This article represents the view of Empire - not of the poor people that he represented.
Death
of Hugo Chavez could set off shock waves across region
The
likelihood that Venezuela's Hugo Chavez is close to death will pitch
rivals against one another in a battle for power and oil riches, and
trigger political shock waves across the region.
5
January, 2013
The
orchestra played and loyal lawmakers erupted in adulatory applause as
Hugo Chavez invoked Fidel Castro and Jesus Christ as his
revolutionary role models.
His
right hand raised, the fiery Venezuelan leader echoed the famous call
to arms of his Cuban mentor. "Fatherland, socialism or death,"
he proclaimed, then added with a typical flourish: "I swear by
Christ, the greatest socialist in history." That was six years
ago as "El Commandante" was sworn in for his third term as
president and blew kisses to rose petal-tossing crowds when he
returned in an open-topped car to his palace to watch a military
parade.
On
Thursday, the ideologue - who has used his country's oil riches to
bankroll left-wing bed-fellows across Latin America, forged a cosy
alliance with Iran and assailed the US from its back yard - is due to
be celebrating his next inauguration.
But
there will be no joyous scenes. For this weekend, he is lying close
to death in a Cuban hospital bed, quite possibly being kept alive on
a ventilator, suffering from respiratory problems and a severe lung
infection after his fourth round of surgery in 18 months for an
undisclosed type of pelvic cancer.
His
illness has already sparked a constitutional crisis in Venezuela,
where he won a hotly-contested election in October but has not yet
started a new term. His death would send shock waves across the
region and could endanger the survival of Cuba's communist regime
which is dependent on his largesse for cheap oil.
And
despite their protestations of socialist solidarity, his senior
lieutenants have already begun a power struggle to replace the
58-year-old former paratroop commander who has ruled the country as a
one-man show since 1998.
With
the president's demise, several factions will be vying for control of
the country's political future and oil wealth -- the diehard
ideologues known as Chavistas; his former comrades in the powerful
armed forces; the rich and powerful Chavez clan, led by his older
brother Adan; and the new breed of politically-connected tycoons who
have enriched themselves hugely even as its leader pursued his "21st
century socialism".
On
Friday night, Nicolas Maduro, the country's vice-president and Mr
Chavez's anointed successor, gave the clearest indication that the
inauguration might not take place on Thursday, claiming that Mr
Chavez could instead be sworn in by his Supreme Court appointees, at
a later date and unspecified location - if still alive.
That
stance will infuriate opposition leaders who insist that the
constitution requires Mr Chavez to take the oath on Jan 10 or for new
elections to be called within 30 days. But their view is unlikely to
win the day in a country where the ruling party dominates all
branches of government.
And
on Saturday, Diosdado Cabello was re-elected as National Assembly
leader, putting him inline to become caretaker president if Mr Chavez
does not recover.
The
vote cemented his position as the third most powerful figure after
the president and Mr Maduro, his potential rival.
"As
a patriot ... I swear to be supremely loyal in everything I do, to
defend thefatherland, its institutions, and this beautiful revolution
led by our Comandante Hugo Chavez," Mr Cabello said as he took
the oath. Outside, red-clad Chavez supporters chanted their support
for their absent leader.
Amid
this manoeuvring, the newspaper El Nacional lamented an "information
vacuum" and compared the situation to the secrecy that
surrounded the deaths of Soviet dictator Josef Stalin and Mao Zedong
in China.
And
indeed, the parade of high-profile visitors to Mr Chavez's Havana
hospital in recent days has resembled the scene at the bedside of a
dying mediaeval monarch surrounded by kin and court paying tribute.
His
elderly parents and six brothers -- who have flourished politically
and financially on his coat-tails in his home state of Barinas --
have visited, along with four children by two ex-wives and
miscellaneous other relatives.
But
just as significant were the two major political figures who flew in
to the Cuban capital -- Mr Maduro and Mr Cabello - the men at the
centre of the palace intrigues.
The
upper hand for now is undoubtedly with Mr Maduro after Mr Chavez last
month urged Venezuelans to back him as his successor. He is a former
bus driver and bear of a man who has displayed not only slavish
devotion to Mr Chavez at home but also shares his idolising of the
Castros.
"If
Maduro runs and wins in new elections, he'll amount to little more
than a puppet of Havana," said Gustavo Coronel, a former
Venezuelan congressman.
"This would amount to Cuban regency."
But for all his fealty to the cause, Mr Maduro is also widely
regarded as an unsophisticated political operator who parrots Chavez
lines without the charisma to galvanise followers or strength to
unite feuding factions.
