Hurricane Irma updates - 09/14/2017

Florida Declares State Of Emergency As Category 4 Hurricane Irma Barrels Straight For Miami

Zero Hedge,

4 September, 2017

With Florida already bracing for a hit from Hurricane Irma, which according to some models may attain "monster" Category 5 winds as it nears land prompting locals to store up on everything from water to food to gas and various other housing supplies, late on Monday afternoon Florida Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency ahead of potential landfall, just hours after the governor of Puerto Rico did the same.

At roughly the same time, the NHC announced that Irma’s top sustained winds have reached 130mph (215 kph), which prompted an upgrade to a Category 4 storm for Irma. According to the latest update, Irma was moving west at 13mph, and was currently located about 490 miles east of Leeward Islands.

A hurricane warning was in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten, Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy.

Puerto Rico is expected to be hit at 2pm on Wednesday.

While some models suggest a small chance of (another) Gulf of Mexico hit:

Even more concerning, it now appears that despite hopes for a last minute course revision, Miami is smack in the middle of the latest hurricane path projections.

Which likely means that the preliminary panic which has gripped some Florida residents, is about to get worse. As we reported earlier,WPTV in Palm Beach reported that Shelves of water at several stores were nearly empty Sunday, even as Irma’s path remains uncertain. Hardware stores are also running out of tanks of gas and other supplies. One distressed shopper told WPTV that one Walmart had run out of bottled water.

“There was nothing at Walmart," said Bianca Rodriguez of Palm Beach Gardens. "Not even like one thing of water.”

According to WPTV emergency officials recommend people have one gallon of water per person, per day for at least five days in the event of a hurricane. Florida Gov. Rick Scott warned that “disaster preparedness” should be a priority for every family in the potential path of the storm. One shopper said he bought the last remaining cases of bottled water at the Winn-Dixie in Palm Beach Gardens.

“Rodriguez found cases of bottled water at a Winn-Dixie on Military Trail in Palm Beach Gardens Sunday night.  ‘I lucked out. There’s only a couple left, but at least there was enough for me,’ said Rodriguez.”

A Home Depot in Royal Palm Beach on Monday morning posted a sign that said they were short of some hurricane supplies.

And while some stores have already run out of supplies, for most Florida residents it is not too late to take precautions.

* * *

Here, courtesy of Wunderground's Bob Henson, is the latest summary on the rapidly intensifying Hurricane Irma, whose threat for Cuba, Puerto Rica and Florida, is rising by the hour.

Threat Increasing for Cuba, Florida from Intensifying Irma

Dangerous Hurricane Irma was intensifying as it approached the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Monday morning, and island residents in the path of Irma need to rush preparations to completion as the storm heads west-southwest at 14 mph. 

A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found that Irma’s central pressure was steadily dropping Monday morning, reaching 944 mb at 11 am EDT. Irma's top sustained winds are estimated at 120 mph, and winds may not yet have fully responded to this pressure drop. Update: Based on Hurricane Hunter measurements, NHC raised Irma's top sustained winds at 5:00 pm EDT to 130 mph, making it a Category 4 storm. Irma is expected to be a major Category 4 hurricane when it passes very close to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday, near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Wednesday, and the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola on Thursday. As of 5 pm EDT Monday, Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the northern Leeward Islands, and Hurricane Watches are up for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Tropical storm-force winds are expected to begin affecting the east coast of Florida and the Florida Keys on Friday night (Figure 1 below). An evacuation decision for the Florida Keys may have to come as early as Tuesday, since the Keys require 3+ days to evacuate. As of 5 pm EDT, far southeast Florida, including Miami, was in the 5-day cone of uncertainty fo

Satellite images on Monday morning showed a very symmetric well-organized storm with solid spiral banding and a large eye. Irma had a respectable and improving upper-level outflow on all sides. Conditions were favorable for strengthening, with wind shear a low 5 – 10 knots. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along Irma's path have risen sharply over the past day, to 29°C (84°F), accompanied by a substantial increase in the total heat content of the ocean (Figure 2), giving the storm plenty of heat energy to fuel intensification. The surrounding atmosphere has been steadily moistening, as seen on precipitable water imagery, with a mid-level relative humidity near 55%, according to the 12Z Monday analysis from the SHIPS model.

Figure 1. Most likely arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds from Irma, as of the 11 am EDT Monday, September 4, 2017 advisory from NHC.

