Reports: Syrian Army Begins MAJOR ASSAULT on Southern Idlib

I have no time to confirm this story so am posting it 'as is'.

DESPITE WARNINGS FROM U.S., Syrian Army Begins MAJOR ASSAULT on Southern Idlib

Hal Turner,

17 November, 2018

 

Despite being warned TWICE by the United States (September 4 and again September 7) against commencing an attack upon Idlib, Syria, the Syrian Army unleashed a major assault across the southeastern part of Idlib province on Saturday. 

According to a source, government forces pounded jihadist defenses across the southeast Idlib axis with a plethora of artillery shells and surface-to-surface missiles. This comes despite explicit U.S. insistence back in September that no offensive military operations be carried out against Idlib for fear of a massive humanitarian crisis.

This latest exchange between the Syrian military and jihadist rebels comes as the Sochi Agreement falls apart in northwestern Syria, and in response to a Friday attack by jihadists which killed 22 Syrian soldiers near a planned buffer zone around the country’s last major anti-Assad and al-Qaeda held region. The jihadist strikes resulted in the highest number of casualties for the army since the Sochi Agreement was established on September 17th.

Though the Syrian war has grown cold in terms of international spotlight and media interest since September, it is likely again going to ramp up dramatically over the next few months. 

The primary targets for the Syrian Army were the trenches and military posts for Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham in the towns of Al-Taman’ah, Khuwayn, Babulin, Haish, Jarjanaz, Um Jalal, and Mashirfah Shmaliyah. In retaliation for the Syrian Army assault, the jihadist rebels began shelling the government towns of Ma’an, Um Hariteen, and ‘Atshan.

Damascus has been critical of the Sochi deal from the start as it's criticized Turkey's role in the Russian-brokered ceasefire plan, especially as a proposed 'de-militarized' zone has failed due to jihadist insurgents still holding around 70% of the planned buffer area which they were supposed to withdraw from by mid-October. Sporadic clashes have rocked the "buffer zone" since.

Russia itself recently acknowledged the on the ground failure of the Sochi agreement even as parties officially cling to it. During a Thursday press briefing by Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova admitted the following: 

We have to state that the real disengagement in Idlib has not been achieved despite Turkey’s continuing efforts to live up to its commitments under the Russian-Turkish Memorandum of September 17.

This followed Russia also recently condemning  "sporadic clashes" and "provocations" by the jihadist group HTS (the main al-Qaeda presence) in Idlib. 

Likely due to Moscow seeing the writing on the wall that all-out fighting and a full assault by government forces on Idlib will soon resume, Russian naval forces continued a show of force in the Mediterranean this week.

Russian military and naval officials announced Friday that its warships held extensive anti-submarine warfare drills in the Mediterranean. Specifically the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s frigates Admiral Makarov and Admiral Essen conducted the exercise in tandem with deck-based helicopters near Syrian coastal waters. 

Notably, according to TASS, the warships central to the drill are "armed with eight launchers of Kalibr-NK cruise missiles that are capable of striking surface, coastal and underwater targets at a distance of up to 2,600 km."

Since September when what was gearing up to be a major Syrian-Russian assault on Idlib was called off through the Russian-Turkish ceasefire agreement, possibly in avoidance of the stated threat that American forces would intervene in defense of the al-Qaeda insurgent held province (also claiming to have intelligence of an impending government "chemical attack"), the war has largely taken a back-burner in the media and public consciousness. 

But as sporadic fighting between jihadists and Syrian government forces is reignited and fast turning into major offensive operations by government forces, the war could once again be thrust back into the media spotlight as ground zero for a great power confrontation between Moscow and Washington. 

 

HAL TURNER ANALYSIS -

 

This is dangerous.  The United States explicitly told Russia and Syria less than two months ago that any attack upon Idlib would result in the United States Armed Forces engaging to halt such an attack. On September 4 the US warning was publicly reported HERE, HERE, and HERE.   Three days later, on September 7, the US Warning was repeated, and was again publicly reported HERE, HERE and HERE. 

The reason cited by the United States was that Idlib has a large civilian population and if active warfare broke out there, it would create an almost instant Humanitarian Crisis.

Here we are, less than two months later, Russia has built up massive naval forces off the coast of Syria and equipped the Syrians with advanced S-300  air defense systems, and now the very thing that the US said would trigger an American military fight, is taking place.

It appears that both Syria and Russia are now calling our Bluff.  Will the U.S. make-good on its threat to engage, or will we weasel-out by saying something like "It's a very controlled and precise assault which will not create a humanitarian crisis?"  The jig appears to be up for the United States. 

  

We are so close to an unmitigated disaster AND OUTRIGHT WAR,  it cannot be over-stated.

If the US chooses to engage Syrian and/or Russian forces over Idlib, direct confrontation is expected to escalate very fast.