The New Zealand drought

That's the whole of the North Island and half the South Island in drought

Worse drought news: No rain on the horizon

The Government has declared a state of drought in the Buller and Grey Districts on the West Coast.

Stuff,

22 March, 2013

Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy said the decision was made after a meeting in Greymouth where local farmers called for the move.

"The rain over the last week has not been enough to help these districts, and there is only limited rain forecast for the next two weeks," he said.

"It is very unusual for the West Coast to experience drought conditions and is not something that local farmers are used to. It shows just how extreme this dry period has been."

He had been in touch with the local Rural Support Trust and Federated Farmers to get a feel for the situation on the ground and he was concerned to hear of frosts this week - a sign winter was on its way, which will slow pasture recovery.

The decision means extra government funding will be available to the local Rural Support Trust and open the way to Rural Assistance Payments from Work and Income.

They are equivalent to the unemployment benefit and are available to those in extreme hardship.

"Farmers should contact their accountant or the IRD if they need help or flexibility with the timing of tax payments, and standard hardship assistance is available from Work and Income," Guy said.

The entire North Island remains in a state of drought.

DRY FORECAST

Weather experts have heartbreaking news for farmers struggling to cope with drought throughout the country - no rain is likely for at least another 10 days.

However, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) scientists say long-term prospects - for the March to May period - are for near-normal rainfall.

Even that forecast is hedged with caution. Climate scientist Brett Mullan told a media conference that Niwa was not forecasting near-normal rain.

"But it is more likely. Think of it as a dartboard - if you are throwing a dart at it you are more likely to hit near-normal."

He described the drought, which covers almost all of the North Island and much of the South Island, as the "worst or equal worst in 70 years".

This was based on official records going back to 1972 and on data from isolated farms starting in the 1940s.

It was comparable in many regions to a severe 1946 drought.

Scientist Andrew Tait charted the progress of the drought from the start of year to a peak on March 16 in Northland, Auckland, Waikato and the eastern North Island.

Rain this week of 30 to 50 millimetres was only "a little bit of help".

"It will take heavy rainfall throughout March and April to get soil-moisture levels back to where they would normally be at this time of year," he said.

Rivers were also at record lows, Niwa said.

Hydrologist Roddy Henderson said river flows in 300 key catchments around New Zealand were in the bottom 10 per cent of all Februaries on record.

Such droughts were likely to become more frequent, chief climate scientist David Wratt said.

This year, high-pressure belts in the tropics had expanded further south than normal and this would become more common.

Work on the effect of rising greenhouse gas emissions showed a one-in-20-year drought would occur at least twice as often in the 2080s in parts of Otago, Canterbury, Marlborough, Wairarapa, Hawke's Bay, Bay of Plenty and Northland.

He said Niwa was working on improving its forecasting, looking up to two weeks ahead.

Big dry pressures being put on farmers

'I have farmed on the West Coast for the best part of 25 years and been in the industry all my life, and this is the biggest event in terms of a summer dry I’ve seen’

NZ Herald,

22 March, 2013

A West Coast farming expert says he is seeing first-hand the pressures being put on farmers battling to combat the effects of the big dry.

CRT technical feed specialist for the West Coast, Tasman and Marlborough, Andrew Mitchell said he'd seen a significant increase in demand for feed from farmers.

"The market changes from season to season, but we are definitely seeing a fairly significant rise in what we are doing.

"In terms of what I'm doing I am very busy, so it's a pretty good indication of what's happening.

"The difficulty has been securing good quality feed because there's a lot of it that's been going to the North Island."

Mr Mitchell said at the moment there was no supply of pine kernels, as current stocks had been exhausted.

He had also seen an increased demand for high-quality hay baleage and high-protein feeds, to help ensure dairy herds kept producing milk.

"I have farmed on the West Coast for the best part of 25 years and been in the industry all my life, and I'd say this is the biggest event in terms of a summer dry I've seen."

Mr Mitchell said another area of concern was the danger current conditions posed to the health of farming families.

"Definitely a significant impact on farmer mental health, and that's something we all need to be aware of, the stresses which are being put on the family as a unit.

"Because most farms are run as a family unit, the impact we are seeing in terms of cash flow is significant."

He said the severity of the dry weather also varied across the Coast.

"There are areas on the Coast which are significantly worse than others. Murchison certainly has seen quite a bit of rain.

"But perhaps Tapawera didn't, and the Grey Valley and Rotomanu, Inchbody, those areas are still under severe pressure from moisture."

Mr Mitchell was working hard to impress upon farmers the importance of working out how many animals they could afford to feed, and which needed to be dried off.

"That's one thing I have been trying to get farms to do, is to sit down and see what it's costing them to feed their cows every day, and assess what the milk yield is.

"Each farmer has to individually do that assessment to see whether it's viable for them going forward to continue milking."

Mr Mitchell said decisions on stock levels needed to be taken now to ensure farmers had enough feed put by to cater for their animals in the spring.

"What we are doing is trying to ensure people aren't digging themselves a bigger hole ... this is a significant event and it needs to be treated as such."