Intensity forecast for Irma

For the next five days, wind shear is predicted by SHIPS to remain very favorable for development—a low to moderate 5 - 15 knots. SSTs will be very warm, 29 - 30°C (84 - 86°F), accompanied by a high ocean heat content capable of fueling rapid intensification. Mid-level relative humidity is predicted to steadily rise, reaching 70% by the end of the week. We can expect one or more eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) this week, which will act to temporarily weaken the hurricane by about 10 mph. On Monday morning, the hurricane hunters found that an ERC was likely in progress, and the current intensification cycle will likely pause late today, as a result.

Our most reliable intensity models--the HWRF, COAMPS-TC, LGEM, and DSHIPS--predicted in their Monday morning runs that Irma would peak as a Category 4 or 5 hurricane with 130 - 160 mph winds, and the official NHC forecast of a Category 4 hurricane when it passes by the islands this week looks reasonable. The only major impediment to Irma’s strength would appear to be interaction with land; a close pass or direct hit on Hispaniola or Cuba could potentially damage or destroy the hurricane’s inner core and knock it down to Category 2 or 3 strength.

Figure 2. Total ocean heat content (OHC) along the track of Hurricane Irma, at 2 am EDT Monday, September 4, 2017. Irma is expected to encounter OHC levels of 80 – 100 kilojoules per square centimeter as it passes the Lesser Antilles islands. OHC levels this high are known to be very favorable for rapid intensification, and are similar to what fueled Hurricane Harvey’s rapid intensification over the Gulf of Mexico during its approach to the Texas coast (Figure 3). Image credit: University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Figure 3. Total ocean heat content (OHC) along the track of Hurricane Harvey on August 25, 2017. Harvey encountered OHC levels of 80 – 100 kilojoules per square centimeter as it moved to the northwest towards Texas. This large amount of heat helped fuel the storm’s rapid intensification into a Category 4 hurricane. Image credit: University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

How strong could Irma get?

Several computer models have been confronting meteorologists with some eye-opening intensity forecasts for Hurricane Irma, especially for the period around next weekend, when Irma is currently predicted to be arcing northwest from the Eastern Bahamas. We cannot rule out the chance that Irma will reach Category 5 strength, but we can safely discount some of the most extreme model-generated intensities. The GFS global model and the new HMON regional hurricane model have consistently been deepening Irma to pressures below 900 millibars (mb). 

However, neither of these models fully incorporates the interaction between ocean and atmosphere that serves as a check on a hurricane’s peak strength. A better guide to how strong Irma might get is the HWRF regional hurricane model, which extends out to 126 hours (just over five days). The HWRF has proven to be our most reliable model-based intensity guidance in recent years. The 0Z and 6Z Monday operational runs of HWRF deepened Irma to the 920 - 930 mb range, suggesting Irma will be a very formidable hurricane, but not a mind-blowing all-time record-setter.

For historical context, the lowest hurricane-related pressure ever measured at the surface north of the Caribbean and east of Florida is 921 mb in the Bahamas Hurricane of 1932. Hurricane Hunter dropsondes found a surface pressure of 919 mb within Hurricane Gloria (1985). Such pressures can support a Category 4 or 5 hurricane, but the peak winds depend on the size of the hurricane. As hurricanes move poleward, they typically get bigger. In a larger hurricane, the pressure force from a given central pressure will extend over a larger area, meaning that the top sustained winds will probably be lower but that a larger area could experience high winds and storm surge. This was the case with Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy, which brought record-low surface pressures and record-high surge across a large area despite winds of marginal hurricane force at best when Sandy made landfall.

Potential impact on the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico

Irma will assume a more westerly and west-northwesterly track over the next day, bringing the core of Irma just north of the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico on Tuesday and Wednesday. Irma is a medium-sized hurricane, with tropical storm-force winds that extend out 140 miles from the center, and hurricane-force winds that extend out 35 miles from the center. Most of the islands along Irma’s path will be on the weaker left side, where maximum wind speeds 10 – 20 mph less than the peak winds of the storm can be expected.

The 11 am EDT Monday Wind Probability Forecast from NHC highlighted a number of islands that might be at risk of tropical storm-force or hurricane-force winds on Tuesday and Wednesday. The highest odds were for Barbuda and Saint Maarten, with a 93% chance of tropical-storm force winds and a 52 -54% chance of hurricane-force winds. For the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, a 56 - 82% chance of tropical-storm force winds was given, and a 18 - 38% chance of hurricane-force winds.

