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Monday, 13 January 2025

Antarctic sea ice extent - who's telling the truth?

 

Sam Carana of the Arctic News blog is using this data to say the sea ice has never been in such a parlous state.

The above images, adapted from University of Bremen and ClimateReanalyzer.org, illustrate the decline in thickness (in cm) and of Antarctic sea ice between August 27, 2024, and January 9, 2025, and the sea ice concentration on January 9, 2025.

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/01/sea-ice-decline-january-2025.html

Yet, if we look at another data set (NOAA), it tells a different story.

Compare that with 1981

A comparison

Image

SOURCE: https://x.com/TonyClimate/status/1878410265890267635

Something does not compute!

Every year, almost, since 2012 Sam Carana of the Arctic News blog has been repeating the same prediction of near-term human extinction.

EXTINCTION BY 2026?

There are numerous mechanisms that could strongly accelerate the temperature rise, such as loss of sea ice and changes in ocean currents that could cause oceans to take up less heat and more heat to remain in the atmosphere. The dangers increase as sea surface temperatures keep rising.

The Northern Hemisphere, where seasonal temperature peaks are more extreme, could be hit strongly. One of the largest dangers is that huge amounts of methane could erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and from thawing permafrost. The images illustrate the danger, showing an even steeper rise of sea surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere.

As temperatures keep rising, feedbacks can be expected to kick in with accelerating ferocity, such as more water vapor in the atmosphere, less lower clouds and changes to wind patterns, further accelerating the temperature rise and contributing to extreme weather disasters hitting the world more frequently over larger areas, with greater intensity and for longer periods. On land on the Northern Hemisphere, the danger of rapidly rising temperatures is particularly high. This can trigger widespread flooding, fires, drought, famine, heat stress, storms and other weather disasters, while crop loss, loss of habitable land and corrupt politicians threaten to cause violent conflicts to erupt around the world.

Changes in aerosols could cause temperatures to rise strongly in the Northern Hemisphere and in particular in the Arctic. As industrial activity grinds to a halt, temperatures could rise due to a loss of cooling aerosols that are currently masking the full wrath of the temperature rise.

At the same time, releases of heating aerosols could increase due to more burning of wood and biofuel, more forest fires, peat field fires and urban fires, and more burning of industrial facilities and waste pits. Black and brown carbon cause the air temperature to rise, while they also darken the surface when settling down, thus further speeding up the decline of the snow and ice cover in the Arctic.

These mechanisms could jointly cause the global temperature to rise above 3°C from pre-industrial and drive many species (including humans) into extinction by 2026.

From the post 'Sea ice decline January 2025', at:

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/.../sea-ice-decline...

Now, just tell me how you can make a hockeystick out of the data used!

Talking about hockeysticks. A little while ago I followed the court case of Mark Steyn vs. Michael Mann when the hockey stick fraud was laid bare but a liberal Washington DC jury, despite the clear evidence, found against Steyn.

Michael Mann stands accused

·
30 January 2024
Michael Mann stands accused

Mark Steyn's Opening Statement

This is important to me because it made me change my mind on the climate change/global warming agenda.

Now, we have this today

Pay Up, Mr. Mann

Michael E. Mann outside of the H. Carl Moultrie Courthouse in Washington, D.C., February 5, 2024(Pete Kiehart for The Washington Post via Getty Images)

For more than eight years, the climate scientist Michael Mann harassed National Review through litigation over a blog post — until, eventually, the First Amendment brought an end to his attack. This week, a court in our nation’s capital ordered Mann to pay us $530,820.21 worth of attorney’s fees and costs, and to do so within 30 days. It is time for him to get out his checkbook, and sign on the dotted line.

This restitution is welcome, if incomplete. As was made clear during the discovery process, Mann’s explicitly stated intention was to use a “major lawsuit” as a vehicle with which to “ruin National Review.” Happily, Mann failed in this endeavor. But, while all’s well that ends well, his failure exacted costs nevertheless. Between 2012 and 2019 — with the courts inexplicably refusing to apply legal provisions ostensibly designed to prevent frivolous lawsuits such as Mann’s — we were forced to spend a considerable amount of time and money defending ourselves against his malicious, meritless suit. Between 2019 and now, we have been obliged to expend yet more effort trying to recoup at least some of our costs. This week’s award will not undo all of the damage that Mann has inflicted upon us, and upon journalism more broadly — we had asked for $1 million in fees and costs, and even that was a fraction of what we have spent — but it will, at least, go some way toward making us whole.

The details of Mann’s conduct here remain shocking — especially in a nation such as the United States, which was built atop the foundations of free expression. All those years, all those words, all of that litigation, over . . . a couple of blog posts that criticized Mann for an argument that he had offered up during a quotidian political dispute. Science — to which Mann is supposed to be devoted — inevitably involves disagreement. And yet, Mann proved incapable of handling dissent. Instead of engaging in debate, he sued us — for defamation and for the infliction of emotional distress. This, suffice it to say, is not how debate in America should work.

The legal system hasn’t covered itself in glory, either. Our own justice was repeatedly delayed, and, when it arrived, it was via the back door rather than as part of a ringing endorsement of the right to free speech. And, disgracefully, both of our co-litigants, Mark Steyn and Rand Simberg, have been ordered to pay damages. It is often said that, in extended legal proceedings such as these, the process can serve as the punishment. So it has been. Or, at least, so it had been, until now. Hitherto, Michael Mann has engaged in his censorship campaign with impunity. The award of fees has finally exacted a price.

The promise of American law is that there will be material consequences for bad behavior, and, after twelve years, there finally have been. Mann’s behavior throughout has been appalling. Now, he must pay up.

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