Posts
This
is the article which first concluded that there could be global
extinction within one human lifetime, that has proved to be so
contrroversial
---Seemorerocks
“There
are no published, peer-reviewed studies of ANY of the 14
self-reinforcing feedbacks loops I know about.
There
a single study of one of the feedbacks (methane release from the
Arctic Ocean)”
---Guy
McPherson
Global
Extinction within one Human Lifetime as a Result of a Spreading
Atmospheric Arctic Methane Heat wave and Surface Firestorm
Malcolm
Light
9
Fenruary 2012
Abstract
Although
the sudden high rate Arctic methane increase at Svalbard in late 2010
data set applies to only a short time interval, similar sudden
methane concentration peaks also occur at Barrow point and the
effects of a major methane build-up has been observed using all the
major scientific observation systems. Giant fountains/torches/plumes
of methane entering the atmosphere up to 1 km across have been seen
on the East Siberian Shelf. This methane eruption data is so
consistent and aerially extensive that when combined with methane gas
warming potentials, Permian extinction event temperatures and methane
lifetime data it paints a frightening picture of the beginning of the
now uncontrollable global warming induced destabilization of the
subsea Arctic methane hydrates on the shelf and slope which started
in late 2010. This process of methane release will accelerate
exponentially, release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere
and lead to the demise of all life on earth before the middle of this
century.
Introduction
The
1990 global atmospheric mean temperature is assumed to be
14.49 oC
(Shakil, 2005; NASA, 2002; DATAWeb, 2012) which sets the 2 oC
anomaly above which humanity will lose control of her ability to
limit the effects of global warming on major climatic and
environmental systems at 16.49 oC
(IPCC, 2007). The major Permian extinction event temperature is 80 oF
(26.66 oC)
which is a temperature anomaly of 12.1766 oC
above the 1990 global mean temperature of 14.49 oC
(Wignall, 2009; Shakil, 2005).
Results
of Investigation
Figure
1 shows a huge sudden atmospheric spike like increase in the
concentration of atmospheric methane at Svalbard north of Norway in
the Arctic reaching 2040 ppb (2.04 ppm)(ESRL/GMO, 2010 - Arctic -
Methane - Emergency - Group.org). The cause of this sudden anomalous
increase in the concentration of atmospheric methane at Svalbard has
been seen on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf where a recent Russian
- U.S. expedition has found widespread, continuous powerful methane
seepages into the atmosphere from the subsea methane hydrates with
the methane plumes (fountains or torches) up to 1 km across producing
an atmospheric methane concentration 100 times higher than normal
(Connor, 2011). Such high methane concentrations could produce local
temperature anomalies of more than 50 oC
at a conservative methane warming potential of 25.
Figure
2 is derived from the Svalbard data in Figure 1 and the methane
concentration data has been used to generate a Svalbard atmospheric
temperature anomaly trend using a methane warming potential of 43.5
as an example. The huge sudden anomalous spike in atmospheric
methane concentration in mid August, 2010 at Svalbard is clearly
evident and the methane concentrations within this spike have been
used to construct a series of radiating methane global warming
temperature trends for the entire range of methane global warming
potentials in Figure 3 from an assumed mean start temperature of
-3.575 degrees Centigrade for Svalbard (see Figure 2) (Norwegian
Polar Institute; 2011).
Figure
3 shows a set of radiating Arctic atmospheric methane global warming
temperature trends calculated from the steep methane atmospheric
concentration gradient at Svalbard in 2010 (ESRL/GMO, 2010 -
Arctic-Methane-Emergency-Group.org). The range of extinction
temperature anomalies above the assumed 1990 mean atmospheric
temperature of 14.49 oC
(Shakil, 2005) are also shown on this diagram as well as the 80 oF
(26.66 oC)
major Permian extinction event temperature (Wignall, 2009).
