The gif of the sea ice thickness you had playing at the end had the top part not showing. It shows the 30 days thickness but that includes the 7 day forecast. So when it finishes it is showing the forecast through to August 13th. Not sure however about the forecast model they are using to generate this as I've been watching it for a couple of weeks and the forecast has been constantly predicting less.
If you look at the forecast on the 29th July for the 6th August https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2020072912_2020080600_930_arcticictn.001.gif
And compare this to the 6th August image generated on the 5th of August https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2020080512_2020080600_930_arcticictn.001.gif
There 6th August is thickness is much greater still than what was forecast. Then if you look at the 13th August forecast it is nearly the same as the 6th August forecast generated on the 29th July https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2020080512_2020081300_930_arcticictn.001.gif
This seems to be showing that the forecast model is over estimating the sea ice melt. I would suggest that it may be becoming inaccurate as the ice thickness becomes very low and factors that had less influence when it was thicker are now having a smaller influence but not really sure why this would be. Going back through the data and doing this same comparison across different periods of the melt season and different ice thicknesses would give a clear indication if there appeared to be a consistent bias.
The gif of the sea ice thickness you had playing at the end had the top part not showing. It shows the 30 days thickness but that includes the 7 day forecast. So when it finishes it is showing the forecast through to August 13th. Not sure however about the forecast model they are using to generate this as I've been watching it for a couple of weeks and the forecast has been constantly predicting less.
ReplyDeleteIf you look at the forecast on the 29th July for the 6th August
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2020072912_2020080600_930_arcticictn.001.gif
And compare this to the 6th August image generated on the 5th of August
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2020080512_2020080600_930_arcticictn.001.gif
There 6th August is thickness is much greater still than what was forecast.
Then if you look at the 13th August forecast it is nearly the same as the 6th August forecast generated on the 29th July
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2020080512_2020081300_930_arcticictn.001.gif
This seems to be showing that the forecast model is over estimating the sea ice melt. I would suggest that it may be becoming inaccurate as the ice thickness becomes very low and factors that had less influence when it was thicker are now having a smaller influence but not really sure why this would be. Going back through the data and doing this same comparison across different periods of the melt season and different ice thicknesses would give a clear indication if there appeared to be a consistent bias.