Germany
And France Just Broke The US Boycott Of Syria
28
Oxtober, 2018
There
weren't exactly any breakthroughs at the four-way summit involving
France, Germany, Russia, and host Turkey in Istanbul on Saturday, but
the event itself was a significant victory for one side in terms of
optics.
Says
Syria expert Joshua
Landis:
"The real importance of France and Germany going to Turkey
to meet Putin and Erdogan is that they
are effectively hiving off from the US by joining the Astana
process." Ultimately,
according Professor Landis:
They are breaking the boycott of Syria, while preserving the "need for elections" talking point.
Alas,
as the photo op of summit participants suggests, the
United States has indeed effectively been cut out of the Russia and
UN-brokered Astana process to
bring Syria's war to a close — which
has both set the terms for the current shaky Idlib ceasefire
agreement, and brought Turkey and Russia into an orbit of cooperation
to seek long-term peace and stability. Notably Germany's Merkel and
France's Macron now see the Russia-Turkey deal on Idlib as the
only workable track that could stave off another mass refugee and
jihadi influx into Europe,
already reeling from a years-long migrant crisis.
And
President Putin, sitting beside his European counterparts, still
affirmed that Russia is in the driver's seat since its 2015
intervention in the war at the request of Damascus. Putin vowed
during the summit: "Should
radicals… launch armed provocations from the Idlib
zone, Russia
reserves the right to give active assistance to the Syrian
government in liquidating this source of terrorist threat."
Image
via Global Look Press
* *
*
But
after years of calling for and at times directly assisting the West's
regime change efforts in Syria, what
is the real importance of France and Germany going to Turkey for
talks?
The
real importance of France and Germany going to Turkey to meet
Putin and Erdogan is that they are effectively hiving off from
the US by joining the Astana process. They
are breaking the boycott of Syria, while preserving the "need
for elections" talking point.
We
may safely conclude that Assad will not permit any "political
process" or constitutional committee to dislodge him or bring
members of the opposition to power in Damascus. He
has won the war.
Europe
is frightened for its security. It
does not want the refugee situation nor the Jihadi situation in
Europe to be made worse by an Idlib invasion. This is why Europe is
in Istanbul. As
Macron said, the Idlib deal may be sustained.
Russia
has reiterated that the Idlib
deal is temporary. The jihadists must be killed or arrested.
But Russia wants the EU to engage and commit
to reconstruction aid for Syria, which can help refugees return.
Europe
is angry at the U.S. for unilaterally
scuttling the Iran deal and possibly crushing the Iranian economy,
which could further destabilize the region and lead to an even
greater refugee flow toward Europe. The US policy is very bad for
Europe.
Turkey,
Syria, Iran and Russia want to drive the US out of North Syria and
end its alliance with the YPG.
There
are many competing agendas among the different sides in Istanbul, but
this is an important step forward, breaking
with America's stated goal of boycotting Syria so long as Assad
remains in power.
It
is a logical step forward after many Gulf countries, such as Bahrain
and Kuwait, took
measures to recognize the present reality of the Assad victory and
work toward the normalization of relations between their countries.
It is a logical step forward after many Gulf countries, such as Bahrain and Kuwait, took measures to recognize the present reality of the Assad victory and work toward the normalization of relations between their countries.
*
* *
Below
is a quick summary of agreed upon points issued in a communique by
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russia’s Vladimir
Putin, France’s Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor
Angela Merkel at the conclusion of this weekend's Istanbul
summit, via
RT News:
Only
political solution for Syria:
The leaders have “expressed
their support for an inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political
process that is facilitated by the United Nations.”
Need
to start work on constitution in Geneva:
A committee tasked with drafting a new constitution for Syria should
begin its work as soon as possible, preferably before the end of this
year.
No
to division of Syria:
Syria must continue to exist within its pre-war borders. Any
separatist movements or desires of foreign powers to occupy parts of
the country are therefore firmly rejected.
Keep
ceasefire & defeat terrorists:
The four countries have expressed their support for the Idlib
ceasefire deal, brokered earlier by Russia and Turkey. At the same
time, they emphasized the importance of fighting terrorism and
condemned the use of chemical weapons.
Boost
humanitarian aid:
The United Nations and other international organizations should
bolster aid deliveries to the war-torn country. “Swift,
safe and unhindered” flow
of humanitarian aid will provide much-needed relief to the sufferings
of the Syrian people.
Help
return of refugees:
The four leaders stressed the importance of “safe
and voluntary” return
of refugees to Syria. To facilitate the process, appropriate housing
and social care facilities must be constructed in the country.
Internationally
observed elections:
The ultimate goal of the political settlement process is holding
transparent, internationally observed elections, the statement reads.
All Syrians, including those who had to flee the country, must be
able to participate.
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