Sam
Carana (pers. com. 7 Jan, 2012) has described large December 2011
(ESRL-NOAA data) warming anomalies which exceed 10 to 20 degrees
centigrade and cover vast areas of the Arctic at times. In the
centres of these regions, which appear to overlap the Gakkel Ridge
and its bounding basins, the temperature anomalies may exceed
20 degrees centigrade.
See
this site:-
The
temperature anomalies in this region of the Arctic for the period
from September 8 2011 to October 7, 2011 were only about 4 degrees
Centigrade above normal (Carana, pers. com. 2012) and this data set
can be seen on this site:-
Because
the Svalbard methane concentration data suggests that the major spike
in methane emissions began in late 2010 it has been assumed for
calculation purposes that the 2010 temperature anomalies peaked
at 4 degrees Centigrade and the 2011 anomalies at 20 degrees
Centigrade in the Gakkel Ridge region. The assumed 20 degree
Centigrade temperature anomaly trend from 2010 to 2011 in the
Gakkel Ridge region requires a methane gas warming potential of about
1000 to generate it from the Svalbard methane atmospheric
concentration spike data in 2010. Such high methane warming
potentials could only be active over a very short time interval (less
than 5.7 months) as shown when the long methane global warming
potential lifetimes data from the IPCC (2007; 1992) and Dessus,
Laponte and Treut (2008 ) are used to generate a global warming
potential growth curve with a methane global warming potential of 100
with a lifespan of 5 years.
Because
of the high methane global warming potential (1000) of the
2011, 20 oC
temperature anomalies in the Gakkel Ridge region, the entire methane
global warming potential range from 5 to 1000 has been used to
construct the radiating set of temperature trends shown in Figure 3.
The 50, 100, 500 and 1000 methane global warming potential (GWP)
trends are red and in bold. The choice of a high temperature methane
peak with a global warming potential near 1000 is in fact very
conservative because the 16 oC
increase is assumed to occur over a year. The observed ESRL-NOAA
Arctic temperature anomalies varied from 4 to 20 degrees over less
than a month in 2011 (Sam Carana, pers. comm. 2012).
Figure
4 shows the estimated lifetime of a globally spreading Arctic methane
atmospheric veil for different methane global warming potentials with
the minimum, mean and maximum lifetimes fixed with data from Dessus,
Laponche and Treut (2008) and IPCC (2007, 1992). On this
diagram it is evident that the maximum methane global warming
potential temperature trend of 50 intersects the 2 degree centigrade
temperature anomaly line in mid 2027 at which time humanity will
completely lose our ability to combat the earth atmospheric
temperature rise. This diagram also indicates that methane will be an
extremely active global warming agent for the first 15 years during
the early stages of the extinction process. At the 80 o F
(26.66 oC)
Permian extinction event temperature line (Wignall, 2009), which has
a 12.177 oC
temperature anomaly above the 1980 mean of 14.49 oC,
the lifetime of the minimum methane global warming
potential veil is now some 75 years long and the temperature so high
that total extinction of all life on earth will have occured by this
time.
The
life time from the almost instantaneous injection of methane into the
atmosphere in 2010 is also shown as the two vertical violet
lines (12 +- 3) years and this has been extended by 6 percent to
15.9 years to take account of increased methane concentrations
in the future (IPCC, 1992b). This data set can be used to set up the
likely start position for the extinction event from the large methane
emissions in 2010.
Figure
5 shows the estimated Arctic Gakkel Ridge earthquake frequency
temperature increase curve (Light, 2011), the Giss Arctic mean
November surface temperature increase curve (data from Carana, 2011)
and the mean global temperature increase curve from IPCC (2007) long
term gradient data. The corrected Arctic atmospheric temperature
curve for the ice cap melt back in 2015 was derived from the mean
time difference between the IPCC model ice cap and observed Arctic
Ice cap rate of volume decrease (Masters, 2009). The ice cap
temperature increase curve lags behind the Arctic atmosphere
temperature curve because of the extra energy required for the
latent heat of melting of the permafrost and Greenland ice caps (Lide
and Frederickse, 1995).