The 6Z Monday run of the HWRF model predicted that northern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as eastern portions of Cuba, may receive rains of 8 – 16” from Irma. These rains will be capable of causing life-threatening flooding and mudslides. The model also predicted heavy rains of 8 – 16” in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas.

Long-range outlook for Irma

Computer model guidance on Irma’s future track made an important westward shift on Sunday night. Virtually all models—including our most reliable ones for hurricane track forecasts, the GFS, European, and UKMET—took Irma further west than prior model runs before an expected sharp turn to the north. This shift increases the chance that Irma will directly affect Hispaniola and especially Cuba, as discussed above. The shift also raises the odds for a U.S. landfall considerably, because Irma’s expected right turn toward the north would probably occur too late for Irma to miss the U.S. East Coast entirely. A strong upper-level trough will be moving well offshore by early next week, reducing the odds that Irma would be hauled out to sea.

Figures 4, 5, and 6 show the dramatic shift southwestward and its implications for landfall in three different configurations of ensemble models (GFS, Euro, and Euro high-probability). The 00Z Monday UKMET model, not shown, moves Irma along or near the north coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba.

Figure 4. The 20 track forecasts for Irma from the 0Z Monday, September 4, 2017 GFS model ensemble forecast. Image credit: CFAN.

Figure 5. The 0Z September 4, 2017, track forecast by the operational European model for Irma (red line, adjusted by CFAN using a proprietary technique that accounts for storm movement since 0Z), along with the track of the average of the 50 members of the European model ensemble (heavy black line), and the 50 track forecasts from the 0Z Monday European model ensemble forecast (grey lines). Image
credit: CFAN.

Figure 6.  The 0Z September 2, 2017, track forecast by the operational European model for Irma (red line, adjusted by CFAN using a proprietary technique that accounts for storm movement since 0Z), along with the track of the average of the 50 members of the European model ensemble (heavy black line), and the track forecasts from the “high probability cluster” (grey lines)—the four European model ensemble members that have performed best with Irma thus far. Image credit: CFAN.

It is unclear exactly why the modeled track shifted so dramatically on Sunday night, but the Monday morning (12Z) GFS run is very consistent with this shift, lending support to it. One piece of the puzzle is that the first Hurricane Hunter observations on Irma, gathered Sunday afternoon, were fed into the 00Z Monday runs. A raft of additional new data will be gathered on Monday and fed into upcoming model runs. This includes observations around Irma’s environment from the NOAA Gulfstream-IV, as well as extra radiosonde launches (weather balloons) that will sample the upper atmosphere at midday Monday (18Z) from 21 locations across the central U.S., where the upper-level trough expected to move offshore late this week will be taking shape. The model runs from 00Z Tuesday will incorporate the new data, so this will give us a much better sense of the steering currents guiding Irma and how those may evolve over the next week.

Irma is still four days from any potential direct U.S. impacts, so there is plenty of time for residents along the East Coast and eastern Gulf Coast to make any standard preparations for hurricane season that haven’t yet been squared way. 

The Sunday night model runs suggest that the entire Florida peninsula will need to pay very close attention to Irma, but it remains possible that Irma will move further north along the East Coast, or it could enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is strong model support for a north-northwest track once Irma makes its major right turn late in the week. The crucial variables will be how long it takes that turn to occur, how sharp the turn is, and whether Irma’s strength has been dented by interactions with Hispaniola and/or Cuba, as noted above.

Bottom line:  It is becoming more likely that Irma will move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and/or Cuba for significant impacts. There is an increasing chance that Irma will strike the U.S. late in the weekend or early next week, quite possibly as a major hurricane. It is still too soon to predict the location or timing of any U.S. landfall with confidence.

Tracking Hurricane Irma: 

Outlook for Sept. 4, 2017

Massive sea swells forecasted 

for Miami September 10 

High Tide - Huge

9/11/Irma Possible Cat

5/Double Impacts 7 Days

Apart!

CAT 4 IRMA could make 

Triple (3) State Landfall - 

FL/GA/SC

September 4, 2017: The Florida Governor has declared a "State of Emergency" 


as Hurricane IRMA strengthens to a BIG CAT 4 Hurricane. **This major storm has 

the potential, according to models right now which are of course subject to 

change, to make landfall in THREE different states! BIG heads-up. Incredible...

