As
US Exits, Syrian Army Raises Flag Over Kurdish Province For 1st Time
Since War's Start
28
December, 2018
update: The
Pentagon says US forces are still in the area of Manbij city:
Currently,
the Syrian Army has deployed around the city saying it stands ready
to protect it from nearby pro-Turkish forces. This as the Syrian Arab
Army announced it "raised
the flag of the Syrian Arab Republic there" as
confirmed by Russian television footage from on the ground.
Meanwhile
the local MMC, or SDF Manbij Military Council appears to still
maintain authority in the city in coordination with the Syrian Army.
There appears a quiet status quo and possible indirect
negotiations happening between US, SDF, and Syrian Army forces, with
broader negotiations between Turkey and Russia — the
latter which controls the airspace above the province.
On
the ground there's a tense and potentially volatile yet still stable
situation still holding, reflected in the following interesting
scenario:
The
YPG has announced its withdrawal to locations east of the Euphrates
and a steady peace is holding while a massive Turkish force is
mustered.
* *
*
After
days of Turkey mustering huge military forces poised to enter the
northwestern Syrian Kurdish town of Manbij, and just as American
advisers have pulled out of the area based on Trump's broader Syria
draw down, what many analysts saw as impossible throughout seven
years of war has suddenly happened: the de facto autonomous Syrian
Kurdish region hasformally
invited the Syrian Army to take control to prevent the invading Turks
from seizing it.
Damascus
has now confirmed government forces have entered Manbij in a move
likely to stave off a full-scale Turkish offensive. An official
statement said
government forces were already entering the city in what is among the
most historic moments signalling Assad is likely to take back all of
natural Syria: “Considering
the Arab Army’s duty and in a response to a call by the people of
Manbij, the Syrian general staff announces that the Army has entered
Manbij and raised the flag of the Syrian Arab Republic there,” the
statement cited by Syrian media said.
Syrian
pro-government channels indeed showed the national flag raised over
municipal buildings in Manbij early Friday.
As
pro-Turkish rebels as well as Turkey's Army stationed forces along
the province's western border for what Ankara called an
"anti-terrorist operation" around the city, with the
Kurdish YPG being the target (as Ankara considers the group an
extension of the outlawed PKK), the Syrian Army likewise has built up
troops in the area over the past days ready to take back sovereign
Syrian territory.
Shortly
before handover the town to the Syrian Army, the YPG issued an
official statement announcing
its withdrawal to positions east of the Euphrates where it will
engage remaining ISIS pockets.
The YPG spokesman
stated:
In conjunction with this, we invite the Syrian government forces which are obliged to protect the same country, nation and borders, to assert control over the areas our forces have withdrawn from, in particularly Manbij, and to protect these areas against a Turkish invasion.
The
Syrian Army statement meanwhile declared further that the army is
determined to “crush
terrorism and defeat all invaders and occupiers” and
to establish security for all Syrian citizens.
In
response, Turkey's President Erdogan said in a speech on Friday that
with the withdrawal of the YPJ "there
will be nothing for us to do there," according
to Reuters.
Crucially his words came just after the Syrian Army announced its
entry into Manbij.
“In
the current situation, we are still supporting the integrity of
Syrian soil. These areas belong to Syria. Once the terrorist
organizations leave the area, we will have nothing left to do there,”
Erdogan told reporters after Friday prayers in Istanbul.
However, sporadic
fighting between the Syrian Army and Turkish-backed jihadists could
break out on the peripheries of the province.
It
appears that once President Trump announced a "full" and
"immediate" pullout of the some 2,000-4000 US forces in
northern Syria last week, Turkey, Russia, the YPG, and Damascus
quickly began deal-making with the Kurds being dealt the weakest hand
by the surprise US pullout. Prior to this week, there were two
American military bases in Manbij: at Aoun Dadat and S'aydiyeh.
According
to journalist Elijah Magnier, reporting from the ground for Al
Rai Media,
the rapidly moving events are historic
and hugely significant in that "The
Kurds are returning to Syria and therefore rejecting the
USA and France."
Magnier
continued, "Today
we can confirm that President Trump was/is serious about the
withdrawal of his troops from the occupied province of al Hasaka-Deir
Ezzor." And
the Middle East based war correspondent confirmed the major players
have begun coordinating amidst still ongoing broader
negotiations:
Russia coordinated with Turkey for the control of the Syrian army over Manbij. The Syrian troops raised the Russian and Syrian flags over some area of the city following the absence of all Kurdish armed presence (important) in Manbij. The case is closed. East of the Euphrates next.
No
doubt Friday's rapid developments will further frustrate the
Washington pro-interventionist pundits and officials who've long
lobbied Trump to "stay the course" in Syria, and who were
enraged at his announced troop pullout; however, it now appears peace
and stability may be fast returning to Syria quicker than expected.
Syrian
Army Liberates Manbij While Turkish Army Lays in Wait miles away
28
December, 2018
The
Syrian Arab Army (SAA) reclaimed the city of Manbij and raised the
Syrian Flag over buildings in that area to signify it is once again
Syrian government territory.
The
video below shows elements of the SAA arriving in Manbij:
Kurds
who live in and around Manbij are now the target of the Turkish
Government, who calls them "offshoots of Terrorism." Turkey
has, since Christmas Day, been sending troops and armor to "cleanse
all kurds" from the region.
While
the SAA firmly states they are now in control of Manbij, columns of
troops and armor from Turkey are massing less than five miles away,
as seen below:
More
Turk troops and gear are presently crossing into Syria from Turkey at
Jarablus as shown below:
Intel
is sparse right now as to the intentions of the Turks. Russia
explicitly told Turkey to stay out of Syria and to allow the SAA to
takeover all areas abandoned by the departing Americans, but
Turkey is not doing that.
It
is not certain if Turkey will try to make good on its declared intent
to cleanse the region of Kurds. If Turkey begins such an
effort, there are all sorts of things that can go wrong - not the
least of which would be a direct confrontation with the SAA, which is
backed-up by Russia.
Things
are very much "on-edge" in this area right now, and few
people have any idea how things will turn out.
Russian
Foreign Minister Lavrov made a candid remark about all this and the
U.S. withdrawal from Syria: “It
might be an attempt to shift responsibility to the US regional
partners... We also expect WH to explain us the idea [of the
w/drawal]. We are waiting for US actions after their words. Quite
often they don’t do what they say.”
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