Reflections on James Hansen's talk

The great atmospheric scientist James Hansen - one of the first to bring global warming to the attention of the world gave a public talk in Wellington and participated in a seminar on the future of coal: and I was able to attend.

Apart from listening to the science presented by one of the world's top atmospheric scientists I was listening to someone with great humanity and compassion.

A strong point of his talk was this is an issue of intergenerational justice - and he made frequent reference to his own grandchildren.

He made no bones about the fact that the route taken by the Kyoto agreement based on "cap and trade" was a failure that has led to an increase in carbon emissions (on increase of 20 % in New Zealand's case!).

His policy suggestion of introducing a carbon tax where the proceeds are distributed directly to the population as a direct incentive to reduce carbon footprint is the only possible solution that might work.

One point that was new to me was that while it is possible to reduce other greenhouse gasses such as methane relatively quickly (say by reducing agricultural emissions) carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for a much longer period of time.  In addition it takes a long time for the effects of CO2 emissions to be reflected in changes in the ice caps and changes in climate.  This means that there are effects of emissions in the pipeline that we can no longer do anything about.  He is definitely of the opinion that reducing CO2 emissions from burning hydrocarbons was by far the most important priority; also that the effects of burning coal were greater than that of oil or gas.

My overall impression was that he seems to be making an effort to remain optimistic for the sake of his children and grandchildren; although it was also clear that was not his innermost feeling.  He responded to a question about a quote from Lloyd Geering a long the line that it may take a catastrophe to force people to make changes by saying "I hope not".

....

My main problem on listening to all of this is how to make sense of this in the context of Peak Oil and the obvious move towards economic, political and social collapse. We are simply reaching (or have reached) a point where a paradigm of Infinite Growth collides with limited resources.

Hansen seems to be saying, especially in his radio interview with Kim Hill that we need to invest in alternative forms of energy that do not emit greenhouse gasses and if we provide the right incentives this will happen.  

This seems to me to be over-optimistic for several reasons.

I recall, in the 2005 elections Jeanette Fitzsimons attempting to bring the issues of Peak Oil and climate change into the election debate.  She said we had a window of opportunity to use the oil available to produce the technology (such as wind and solar power) necessary to reduce carbon emissions.

Well, since then global oil production has certainly peaked and we have had the 2008 financial crash which has led to a situation where there is neither the energy nor the capital available to make these changes.

Not only that, but whatever technological advances are made take at least 30 years to introduce - and I don't think we have that sort of time available to us - neither in terms of climate change nor Peak Oil.

Hansen talked about nuclear power.  That is a case in point.  He talked about the technological advances; that fourth generation power plants are much cleaner. He lamented that the Fukushima accident had probably halted their further development.  Not only that, but in a world where increasing costs of oil have acted as a drag on the economy now most countries of the world are up to their eyes in debt and there is not the capital to invest in new nuclear power plants even if there were the will to do so.

In a rational world it would seem that in a world of oil production peaking and prices increasing - this might act as an incentive to move away from fossil fuels and towards alternative energy sources.

What seems far more likely to me is that Peak Oil is, along with a corrupt economic and political system killing off the economy and any possibility of a balanced, graduated move away from hydrocarbons.

In the meantime the response of governments (not least our own) and corporations is an irrational, greedy grab at whatever energy sources that are available - whether tar sands, whether lignite coal - and we know what the effects of that will be on the world's climate. 

It may well be that by the time James Hansen's grandchildren come to face the worst effects of rising sea levels and climate catastrophe that the modern industrial civilisation as we now know it may be history and those that survive the changes will be living in (to quote Jim Kunstler) 'a world made by hand'

To hear Dr. Hansen’s interview with Kim Hill click here.

Peak Oil turns bigtime in Australia

I have got this through the network - a piece from ABC in Australia on Peak Oil, so am getting it out as widely as I can.

That and more is available from the ABC website.

Chris Martenson interviewed

This is a summary for an interview of Chris Martenson by Jim Martenson of Financial Sense his latest book the Crash Course.  Available here.

The next twenty years will be completely unlike the last twenty years.