Europe's refugee predicament

I have been criticised (perhaps ‘defriended’ - I’m not sure)

by someone I ‘know’ on Facebook, because I posted an article from RT which the person deemed to be anti-Muslim.

Europe: Demoralized, invaded and violated

It eludes me why analysis of the situation with some criticism of the liberal ‘let them all in’ should be anti-Muslim.

What critics, especially Russian ones (as well as people like Mark Sleboda, Andrew Korybko) have in common is that they are not in the slightest anti-Muslim but are united in a condemnation of Salafism or Wahhabi ideologies (Takfiri) which are both violent and extremely sectarian and go against the grain of the most of Islam, both Sunni and Shiia.

The current refugee crisis is a direct result of western (most especially US, but also French and British) policies in the Middle East that have favoured the development of terrorist entities such as al-Qaeda and Daesh et.al as well as doing less than nothing to stop Turkey from unleashing waves of refugees on the Europe.

Of course no one, apart from the far-right racists that are in the ascendancy is going to be against humanitarian responses of taking in displaced women and children and family groups.

Does it need to be pointed out that the vast majority of refugees are displaced internally and in neighbouring countries? Those that have been able to pay people smugglers are the more well-to-do.

We have all seen scenes of fit, young men who have provoked violence with calls of “Allahu Akbar”. Should these people who have gone on to create mayhem in Cologne and other German cities also be welcomed with open arms in the grand humanitarian gesture?

Merkel is now talking about making it easier to deport these people. Where does she think that she is going to deport these people, many of whom came from elsewhere with false documents that seem to have gone unquestioned.

When they wanted to deport 4,000 people in Sweden they couldn’t even find them.

People talk about the numerically-small numbers involved. It does not take vast numbers to have a huge effect on an already -collapsing Europe.

Responses such as “She's (Merkel) the meat in the sandwich at the moment, her integrity holds well, hopefully the countries that border Germany show compassion” are simply unthinking.

This is part of a policy that I am sure emanates from Washington, to divide Europe and destroy any possibility of it taking a stand against the Empire. It is, in fact, what is called a predicament (for which there is no answer).

This is fact and no amount of “compassionate” sentiment or pretending there isn’t a problem (such as the mass sexual assault of women in Cologne).

Where is the feminist voice of outrage against sexual violation? Are they going to join the liberal chorus that is in complete denial of the facts?

Thousands Flood The Streets In Germany As Fury Over Refugee Sex Assaults Reaches Boiling Point

I am going to continue to endeavour to see things as they are (as best I can) rather from as I wish them to be (thereby totally distorting my vision reality).

‘US Seek to Control the EU Elites via Refugee Crisis’

....

This article is from October. is someone going to say it is false.

Are my liberal friends going to condone rape in the interests of the 'higher good', out of what I will call political correctness?

Now, go ahead, make my day. Call me racist or anti-Muslim.

Woman 'gang-raped in refugee camp ordered to stay SILENT by no-borders activists'

A GANG of Sudanese migrants raped a human rights activist at a refugee camp – but she was pressured to stay silent in case she damaged the cause, it has been claimed.

the Express,

7 October, 2015

It is claimed she was trapped in a shower block near the camp but loud music meant her cries for help went unheard during the horror attack.

The woman was told not to report the alleged crime by colleagues working for far-left group No Borders, according to reports.

They are said to have told her speaking out would have damaged their cause – to support freedom of movement and oppose migration controls.

She reportedly remained silent for over a month as a result.

She and her colleagues were stationed at a makeshift camp in Ventimiglia, Italy, on the border with France.

It became a flashpoint at the start of Europe's humanitarian crisis earlier this year after a local crackdown on border controls.

GETTY   The camp was mainly home to refugees from Libya, Sudan and Eritrea

GETTY   They moved in after being denied entry to Italy

Last week police cleared the camp – which housed around 30 migrants and 20 activists – with tents and personal belongings removed by lorries.

They refused to budge for most of the day – and only agreeing to move after the bishop of Ventimiglia intervened. 

The town's mayor said: "This situation could not go on. We understand why they are protesting but the camp was illegal."

The woman has not been identified but is thought to be in her 30s, according to Breitbart London.

GETTY   Some observed the start of Ramadan at the camp

MERKEL: WE MUST ACCEPT MIGRANT CRIME

Truth and Action,

13 January, 2015

The promoter of Germany’s wide open door to migrants, Angela Merkel, has been has been the Chancellor of Germany since 2005 , she has been considered the de facto head of the European Union and is the current Senior G7 leader, and she makes statements like this, “We have to accept that the number of crimes committed by young migrants is especially high”, that should make all under her leadership shudder.

