Seemorerocks: Zero Hedge on today's news from Syria

Turkey Warns Of War As

Syrian Army Heads To

Turkish Border

13 October, 2019

update2: A top Turkish official warns of bigger escalation now that Syrian Army units appear to be heading to besieged Kurdish towns along the border with Turkey.

Erdogan aide Yasin Aktay has said "conflict between the two armies" is likely if pro-Assad forces enter the northeast region which has now been abandoned by US troops.

* * *

update: It's official, after what appears a major deal between the Kurdish-led SDF and Damascus was struck in the wake of a US exit from the region:

"Syrian military forces will be deployed on the border with Turkey by tomorrow morning in certain areas," reports Danny Makki, a well-known war correspondent in Damascus.

This as multiple videos have spread online showing pro-Damascus forces entering Manbij:

Erdogan has reportedly vowed that pro-Turkish forces will continue their advance despite the Syrian Army apparently coming to the defense of besieged Kurdish forces.

It's as yet unclear what the Russian military's role in supporting its Syrian ally will be; however, we could be witnessing the beginnings of Putin's 'deal of the century' unfolding, as we explained previously.

But Russia is most definitely a lead player in the Damascus-YPG (and SDF) reunion that now appears to be unfolding.

* * *

A huge development after earlier in the day Sunday Defense Secretary Mark Esper announced Trump has ordered a "deliberate withdrawal" of 1,000 US troops in northeast Syria amid the advancing Turkish incursion: sources close to the Syrian government have announced the Syrian Army will move in to assist Kurdish militias in Kobani and Manbij.

This after shocking statements over the weekend by the head of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Mazlum Abdi, who told CNN, "I've been holding myself for two days from going to the press and saying that America abandoned us and that I would like you to get out of our areas now so that I can invite Russian and [Syrian] regime planes to take over this airspace."

Reuters now reports on the significant development which could see the Turkish and Syrian armies enter into direct confrontation: "The Lebanese broadcaster al-Mayadeen said on Sunday the Syrian army would deploy within 48 hours to the town of Kobani which is held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and the nearby town of Manbij which is controlled by SDF-aligned forces."

"The Syrian Governmental Forces (SAA) are preparing to enter the region of Kobani today, based on an agreement with the Syrian Democratic Forces," Syrian official Mohammed Shaheen, was cited as saying.

As early as last week the SDF was reportedly engaged in intensifying talks with Damascus over assistance from the Syrian Army, after the US withdrew its air support for the Kurdish-led group amid the Turkish assault.

On Monday the commander of the US trained and armed SDF, Mazlum Abdi, indicated just that in a bombshell statement: “We are considering a partnership with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, with the aim of fighting Turkish forces.”

Though Damascus has yet to confirm an official deal with YPG/SDF forces, state-run SANA did say on Sunday that national forces were moving north to "confront" Turkish forces and its "aggression".

Military analysis site, The Defense Post, reports on the potential direct cooperation between the Syrian Army and SDF to push out the Turks:

Kobani official General Ismet Sheikh Hasan said that Russian and Syrian government troops could enter Kobani and Manbij by Sunday night to help secure the cities from a Turkish incursion.

“We did everything we could,” he said. “We have called upon the West [and] the Arab Union but no one is coming to help, so we have no one other than ourselves to defend [Kobani]. Kurdish youth should come and defend their homes, and people should not abandon their homes – this is our land. It looks like this is the fate of the Kurds, to go through this each time.”

Damascus officials had subsequently denied that it was engaged in a wide-ranging deal, however, Sunday's reported development of Syrian Army forces to the north could be the beginning of a more significant deal in the words.

The United States has blocked such talks and cooperation for years, but the White House now appears ready to wash its hands of the matter.

"Anarchy" As 750 ISIS

Prisoners Escape Syria Camp

After Turkish Shelling

Zero Hedge,

13 October, 2019

International reports as well as Turkish media has confirmed a mass ISIS prison break at a Syrian Kurdish administered camp following shelling on the area by Turkey's military. Nearly 800 prisoners with links to the Islamic State reportedly fled, though one monitoring group put the number of those who ultimately successfully escaped at 100.

The Guardian reported of the Sunday incident:

At least 750 people with suspected links to Islamic State have reportedly fled a displacement camp in north-east Syria, local officials have said, raising fears that the Turkish offensive against Kurdish forces in the area could lead Isis to regain strength amid the chaos.

Sources said the detainees began to riot and panic after the secure compound came under Turkish shelling, which further resulted in a state of "anarchy" at the camp.

*File image of ISIS families at al-Hol camp, via AP/Washington Post*

Authorities say "ISIS sleeper cells" took advantage of the situation to mount a large scale prison break, attacking remaining prison guards who had not already fled to defensive positions amid the shelling.

Syrian Kurdish authorites say say 249 women and 700 children of the “caliphate” had been held at the Ain Issa camp, and that US forces subsequently evacuated the remainder of the camp's inhabitants to another secure location after the incident. Reuters, citing a Syrian war monitor, suggested that not all of the some 750 who fled ultimately were able to escape:

Around 100 people - women affiliated with Islamic State and their children - have escaped from a camp guarded by Syrian Kurdish-led security forces in northern Syria, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

Images published by the Syrian opposition media outlet SOHR showed ISIS families escaping Ain Issa by running through the nearby countryside.

Ain Issa had a prior population of over 200,000 but has since been emptied of nearly all of its civilian residents. Scores of civilian casualties have resulted from the Turkish offensive, now in its fifth day, which has come under condemnation by almost every country.