The world is in economic crisis, and there are no easy fixes to our predicament. Unsustainable trends in the economy, energy, and the environment have finally caught up with us and are converging on a very narrow window of time—the "Twenty-Teens." The Crash Course presents our predicament and illuminates the path ahead, so you can face the coming disruptions and thrive--without fearing the future or retreating into denial. In this book you will find solid facts and grounded reasoning presented in a calm, positive, non-partisan manner.

Our money system places impossible demands upon a finite world. Exponentially rising levels of debt, based on assumptions of future economic growth to fund repayment, will shudder to a halt and then reverse. Unfortunately, our financial system does not operate in reverse. The consequences of massive deleveraging will be severe.

Oil is essential for economic growth. The reality of dwindling oil supplies is now internationally recognized, yet virtually no developed nations have a Plan B. The economic risks to individuals, companies, and countries are varied and enormous. Best-case, living standards will drop steadily worldwide. Worst-case, systemic financial crises will toss the world into jarring chaos.

This book is written for those who are motivated to learn about the root causes of our predicaments, protect themselves and their families, mitigate risks as much as possible, and control what effects they can. With challenge comes opportunity, and The Crash Courseoffers a positive vision for how to reshape our lives to be more balanced, resilient, and sustainable.

John Key: "We are 100% pure"

When John Key was in London for the royal wedding he was interviewed on the BBC's  Hardtalk. During the interview Key was challenged on his assertion that New Zealand is "100% pure"

His response to the interviewer (who clearly knew his facts) opens to question whether this government is in any way capable of making the decisions needed to respond to our environmental, energy and social problems.

An abridged version of the interview covering the "100% pure" is available here; the full interviews is below.

The latest from Fukushima - partial meltdown

Yesterday the media came through with two articles, one from the Telegraph, the other from the Independent, confirming that the fuel rods on nuclear reactor no. 1 at Fukushima are exposed to  the air and the reactor is leaking huge amounts of radiation; basically there has been a partial meltdown.

I looked in vain for followup from our own NZ media - indeed from the media as a whole. Generally this slow-moving catastrophe is being ignored.

Arnie Gundersen from Fairewinds Associates is a respected independent nuclear expert who gives important updates on the crisis.

The latest from Fukushima; Reactor no. 4 leans

This is the latest from Fukushima - an interview with Dr Robert Jacobs of the Peace Institute in Hiroshima. Workers are getting one lifetime's exposure to radiation in 10 minutes.  Meanwhile there is a lean on reactor no.4 indicating instability of the building's structure; they describe the "deafening silence" from Tepco and the Japanese government

Inflinite growth paradigm meets end of cheap energy

As a non-economist I am not usually one for graphs.  However this one did make quite an impression on me. 

It shows clearly how we have left an era of economic growth and stability and are in a new era of instability.

It is 20 year chart of the US 30 Year Treasury Bond vs. a broad commodity index  It reveals how the purchasing power of the long-dated US Treasury Bond has fared against a basket of commodities over the period.

Click on the graph to enlarge

It shows how the western economic system was still in expansion, funded by cheap fossil fuels. This was round 9/11 and prior to the invasion of Iraq.

Basically paper assets are priced to reflect the belief in their future purchasing power against natural resources, energy and labour.

After 2002 comes the end of cheap energy (Peak Oil) which marks the end of economic growth in real terms.  Paper assets lose their stability and begin a period of decline.

After 2008 the economic system succumbs to its own lack of industrial growth due to the lack of availability of cheap energy. This leads to a new era of volatility in prices.

For the original article please see here.

World Food Prices Rise to Near-Record High as Inflation Speeds Up

This article shows how world food prices rose to near a record in April as grain costs advanced, adding pressure to inflation that is accelerating from Beijing to Brasilia and spurring central banks to raise interest rates.


This article from the Business Insider shows that neither corn not wheat crops are doing well in the United States

Osama bin Laden: the Fog of PR

More on how the Obama administration is trying to exploit the Osama bin Laden story....

Interview with Michael C Ruppert and Dr. Danielle Ganser

The interview with Michael C. Ruppert and Dr. Daniele Ganser is of  sufficient length for the participants to develop their ideas and to range over tops from 9/11 to peak oil, collapse and dealing with emotions such as fear.


Dr. Daniele Ganser is a Swiss historian who specializes in inter-national relations and international history from 1945 to today. His research interests are peace research, geostrategy, secret warfare, resource wars, globalization and human rights. He teaches at Swiss universities, including the history department of Basel University. His current research is focusing on the so called "war on terror" and peak oil (www.peakoil.ch)


I can highly recommend listening to this interview.


