Under-the-carpet developments on the Syrian Front

BFP Boston Terror Update 4- The Backdoor Deal & Needed Face-Saving Ingredient for Russia on Syria

Boiling Frogs,

1 May, 2013

The series of our analyses on the Boston Bombing-Syria-Russia-CIA connections continues with further related developments unfolding in the last few days. In my April 22 interview for Boiling Frogs Post EyeOpener Report I provided three possible US objectives associated with the Boston Terror incident. I emphasized the first possible scenario as the most likely: Removing Russia as the obstacle in invading Syria. I pointed out that to achieve this objective a back-door deal could have been struck with Russia. What sort of a deal? Here is what I hypothesized:

1-Our Back-Door Deal with Russia on Syria: Our soon-to-come Invasion of Syria immediately following the Boston Terror incident with Russia removing itself as an obstacle

2-Rise in “Radical Islamic Terror” in Russia’s Caucasus-mainly in the Chechnya and Dagestan region

3-Per Washington’s consent a major Russian crack-down in the Caucasus- US-Western governments support attributing this to Russia’s contribution in countering Global Islamic Terrorism

In my analyses of Boston Terror-CIA-Syria-Caucasus & Central Asia connections I have been emphasizing the need of a ‘Face-Saving’ ingredient for Russia in implementing its back-door deal with the United States. With the US placing the Caucasus and Central Asia on the map as the new hot-bed of radical terrorists and Russia’s ‘needed’ role in cracking down on the factions in the region, and with creating the face-saving scenario for Russia on its support of Syria.

Last week we had the Syria Chemical Weapons accusations a la Iraq surfacing, and that followed by Obama dialing Russia:

In a statement, the White House said on Monday that Mr Obama and Mr Putin talked on the phone on Monday, with the US leader “underscoring his concern over Syrian chemical weapons”…He warned that it would be a “game changer” for US policy if the reports about chemical weapons were to be proved true.

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Of course we know about one “Face-Saving” factor for Russia in withdrawing its support of Syria: The Geneva Protocol. Ironically over the last year or so Russia has been the side emphasizing the importance of the Geneva Protocol. First, let me start with the Geneva Protocol as it relates to the use of chemical Weapons:

The Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use in War of Asphyxiating, Poisonous or other Gases, and of Bacteriological Methods of Warfare, usually called the Geneva Protocol, is a treaty prohibiting the first use of chemical and biological weapons.

Here is Russia in July 2012 on its position on Syria and use of chemical weapons:

Russia Urges Syria to Abide by Geneva Protocol on Chemical Weapons

MOSCOW, July 25 (Xinhua) — Russia has told Syria that any use of chemical weapons would be unacceptable, the Russian Foreign Ministry said here on Wednesday. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov discussed the current situation in Syria with Syrian Ambassador to Russia Riyad Haddad, the ministry said in a statement on its website.

According to the statement, Bogdanov reminded the Syrian envoy that Damascus had joined the 1925 Geneva Protocol, which prohibited the use of chemical or biological weapons at war.”Russia made its position absolutely clear that it is unacceptable to threaten the use of chemical weapons and that Damascus must obey the Geneva Protocol,” the statement said.

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The U.S. has been setting up the Face-Saving factor for Russia further:

Tom Donilon, US national security adviser, visited Moscow two weeks ago, while John Kerry, secretary of state, is due to travel to Russia next week. At the same time, Mr. Obama is making a stronger effort to engage directly with Mr. Putin. The two leaders spoke on the phone earlier this week about Syria, and are due to hold two direct meetings over the next four months, including at the June G8 summit.

Administration officials believe that if the evidence of chemical weapons use can be strengthened, they will have an opportunity to change Mr. Putin’s calculus on the Syrian conflict. They insist that the US is not trying to undercut Russian interests in the Middle East and that Moscow would have a voice in the process to decide a post-Assad regime.

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The coming Kerry trip to Russia appears to be another move towards completion of the Face-Saving scenario for Russia:

Kerry to Make ‘Overdue’ First Visit to Russia

US Secretary of State John Kerry said today he would visit Russia next week for the first time since taking office, with a host of issues including the war in Syria clouding bilateral ties. His announcement came the day after President Barack Obama stepped up pressure on Moscow over Syria, telling Russian leader Vladimir Putin of his concern about the reported use of chemical weapons by the Damascus regime.

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Another related news tid-bit has also been buried in the mainstream news black hole:

Russian Navy Ships Ready to Evacuate Russians from Syria

Russian Navy ships in the Mediterranean are ready to evacuate Russian citizens from Syria, Captain Alexei Komarov, commander of a group of Black Sea Fleet landing ships, said upon arrival in Haifa abroad the large landing ship Azov on Wednesday, May 1. “Russian Navy ships are practicing combat training tasks in the area of Syria. There are ships of the Baltic and Black Sea Fleets there, but they are not engaged in any concrete operations there at the moment. We are standing ready and can evacuate Russian citizens from Syria,” Komarov said Azov of the Black Sea Fleet has called in Haifa for three days on the occasion of VE Day traditionally celebrated on May 9.

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For those of you who are easily taken in by the hot air put out by the Russian DM on Syria chemical weapons claims or the cosmetically cautious appearance put on by Obama on the importance of verifying the claims, I urge you to read in-between-the-lines, and try to get past the ‘appearances.’ A very classic made-up US script under Obama will likely follow these lines:

Appease the general public by faking ‘caution’ considering the previous administration’s “liar liar your pants on fire” experience with Iraq WMD claims. All that while cooking up a very similar web of deceptions.

Play the “US joining the international community and key organizations such as UN & NATO” card on the coming Syria attacks. Again, very similar to the Libya play-write, with a few distinct differences such as a Russia ingredient. Obama, once again, will be “joining” the international community in yet another war.

As for Russia:

Playing the strategically concocted Syria’s chemical weapons claim as a highly effective Face-Saving card in stepping aside on the coming attacks on Syria.

With all the recent conflict escalations in the Caucasus, enjoying its new internationally recognized and celebrated role in the international counterterrorism arena, and a major crackdown on the factions in the region.

Another highly possible ingredient in this Russia-US backdoor deal may be a deal on Iran: with the US guaranteeing no major escalation in the next couple of years. Syria maybe of ‘some’ importance to Russia, but Iran is of ‘much’ importance. If this hypothesis is true, then, we won’t be seeing any major escalation on the US-Israel-Iran front at least for a couple of years.