Current and former US defense officials have warned of an "ISIS resurgence" amid the US troop draw down and Turkish invasion of the region, especially after SDF leaders warned its fighters can no longer safely guard the thousands of ISIS prisoners in custody.

Estimates commonly put the number of imprisoned ISIS terrorists in US-SDF custody in the northeast Syria at 11,000.

Further some 70,000 family members believed linked to the former 'caliphate' are being held at the sprawling al-Hol camp, also under threat after internal camp rioting has been reported there.

Turkey, for its part, has claimed that "YPG/PKK" forces deliberately set the Ain Issa camp on fire, denying Western reports that it came under Turkish shelling.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has said sanctions on Turkey are "ready to go" as Erdogan has refused to uphold his "responsibilities" related to the operation, which including promises to take custody of ISIS prisoners in the area. Trump has threatened reprisals should Turkey allow even one terrorist to go free.

US Troops Can Fire Back If Turkey Attacks Positions Again, Pentagon Says

Zero Hedge,

13 October, 2019

Defense Secretary Mark Esper told "Face the Nation" on Sunday that remaining US troops were caught between Turkish forces and the SDF and that it would be “irresponsible for me to keep them in that position.” Revealing that Trump has ordered “a deliberate withdrawal” from Northern Syria “as safely and quickly as possible,” which includes some 1,000 troops — Esper further addressed controversy surrounding a Friday incident where a US base in Kobani came under Turkish artillery fire.

"And so we find ourselves, we have American forces likely caught between two opposing advancing armies, and it's a very untenable situation," Esper said. According to defense officials speaking to The Washington Post this weekend, the Army believes Turkish artillery fire on American positions in Kobani were deliberate, specifically accusing Turkey of 'bracketing' U.S. forces by firing on both sides of the observation post.

Esper was asked about this dangerous escalation, to which he responded that US troops "have the right to self defense and we will execute it if necessary" — thus indicating that American forces in Syria have been given the green light to fire back if fired upon. “A senior Pentagon official said shelling was so heavy that the U.S. personnel considered firing back in self-defense,” a prior report cited.

"A contingent of U.S. Special Forces has been caught up in Turkish shelling against U.S.-backed Kurdish positions in northern Syria," Newsweek initially reported of the Friday incident.

The Newsweek report cited an "Iraqi Kurdish intelligence official and senior Pentagon official" to say that "Special Forces operating in the Mashtenour hill in the majority-Kurdish city of Kobani fell under artillery fire from Turkish forces" amid operations related to 'Operation Peace Spring'.

"We had been there for months, and it is the most clearly defined position in that entire area," an Army officer told the Post. Multiple 155mm shells fell "within a few hundred yards of the base on Mistenur Hill," the officer said.

Later reports suggested the US contingent had temporarily withdrawn from their position in Kobani as a result, but a Pentagon official subsequently said U.S. troops had not withdrawn from Kobane.

Brett McGurk, a former White House anti-ISIL special envoy to the region under both Trump and Obama, wrote on Twitter of the incident: "[The shelling] was not a mistake."

“Turkey wants us off the entire border region to a depth of 30 kilometers,” McGurk also told the Post. “These were warning shots on a known location, not inadvertent rounds.”

It now appears, however, that the White House wants to avoid even the possibility that such a close encounter could happen again, given the newly announced "deliberate withdrawal" of American forces from any position in the path of the Turkish incursion.

Trump Orders Full

Withdrawal From Northern

Syria, Warns Sanctions On

Turkey "Ready To Go"

Defense Secretary Mark Esper told "Face the Nation" in a Sunday interview that the Trump administration is "preparing to evacuate" about 1,000 U.S. troops from northern Syria "as safely and quickly as possible," CBS reports.

"In the last 24 hours, we learned that [the Turks] likely intend to extend their attack further south than originally planned, and to the west," Esper said. "We also have learned in the last 24 hours that the... SDF are looking to cut a deal, if you will, with the Syrians and the Russians to counterattack against the Turks in the north."

This as President Trump has also announced the US Treasury is "ready to go" with sanctions on Turkey.

This also comes after a week ago Trump ordered the withdrawal of US troops from northern border posts ahead of a Turkish military incursion to establish a so-called 'safe zone'. That decision has been met with fierce push back among Congressional leaders and pundits, angry at the US "betrayal" of its Syrian Kurdish partners, namely the US-funded and trained Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

In his comments to "Face the Nation," set to air on Sunday, Esper further explained that American forces were now caught between the Turkish assault and the SDF.

"And so we find ourselves, we have American forces likely caught between two opposing advancing armies, and it's a very untenable situation," Esper said. "So I spoke with the president last night, after discussions with the rest of the national security team, and he directed that we begin a deliberate withdrawal of forces from northern Syria."

Following a Friday incident wherein Turkish artillery shells landed near US positions in Kobani, Pentagon officials accused Turkey of deliberately "bracketing" American forces by firing on both sides of the observation post.

While Turkey claimed it was a 'mistake,' US officials said Ankara had known about that specific base for months and that it could have only been intentional.

Esper said on Sunday that US troops "have the right to self defense and we will execute it if necessary" when asked about the incident and future rules of engagement.

Meanwhile Trump tweeted early Sunday: “Very smart not to be involved in the intense fighting along the Turkish Border, for a change. Those that mistakenly got us into the Middle East Wars are still pushing to fight. They have no idea what a bad decision they have made. Why are they not asking for a Declaration of War?”

For now it's unlikely that this means all American forces will make a complete exit from Syria.

When pressed on a timeline for the pullback, Esper merely said it would be done "as safely and quickly as possible"; but given US forces appear to be in the line of Turkish artillery fire, a pullback will no doubt come sooner than later — if not occurring already.

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