Thus Europe falls….

Accepting crime is never a sign of great leadership. Allowing one’s own countrymen to be targets of crime committed by young migrants as acceptable, should be a glaring red signal that all is not well.

Merkel’s vow of five years ago that “guaranteed the safety of Germans in public areas and that swore to a zero tolerance policy toward violence” has proved smoke and mirrors in light of Merkel’s the open door policy and sexual assault perpetrated by thousands of immigrants on the German women who were once promised safety.

Rape, migrants, Germany and Merkel are intermingled in the headlines, as her prophetic words are coming to pass, “We have to accept that the number of crimes committed by young migrants is especially high.”

The attacks in Cologne, Stuttgart, Hamburg and other areas were not in isolation. Since Merkel opened Germany’s borders to a flood of “refugees,” rapes in and around migrant camps have exploded.

Merkel’s comments are of a similar nature to remarks made by Cologne Mayor Henriette Reker, who was widely derided for implying some of the blame fell at the feet of the victims and that German women should follow a “code of conduct” to include keeping potential rapists “at arms length”.

Blame for the migrant rape culture fall at the feet of Germany’s leadership. The wide open door, to a culture of men who will never assimilate, has destroyed Germany and many other European countries.

The Mayor of Cologne told women to keep rapists at arms length, but not to blame the migrants who are sexually assaulting women.


There is, I grant, a fine dividing line between recognsiing things as they are and the right-wing backlash that is taking over in Europe.

I repeat this is a predicament for which (because of past actions) has no solution that could be called 'civilised'

I am not going to use the following headline, 'Muslims Say They WillLegalize Raping White Christian Women After Taking Over Europe', which has no bearing with what follows.

http://www.worldnewspolitics.com/2016/01/14/muslims-say-they-will-legalize-raping-white-christian-women-after-taking-over-europe/

An editorial comment in the German newspaper Westfalen-Blatt says that the police is refusing to go public about crimes involving refugees and migrants, because they don’t want to give legitimacy to critics of mass migration. As a result, one recent rape was hushed up by the police for nearly three months, leaving other potential victims ignorant of the danger.

• A 13-year-old Muslim girl was raped by another asylum seeker at a refugee facility in Detmold, a city in west-central Germany. The girl and her mother reportedly fled their homeland to escape a culture of sexual violence.

• Approximately 80% of the refugees/migrants at the shelter in Munich are male… the price for sex with female asylum seekers is ten euros. — Bavarian Broadcasting (Bayerischer Rundfunk).

• Police in the Bavarian town of Mering, where a 16-year-old-girl was raped on September 11, have issued a warning to parents not to allow their children to go outside unaccompanied. In the Bavarian town of Pocking, administrators of the Wilhelm-Diess-Gymnasium have warned parents not to let their daughter’s wear revealing clothing in order to avoid “misunderstandings.”

• “When Muslim teenage boys go to open air swimming pools, they are overwhelmed when they see girls in bikinis. These boys, who come from a culture where for women it is frowned upon to show naked skin, will follow girls and bother them without their realizing it. Naturally, this generates fear.” — Bavarian politician, quoted in Die Welt.

• A police raid on the Munich refugee facility found that guards hired to provide security at the site were trafficking drugs and weapons and were turning a blind eye to the prostitution.

• Meanwhile, the raping of German women by asylum seekers is becoming commonplace.

According to This is England:

A growing number of women and young girls housed in refugee shelters in Germany are being raped, sexually assaulted, and even forced into prostitution by male asylum seekers, according to German social work organisations with first-hand knowledge of the situation.

Because of the lack of space, German authorities are forcing thousands of male and female migrants to share the same sleeping and restroom facilities, many of the rapes are occurring in the mixed-gender shelters.

As a reminder that things weren't always this way in Muslim countries

As ugly as it is inevitable

German Gangs Are Beating Up Immigrants After Syrian Refugees Sexually Assault Germany’s Women

Days after the sexual assaults on German women in Cologne city came to light, local gangs are uniting in a “manhunt” of foreigners.  And just this weekend, two Pakistanis and a Syrian man were injured in attacks by gangs of people in Cologne, German police said. On New Year’s Eve, Cologne was the scene of dozens of assaults on women, a number that has grown into hundreds as more and women have come forward to register complaints.