Figure
6 shows 5 mathematically and visually determined best estimates of
the possible global atmospheric extinction gradients for the minimum
(a), mean (b) and maximum (e) methane global warming potential
lifetime trends. The mean (c) methane global warming potential
lifetime trend has almost the identical gradient to the best
mathematical fit over the temperature extinction interval (2 oC
to 12.2 oC
temperature anomaly zone) as the Arctic Gakkel Ridge frequency data
(b) and the Giss Arctic mean November surface temperature data (d).
This suggests that the Giss Arctic mean November surface temperature
curve and the Arctic Gakkel Ridge frequency temperature curves are
good estimates of the global extinction temperature gradient.
Figure
7 diagramatically shows the funnel shaped region in purple, yellow
and brown of atmospheric stability of methane derived from Arctic
subsea methane eruption fountains/torches formed above destabilized
shelf and slope methane hydrates (Connor, 2011). The width of this
zone expands exponentially from 2010 with increasing temperature to
reach a lifetime of more than 75 years at 80 o F
(26.66 oC)
which is the estimated mean atmospheric temperature of the major
Permian extinction event (Wignall 2009). The previous most
catastrophic mass extinction event occured in the Permian when
atmospheric methane released from methane hydrates was the primary
driver of the massive mean atmospheric temperature increase to 80 oF
(26.66 oC)
at a time when the atmospheric carbon dioxide was less than at
present (Wignall, 2009).
Method
of Analysis
By
combining fractional amounts of an assumed standard Arctic methane
fountain/torch/plume with a global warming potential of 1000 (which
equals a 16 oC
temperature rise (4 - 20 oC)
over one year - 2010 - 2011) with the mean global temperature curve
(from IPCC 2007 - gradient data) it was possible to closely match the
5 visually and mathematically determined best estimates of the global
extinction gradients shown in Figure 6 (a to e). Because the thermal
radiant flux from the earth into space is a function of its area
(Lide and Fredrickse, 1995) we can roughly determine how many years
it will take for the methane to spread globally by getting the ratio
of the determined fraction of the mean global temperature curve to
the fraction of the Arctic methane fountain/torch/plume curve, as the
latter is assumed to represent only one year of methane emissions. In
addition as the earth's surface area is some 5.1*10^8 square
kilometres (Lide and Fredrickse, 1995) a rough estimate of the
average area of the region over which the methane emissions occur
within the Arctic can also be determined by multiplying the Arctic
methane/torch/plume fraction by the surface area of the earth. The
Arctic fountain/torch areas are expressed as the diameter of circular
region of methane emissions or the two axes A and B of an ellipse
shaped area of methane emissions (where B = 4A) (Table 1).
Twenty
estimates have been made of the times of the various extinction
events in the northern and southern hemispheres and these are shown
on Table 1 and summarised on Figure 7 with their ranges. The absolute
mean extinction time for the northern hemisphere is 2031.8 and for
the southern hemisphere 2047.6 with a final mean extinction time for
3/4 of the earth's surface of 2039.6 which is similar to the
extinction time suggested previously from correlations between
planetary orbital mechanics and the frequency increase of Great and
Normal earthquake activity on Earth (Light, 2011). Extinction in the
southern hemisphere lags the northern hemisphere by 9 to 29 years.
Figure
8 shows a different method of interpreting the extinction fields
defined by the (12 +-3) + 6% year long lifetime of methane (IPCC,
1992) assumed to have been instantaneously injected into the Arctic
atmosphere in 2010 and the lifetime of the globally spreading methane
atmospheric veil at different methane global warming potentials. The
start of extinction begins between 2020 and 2026.9 and extinction
will be complete in the northern hemisphere by 2057. Extinction will
begin around 2024 in the southern hemisphere and will be completed by
2087. Extinction in the southern hemisphere, in particular in
Antarctica will be delayed by some 30 years. This makes
property on the Transantarctic mountains of premium value for those
people wish to survive the coming methane firestorm for a few decades
longer.