The introduction is in German but the interview is conducted in English

Osama bin Laden: the legend is dead

When the news came over that Osama bin Laden had been killed I must admit that my first thought was "how convenient" - low ratings for Obama, bad news on every front and the opportunity to take the terrorist alert up a few notches.

I found it odd that the US military was able to go into Pakistan and mount a full-scale military operation in another sovereign state, without the knowledge of the Pakistani operation.

Then there's the burial at sea - no chance now of examining DNA or examining the evidence now or in the future.

And then there's the photos of Osama's corpse that have been shown to be fake and have been circulated on the internet long before Osama's "death".

All of that has got me thinking that there might be something in the following article and perhaps we oughtn't take things at face value.

Here is a link to an al-Jazeera interview with Robert Fisk where he assesses bin Laden's significance in today's world.

This report from Russia Today describes very well all the contradicting versions of events. More from RT here with a variety of differing points-of-view.

James Hansen in New Zealand

World famous climate scientist Dr James Hansen arrives soon for a speaking tour in NZ, brought by a coalition of environmental and social justice organisations, academics and progressive business. If you've been puzzled about the controversies about climate change, this is your chance to get it straight. If you are already convinced and want to know what must be done, Be there. We can now bring you the schedule for public meetings in NZ. There is more detail on the facebook site  http://www.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#!/pages/James-Hansen-NZ-Tour-May-2011/176696445713765 His public talks are called "Human-made climate change: a scientific, moral and legal issue" and he explains the latest science of climate change, how serious and urgent action has become, and why he has become an activist as well as a scientist. This could be a turning point in NZ's awareness and in the public demand for government action. He is meeting with progressive business leaders, politicians, farmers, youth and media - I hope as many as possible of civil society will meet him too as we are the only ones who can make the difference in the end. We are not taking out paid advertising, but relying on e-lists and word of mouth. We are operating on a shoestring - if you would like to donate to the costs of the tour,  Oxfam is acting as banker for us. The account is 01 0202 0117805 02 Please use the reference ADCLIMATETOUR11_JHT Schedule of public events for Dr James Hansen’s NZ Tour, May 2011  Thurs 12th May: Auckland 6pm:   public lecture University of Auckland Business School OGGB4, Level 0, Owen Glenn Bldg, 12 Grafton Rd  Fri 13th May: Palmerston North 1.30pm public lecture, Japan Room,  Massey University  Sat 14  8.15 am RNZ with Kim Hill Mon 16th May: Wellington 5.45pm public lecture Rutherford House, welcomed by Mayor Celia Wade-Brown  Tues 17th May: Wellington 8.45 am – 5.30 pm IPS Symposium “Future of Coal,” Victoria University (he will speak 10.20 to 11.30,  on panel 4pm -5.30pm). Download programme  Wed 18th May:  Dunedin 5.30 – 7pm public lecture, St David’s Lecture Hall  Thurs 19th May:  Gore 2 pm public meeting hosted by Mataura Landcare group , Gore District Council Bldg  Friday 20th May: Christchurch 12-1 pm Uni of Canterbury, room tbc 5.30 pm public talk hosted by Kennedy Graham, MP, venue TBC   Saturday 21st May: Auckland 12-4 pm, Auckland Town Hall, Festival for the Planet - music, talks, dance, action event especially for young people with a Pasifika flavour. Hansen speaks 2.30 pm. More at www.planetfestival.org.nz Jeanette Fitzsimons for the steering group

Update on Fukushima

Just as the world's media continues to keep silent on events at Fukushima, RT has again done an interview indicating that all is not well.

Mexican drug gangs, US banks and the world economy

One part of Mike Ruppert's "Crossing the  Rubicon" that I could not get a hold on when I read it was where he asserts that it is drug money that keeps the world economy going.  I had therefore ignored this aspect of his work.

However, my attention was drawn to a lengthy article from the Observer recently on how a big US bank laundered billions from Mexico's murderous drug gangs.  


This article states that a US bank Wachovia, now part of Wells Fargo, between 2004 and 2007 laundered billions of dollars of money from the Mexican drug gangs and that this money entered the global financial system.

