involved (liberating Europe
with multipolarity or keeping it shackled in unipolarity), the Third
Round of the US-Russian geopolitical confrontation might be its most
climactic one yet.
Two
Turkish F-16s has shot down Syrian aircraft that allegedly violated
Turkey’s airspace in the southern province of Hatay. Syria says the
target was a small unmanned surveillance plane, while Turkey claims
it was a helicopter.
According
to Turkey's Defense Minister Ismet Yilmaz, a helicopter went seven
miles into Turkish territory, for a period of five minutes, before
the two jets fired two missiles into it.
Locals
reported seeing the aircraft break into several parts, then hitting
the ground on the Syrian side of the border.
Turkey,
which has staunchly opposed the government of Syrian president Bashar
Assad since the start of a rebellion against him four years ago,
regularly scrambles jets on its 900 km border with Syria. A Turkish
F-16 shot down a Syrian MiG-25 in March last year.
After
four years of bloody civil war in Syria, severely affected by
external interference, it appears that the regime in Damascus has
begun to crack, despite the fact that the Syrian army has scored one
victory after another on the field of battle. Yet there’s no
visible prospect of a peaceful settlement of the conflict. Moreover,
there are signs of the actual collapse of the Syrian state, which can
quickly be torn into a number of semi-independent entities. Should
this happen the massacre of the Syrian people will only intensify.
The grip of the government of Bashar al-Assad is weakening as
Damascus becomes increasingly dependent on its allies from abroad,
especially volunteers from Iran and Iraq. Traditionally the most
effective support Syria has is from the Lebanese Shia organization
Hezbollah.
From Nafeez Ahmed -
The
military targeting of civilian infrastructure, especially of water
supplies, is a war crime under the Geneva Conventions, writes Nafeez
Ahmed. Yet this is precisely what NATO did in Libya, while blaming
the damage on Gaddafi himself. Since then, the country's water
infrastructure - and the suffering of its people - has only
deteriorated further
Islamic
State militants were forced to leave the main government building in
the Iraqi city of Ramadi, Reuters reported on Saturday, citing the
city's mayor and a tribal leader. The government complex in Ramadi
was seized earlier this week by the extremists, who also raised their
black flag over the police HQ in the strategic capital of Iraq’s
Anbar province. According to the official, the militants were forced
to retreat after air strikes by a US-led coalition, although there
has been no immediate independent confirmation of the reports.
The
US wants to play a greater role in the implementation of the Minsk
peace agreement, America’s top diplomat for Europe, Victoria Nuland
said during her visit to Kiev. The assistant secretary of state
arrived in Ukraine in a gesture of support for the Ukrainian
government to meet top officials, including President Petro
Poroshenko, Parliament Speaker Vladimir Groisman, Prime Minister
Arseny Yatsenyuk and key ministers in his cabinet..
US
special operations forces have conducted a military operation in
eastern Syria, targeting a senior Islamic State (IS, formerly
ISIS/ISIL) commander and his wife, the US defense secretary has
announced. The terrorist leader was killed in the raid.
Abu
Sayyaf, a senior Islamic State leader, was killed by US forces,
Defense Secretary Ash Carter said on Saturday, adding the terrorist
was involved in the group's military operations, as well as helping
to direct its "illicit oil, gas and financial operations."
Croatian
President Kolinda Grabar Katarovic paid an unannounced visit to the
site of the killings of pro-Nazi collaborators at Bleiburg, repeating
the manner of last month's likewise uannounced visit to the site of
the Jasenovac concentration camp.
Despite
the wishes of a number of US lawmakers, a plan is moving forward to
transition control of the Internet away from the US government and
under the supervision of a global body. According to the web’s
current key holder – and most of the world – that’s a good
thing.
Russian
and Chinese warships have crossed the Bosporus – Dardanelles
passage and arrived in the Mediterranean from the Black Sea, RIA
Novosti reports. The vessels, including the Black Sea Fleet’s
flagship, guided missile cruiser the Moskva, were replenishing
supplies at meeting points in the Mediterranean, Captain Igor
Dygalo,Navy spokesman for Russia’s Defense Ministry, said. Ten
warships from Russia and China will participate in joint excercises
in the region between May 17–21.
Seymour
Hersh's lengthy piece in the London Review of Books ripped
apart most of the US’ official narrative surrounding the
killing of bin Laden by Navy SEALS in 2011. While some
- particularly Max Fisher writing at Vox — were
quick to pick his claims apart, the CIA itself and other
journalists have come forward to corroborate parts of Hersh's
story. And he is refusing to backtrack on his claims.
The
White House called Hersh's story "baseless" and CNN dubbed
it a "farrago of nonsense," even as the CIA
confirmed to NBC
news that one of the major claims of the story was true —
namely that Pakistan knew bin Laden’s location before the
al-Qaeda founder was killed — and even as other
reporters and experts came
forward supporting
or corroborating claims in Hersh's story
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