Figure
9. is a further refinement of the extinction fields shown in Figure
8. by defining a new latent heat of ice melting curve at different
ambient temperatures which has been calculated from the corrected
Arctic atmospheric temperature trend for the ice cap melt back
defined by the difference between the Piomass observed melt back time
and the IPCC modelled melt back time which predicts the melt back
incorrectly some 50 years into the future (Masters, 2009). This work
shows that the IPCC climate models are probably more than 100 years
out in their prediction of the complete melting of the Greenland and
Antarctic ice caps.
Method
of Analysis
To
melt 1 kg of ice you require 334 kilo Joules of energy (the latent
heat of melting of ice) to transform the solid into the liquid at
0 oC
(Wikipedia, 2012 ). Subsequently for each one oC
temperature rise, the water requires and additional 4.18 kilo
Joules to heat it up to the ambient temperature (Wikipedia, 2012). An
80 oC
temperature rise of a 1 kg mass of water requires almost exactly the
same amount of energy input (334.4 kJ) as the amount of energy
required by the latent heat of melting of ice (334 kJ) to covert one
kg of ice into water at 0 oC.
Because one Joule is the energy equivalent of the power of one watt
sustained for one second there is also a time element in the melting
of the ice and the heating up of the water, i.e. it is the function
of temperature increase and the time similar to the way oil is
generated in sediments (Lopatin, 1971; Allen and Allen, 1990).
If
we consider the time necessary to melt one kg of ice and then raise
its temperature to 80 oC,
both of the above processes require the same amount of energy so we
can consider that the first half of the time will simply involve
conversion the solid ice into a liquid state at 0 oC
and the second half of the time in heating the resulting ice water
from 0 to 80 oC.
This means that the ice melt curve at 80 oC
will lag the atmospheric temperature line by half the time at 80 oC.
For
temperatures less than 80 oC,
the energy necessary to raise the water formed from the melted ice to
the ambient temperature is less than that required for the latent
melting of the ice (required to move it from a solid to a liquid
state) and progressively more relative energy is needed at low
temperatures to melt the ice.
The
following formulation has been used to calculate the ratio of the
time necessary for the melting of 1 kg of ice to water a
0 oC to
the time necessary for the heating up of the 1 kg of water produced
from the melted ice to the specified ambient temperature.
For
any power n, let 2^n represent the ambient temperature of 1 kg of
water which was derived from the melting of 1 kg of ice.
The
energy required for the original melting of the 1 kg ice to water at
0 oC (latent
heat of melting of ice) = 2^(n-3)/10 = 2^n/(2^3*10) = 2^n/80 =
ambient temperature/80
Examples;
Let
n=1; therefore temperature = 2^1 = 2 oC
Latent
heat of melting = 2^(n-3)/10 = 2^-2/10 = 1/10*1/(2^2) =1/10*1/4 =
1/40
Let
n=5; therefore temperature = 2^5 = 32 oC
Latent
heat of melting = 2^(n-3)/10 = 2^2/10 = 4/10
The
ratio of the time required for the latent heat of melting at any
temperature is the reciprocal of the above = 10/(2^n-3)
The
total time is therefore
a.)
The time necessary for the latent heat of melting to covert 1 kg of
ice into water
at
0 oC =
10/(2^n-3)
and:-
b.)
The time required to heat up the 1 kg of water up to a temperature of
2^n = 1.