This was followed by an item on the Max Keiser Report which shows that proceeds from drugs were the only liquid investment capital available to banks on the brink of collapse.

When this source of liquidity dried up the US and world financial system was bankrupted and credit dried up.


So, the world financial system is kept going through money from cocaine and the human misery this creates....?

The second part of the video contains an interview with James Howard Kunstler.

Dr. Helen Caldicott on Fukushima

This video, although it seems it was filmed about a month ago has just been released onto the internet.

It is a talk by Australian physician and anti-nuclear campaigner Dr. Helen Calicott and gives the clearest account I have heard so far both of what is happening at Fukushima and the consequences for humanity.
It is a MUST SEE video.

Gulf of Mexico one year on

While our government is pushing the exploration of deep-water oil off the East coast of New Zealand and the media is basically saying that "all is well" one year after the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico here is a report from Russia Today that gets closer to the truth: 


I recommend you watch it

Events occurring thick and fast

Material has been coming through thick and fast, so much so that it is hard to keep up.

First you are following a revolution in Egypt, then the whole region explodes - Yemen, Bahrain, Syria.

Then there is an earthquake and a tsunami in northeastern Japan followed quickly by a partial meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear plant.

On Japan I found this excellent, well-thought-out article from a Canadian commentator on Japan's dependence on oil, which I can recommend.

On Fukushima this piece by CNN of a ghost town, Futaba within the evacuation zone stands out.

As I take my eyes off events in Northern Africa things get worse there as well as in the Middle East. Oil prices spike.

Meanwhile the prices of food increase, especially in places where people can scarcely afford, and along with oil the price of other commodities like gold and silver (which go up as the dollar goes down).  See this article about the situation in Kenya.

Zoellick from the World Bank said that the poor of the world are only 'one shock' away from crisis as food prices soar, while this article which gives 20 signs that a food crisis is happening is quite alarming.

As the people of Northern Africa and the Middle East demand their rights the people of Wisconsin try to defend theirs.

These few articles that I have picked up in the last few days paint a picture of what is happening in the United States.  As wealth becomes concentrated in the hands of the one percent, the poor are getting poorer and the middle class more impoverished.

The United States total debt according to the US debt clock is 55 trillion (that is 55 with 12 zeroes after it - can you imagine that amount of money? - I can't!).  

Whilst the official unemployment figures may not look so dire, this article which shows the proportion of people in the States in paid employment paints a different picture.

And then there is the story of Flint, Michigan (filmmaker Michael Moore's hometown) - what happens when a city runs out of money.

And the Los Angeles Times published this story about an increase in the number of people taking a punt on finding a petrol station with gas at an acceptable price - and running out.

The situation in Europe, especially Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Greece continue to deteriorate as the bailouts are predicated on an increase in GDP.  The stories coming out of Greece are indicative, like this one from the Telegraph and this from the Christian Science Monitor.  The Observer says the furious Greek public are pressing for default.

Finally this noteworthy article makes a connection between increases in the price of food and increase in revolutions, civil wars and violence.

That's a whole lot of material - but it's only an indication that things are changing very fast.

Bolivia enshrines natural world's rights with equal status for Mother Earth

Bolivia, the first South American country to elect an indigenous president (Evo Morales) is set to pass the world's first laws granting all nature equal rights to humans. The Law of Mother Earth, now agreed by politicians and grassroots social groups, redefines the country's rich mineral deposits as "blessings" and is expected to lead to radical new conservation and social measures to reduce pollution and control industry.


The details of this are available in this article by John Vidal, environment journalist for the Guardian.


The accompanying video portrays the effect that climate change is having on the the country as well as the contribution that can be made by indigenous populations in solving the energy and food crisis and global warming


In a world where we are used to seeing half-truths and non-action in the area of the environment it is pretty inspiring to see a small country taking a principled position on a crisis that affects it as well as the whole world.

Interview with James Howard Kunstler

It's a couple of months old now, but here is a very good interview by Max Keiser of James Howard Kunstler about Peak Oil issues.

Fukushima: First Person Trek Through A Radioactive Wasteland

In the weekend this video was posted of Japanese journalist traveling through deserted countryside to within 1.5 km of the Fukushima nuclear site.

Russia Today (RT) did an interview with the video journalist Tetsuo Jimbo.