Iran and Trump on the edge of the abyss
Iran
is not inclined to help Trump come down from the tree he has climbed
and would rather keep him confused and cornered.
22
June, 2019
Iran
is pushing US President Donald Trump to the edge of the abyss,
raising the level of tensions to new heights in the Middle East.
After the sabotage of
four tankers at al-Fujairah and the attack on the Aramco pipeline
a month ago, and last week’s attack on two
tankers in
the Gulf of Oman, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC – now
categorized by the USA as a terrorist body) yesterday shot down a US
Navy drone,
sending two clear messages. The first message is that Iran is ready
for an all-out war, no matter what the consequences. The second
message is that Iran is aware that the US President has cornered
himself; the embarrassing attack came a week after Trump launched his
electoral campaign.
According
to well-informed sources, Iran rejected a
proposal by US intelligence – made via a third party – that
Trump be allowed to bomb one, two or three clear objectives, to be
chosen by Iran, so that both countries could appear to come out as
winners and Trump could save face. Iran categorically rejected the
offer and sent its reply: even
an attack against an empty sandy beach in Iran would trigger a
missile launch against US objectives in the Gulf.
Iran
is not inclined to help Trump come down from the tree he has climbed
and would rather keep him confused and cornered. Furthermore, Iran
would love to see Trump fail to win a second term, and will do
everything to help oust him from the White House at the end of his
mandate in 2020.
Moreover, Iran
has established a joint operations room to inform all its allies in
Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan of every step it is
adopting in confronting the US in case of all-out war in the Middle
East. Iran’s
allies have increased their level of readiness and alert to the
highest level; they will participate in the war from the moment it
begins if necessary. According to sources, Iran’s allies will not
hesitate to open fire against an already agreed on bank of objectives
in a perfectly organised, orchestrated, synchronised and graduated
response, anticipating a war that may last many months.
Sources
confirmed that, in case of war, Iran aims to stop the flow of oil
from the Middle East completely, not by targeting tankers but by
hitting the sources of oil in every single Middle Eastern country,
whether these countries are considered allies or enemies. The
objective will be to cease all oil exports from the Middle East to
the rest of the world.
Trump
is trying to find a way out and calm tensions, stopping short of
doing anything to ease the sanctions on Iran. It was the US President
who triggered the current crisis by revoking the JCPOA nuclear deal
at Benjamin Netanyahu’s request.
Trump
wants to see Iran suffer from the severe US sanctions for the
duration of his presidential campaign. This status-quo is congenial
to Trump but catastrophic for Iran.This
is why Iran refused to go along with a scenario which would make
Trump look like a winner by bombing locations in Iran, claiming he
had destroyed the exact locations from which the missile was fired
against his drone.
Trump
wants to win the war of appearances, but is facing an Iranian regime
as unaccommodating to him as he has been to Iran. Trump seems
oblivious of the fact that economic embargo is an act of war; by
unilaterally blocking the export of Iranian oil and so crippling
Iran’s economy, Trump has already declared war on Iran.
In
response to the latest incidents, the US sent only
limited reinforcements to
the Middle East last week. According to sources, these forces were
composed of several drone teams and a strike force capable of
intervening in case of future attacks on oil tankers. The downing of
the drone was Iran’s message to the US that nothing is off limits:
all gloves are off. The Iranian message, made explicit already last
year by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and
other political and military officials,
is clear: if we can’t export our oil, nobody can. But this message
seems not to have reached Trump’s ears.
The
US media claim that
President Trump approved military strikes against Iran but revoked
the order hours later. What actually happened – according to the
source – is the following:
Iran
was informed in advance by a third party of a proposal by US
intelligence that Iran selects one or two or three empty locations
for the US to bomb. This was intended to make everyone happy by
saving face for all concerned. Iran refused to play along with this
charade, which was ultimately designed to save face for Trump.
Nonetheless, Iran was reassured by this offer that the US has no
intention of going to war and is trying to find a way out of its
quandary; Trump is looking for a way out.
It
is Trump’s desire to avoid war that makes him susceptible to
Iranian pressure. Trump will be in an even more critical position
domestically if Iranian missiles target Middle Eastern oil. Iran is
offering only two choices to the US President: end the embargo on
Iranian oil or go to war. Sources acknowledge that the future is
uncertain and potentially very dangerous for the region and the
global economy, since Iran will definitely not stop in its plans to
halt all oil tanker navigation if its own oil cannot be exported.
Iran
and the US are already at war economically. A way out of this crisis
would be for Trump to close his eyes while allowing Europe to work to
lift the economic pressure on Iran, without sanctioning the European
companies concerned. Otherwise, there may be no escape from a
regional and global catastrophe.
Proofread
by: Maurice
Brasher and C.G.B.
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