The
total time = (10/(2^n-3)+1)
Therefore
the fraction of time needed to simply melt the ice to 0 oC before
it is raised to the ambient temperature 2^n =
10/(2^n-3)/((10/(2^n-3))+1)
Now:
((10/(2^n-3)) +1) = (10+ (2^n-3))/(2^(n-3))
The
total time is therefore = 10/(10+(2^n-3))
Examples
showing the calculation of the time ratio of the energy of latent
heat of melting of ice to form water at 0 oC to
the energy necessary to raise the water to the ambient temperature
are shown below:-
N
2^n oC
Fraction Formula Fraction
0
1
10/(10+1/8)
0.9877
1
2
10/(10+1/4)
0.9756
2
4
10/(10+1/2)
0.9526
3
8
10/(10+1)
0.9091
4
16
10/(10+2)
0.8333
5
32
10/(10+4)
0.7143
6
64
10/(10+8)
0.5555
6.32193
80
10/(10+10)
0.5000
The
time value at each temperature of the corrected Arctic atmospheric
temperature trend from the observed ice cap melt back (Masters, 2009)
has been multiplied by the above fraction for each ambient
temperature to determine a new "latent heat of ice melting
curve" which represents the temperature - time energy
necessary for the complete melting of the ice to water at
0 oC without
the additional energy needed to raise the water to the ambient
temperature of the atmosphere. This latent heat of ice melting curve
is shown as the dark blue line on Figure 9.
The
maximum mean global atmospheric temperature above which all the
world's icecaps will have completely melted away is estimated to lie
between 7 oC and
8 oC above
the mean global temperature which here is taken as 14.49 oC in
1990 (IPCC, 2007). The critical temperatures above which the Earth
will entirely lose its ice caps are between 21.49 oC and
22.49 oC.
It has been found however that the latent heat of ice melting curve
first intersects the maximum lifetime stability line for atmospheric
methane calculated from the methane global warming potentials (see.
Figure 3) at the 20.964 oC extinction
line (6.474 degrees centigrade above the atmospheric mean temperature
of 14.49 oC in
1980) at 2050.1 and the 22.49 oCextinction
line (8 oC above
the atmospheric mean temperature of 14.49 oC in
1980) at 2051.3. Therefore the limits of the final melting and loss
of all ice on Earth have been fixed between the 6.474 oC and
8 oC anomalies
above the 1990 mean atmospheric temperature of 14.49 oC.
This very narrow temperature range includes all the mathematically
and visually determined extinction times and their means for the
northern and southern hemispheres which were calculated quite
separately (Figure 7; Table 1).
Once
the world's ice caps have completely melted away at temperatures
above 22.49 oC and
times later than 2051.3, the Earth's atmosphere will heat up at an
extremely fast rate to reach the Permian extinction event temperature
of 80oF
(26.66 oC)(Wignall,
2009) by which time all life on Earth will have been completely
extinguished.
The
position where the latent heat of ice melting curve intersects the
8 oC extinction
line (22.49 oC)
at 2051.3 represents the time when 100 percent of all the ice on the
surface of the Earth will have melted. If we make this point on the
latent heat of ice melting curve equal to 1 we can determine the time
of melting of any fraction of the Earth's icecaps by using the
time*temperature function at each time from 2051.3 back to 2015, the
time the average Arctic atmospheric temperature curve is predicted to
exceed 0 oC.
The process of melting 1 kg of ice and heating the produced water up
to a certain temperature is a function of the sum of the latent
heat of melting of ice is 334 kilo Joules/kg and the final water
temperature times the 4.18 kilo Joules/Kg.K (Wikipedia, 2012). This
however represents the energy required over a period of one second to
melt 1 kg of ice to water and raise it to the ambient temperature.
Therefore the total energy per mass of ice over a certain time period
is equal to (334 +(4.18*Ambient Temperature)*time in seconds that the
melted water took to reach the ambient temperature. From the
fractional time*temperature values at each ambient temperature the
fractional amounts of melting of the total global icecaps have been
calculated and are shown on Figure 9.
The
earliest calculated fractional volume of melting of the global ice
caps in 2016 is 1.85*10^-3 of the total volume of global ice with an
average yearly rate of ice melting of 2.557*10^-3 of the total volume
of global ice. This value is remarkably similar to, but slightly less
than the average rate of melting of the Arctic sea ice measured over
an 18 year period of 2.7*10^-3 (1978 to 1995; 2.7% per decade -
IPCC 2007).This close correlation between observed rates of Arctic
ice cap and predicted rates of global ice cap melting indicates that
average rates of Arctic ice cap melting between 1979 and 2015 (which
represents the projected time the Arctic will lose its ice cover -
Masters, 2009) will be continued during the first few years of
melting of the global ice caps after the Arctic ice cover has gone in
2015 as the mean Arctic atmospheric temperature starts to climb above
0 oC.