Mr
Cabello is by contrast not only a more astute political player, he is
also a former army officer who took part in the failed Chavez coup of
1992 and hence commands considerable support in the country's
powerful armed forces.
He
is also said to be the beneficiary of close ties with the country's
politically well-connected "Boligarchs" – oligarchs who
have flourished under the "Bolivarian revolution", named
after the South American liberation hero Simon Bolivar venerated by
Mr Chavez.
As
National Assembly president, he may also be called on to serve as
acting president if new elections are called. So if Mr Maduro seems
to be flailing after death of his mentor, few doubt that Mr Cabello
would see his chance.
For
both men, wooing the kingmakers in the president's family will be
crucial. Indeed, Adan Chavez, a former ambassador to Cuba, education
minister and now governor of the family fiefdom of Barinas, was just
18 months ago being touted as a dynastic successor when his brother
suffered his first bout of cancer.
But
the prospect of a Castro-style fraternal handover later faded, not
least as Adan lacks the political skills of his younger sibling.
Nonetheless,
how the power struggle plays out will be watched very closely on the
grassland expanses of Barinas where Mr Chavez was born, the second of
seven sons of the local schoolmaster, in a small dirt-floor home in
Sabaneta.
They
were suitably humble origins for the man who would turn into a
left-wing firebrand. But the talk in Barinas now is of how the Chavez
clan has prospered since politics here became a family affair.
Mr
Chavez's father, Hugo Sr, ran the state as governor for a decade,
assisted by his son Argenis as his top aide. Argenis moved on to head
the National Electricity Board and the state is now governed by Adan.
Another
brother Anibal twice served as the mayor of Sabaneta, the president's
birthplace, while Adelis Chavez is vice-president of the bank that
handles the state accounts.
Yet
another brother, Narciso, was made responsible for state co-operation
projects with Cuba. Various other relatives also have senior
positions with government agencies.
The
family's prosperity flourished with their political power. Their
small chicken and pig farm is now a sprawling state-of-the art ranch.
And in Barinas, they live in a luxury mansion in a high-walled
compound in the most exclusive neighbourhood and travel in convoys of
heavily-armed SUVs that screech through the streets.
Opposition
figures in the state have claimed that they own up to another 20
estates through frontmen and that they have benefited from
construction projects.
In
Venezuela's poorest state, the ostentatious displays of wealth,
including the penchant of the president's mother Elena Frias for
expensive designer clothes, are a growing source of resentment,
although the family deny opposition claims of corruption and
nepotism.
Noel
Zamudia, a local party official and childhood friend of the
president, told The Sunday Telegraph that "the revolution"
would live on, whatever the fate of Mr Chavez.
"The
president himself said that revolution is not about a man and the
people understood that. Those who fail to understand this are
right-wing militants who despise the people. If Hugo dies, if that is
God's decision, then the revolution will continue its path." But
Miguel Oraa, an opposition leader in Barinas, predicted that the
death of Mr Chavez would end the edifice of his rule. "There is
no revolution without Chavez," he told this newspaper. "People
say 'I am a Chavista, not a revolutionary'. Chavismo without Chavez
does not exist, it falls apart. The empire collapses completely."
Indeed, opinion polls last year indicated that Henrique Capriles, the
opposition leader, would beat any Chavista candidate in fresh
elections. But an election held in the wake of Mr Chavez's death
could deliver a powerful and decisive sympathy vote for a Chavez
heir.
Whoever
succeeds him, the Venezuelan leader will be bequeathing his successor
a dire and destabilising economic prognosis, for all the country's
oil riches.
The
very fact that he has repeatedly sought medical treatment in Cuba
over the last 18 months for his recurring cancer is a damning
indictment of his stewardship of Venezuela, say his critics.
He
has undergone surgery, chemotherapy and radiation treatment there
because the financially-stricken communist Caribbean outpost has a
better health service than Venezuela, despite being much poorer.
Mr
Chavez has instead lavished the windfall of the world's largest known
oil reserves to support his left-wing allies abroad and cement the
loyalty of the dependant poor at home.
Mr
Coronel, a former oil industry executive who tracks corruption in his
homeland, estimates that Mr Chavez has spent a mind-boggling $1
trillion of state funds to support foreign allies or domestic
political constituencies who support him.
But
that lavish cheque-book socialism has taken a disastrous toll on
coffers that should be flush thanks to high oil prices.
The
country has a surging fiscal deficit and its economy is crippled by
the sort of price and currency controls favoured under state
socialism. Inflation is soaring, the overvalued Venezuelan Bolivar is
sliding on the black market and the country's total debt, now about
$160 billion, has increased five-fold under Mr Chavez.
"It's
a perfect example to the rest of the world on how not to run an
economy," said one Caracas capital market broker.
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