However from 2017 the rate of melting of the global ice will start to
accelerate as will the atmospheric temperature until by 2049 it will
be more than 9 times as fast as it was around 2015 (Table 2).
The
mean rate of melting of the global icecap between 2017 and 2049 is
some 2*10^-2, some 7.4 times the mean rate of melting of the Arctic
ice cap (Table 2). In concert with the increase in rate of global ice
cap melting between 2017 and 2049, the acceleration in the rate of
melting also increases from 7*10^-4 to 9.9*10^-4 with a mean value
close to 8.6*10^-4 (Table 2). The ratio of the acceleration in the
rate of global ice cap melting to the Arctic ice cap melting
increases from 3.4 in 2017 to 4.8 by 2049 with a mean near 4.2. This
fast acceleration in the rate of global ice cap melting after 2015
compared to the Arctic sea ice cap melting before 2015 is because the
mean Arctic atmospheric temperature after 2017 is spiraling upward in
temperature above 0 oC adding
large amounts of additional energy to the ice and causing it to melt
back more quickly.
The
melt back of the Arctic ice cap is a symptom of the Earth's disease
but not its cause and it is the cause that has to be dealt with if we
hope to bring about a cure. Therefore a massive cut back in carbon
dioxide emissions should be mandatory for all developed nations (and
some developing nations as well). Total destruction of the methane in
the Arctic atmosphere is also mandatory if we are to survive the
effects of its now catastrophic rate of build up in the atmospheric
methane concentration However cooling of the Arctic using
geoengineering methods is also vitally important to reduce the
effects of the ice cap melting further enhancing the already out of
control destabilization of the methane hydrates on the Arctic shelf
and slope.
·
Developed
(and some developing) countries must cut back their carbon dioxide
emissions by a very large percentage (50% to 90%) by 2020 to
immediately precipitate a cooling of the Earth and its crust. If this
is not done the earthquake frequency and methane emissions in the
Arctic will continue to grow exponentially leading to our
inexorable demise between 2031 to 2051.
· Geoenginering
must be used immediately as a cooling method in the Arctic to
counteract the effects of the methane buildup in the short term.
However these methods will lead to further pollution of the
atmosphere in the long term and will not solve the earthquake
induced Arctic methane buildup which is going to lead to our
annihilation.
The
United States and Russia must immediately develop a net of powerful
radio beat frequency transmission stations around the Arctic using
the critical 13.56 MHZ beat frequency to break down the methane
in the stratosphere and troposphere to nanodiamonds and hydrogen
(Light 2011a) . Besides the elimination of the high global warming
potential methane, the nanodiamonds may form seeds for light
reflecting noctilucent clouds in the stratosphere and a light
coloured energy reflecting layer when brought down to the Earth by
snow and rain (Light 2011a). HAARP transmission systems are able to
electronically vibrate the strong ionospheric electric current that
feeds down into the polar areas and are thus the least evasive method
of directly eliminating the buildup of methane in those
critical regions (Light 2011a).
The
warning about extinction is stark. It is remarkable that global
scientists had not anticipated a giant buildup of methane in
the atmosphere when it had been so clearly predicted 10 to 20 years
ago and has been shown to be critically linked to extinction events
in the geological record (Kennett et al. 2003). Furthermore all the
experiments should have already been done to determine which
geoengineering methods were the most effective in
oxidising/destroying the methane in the atmosphere in case it should
ever build up to a concentration where it posed a threat to humanity.
Those methods need to be applied immediately if there is any faint
hope of reducing the catastrophic heating effects of the fast
building atmospheric methane concentration.
Malcolm
Light 9th February, 2012
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