Extreme weather update - 10/02/2018

A Pair of Monster Cyclones Have Exploded to Life in the Pacific

Gizmodo,

1 August,, 2018

Take a look at that image up there. It’s the planetary version of ಠ_ಠ. Earth, it appears, is sick of our shit and it’s sent the message via two monstrous cyclones in the Pacific.

Hurricane Walaka and Super Typhoon Kong-rey are out there staring down satellites, and by extension, their human creators. The storms underwent a dramatic transformation Sunday night into Monday and are now the two strongest storms on the face of the Earth.

Both underwent rapid intensification, a meteorological process where cyclones’—the generic name for hurricanes and typhoons—wind speeds crank up at least 35 mph over a 24-hour stretch. Walaka, situated in the Central Pacific, was officially a Category 4 storm with winds of 150 mph as of 11 a.m. Hawaii Standard Time, though meteorologist Ryan Maue estimated that based on satellite observations, it was likely much stronger by mid-morning local time.

Meanwhile Kong-rey, churning in the Western Pacific about 200 miles southeast of Taipei, was packing sustained winds upwards of 155 mph, the equivalent of a strong Category 4 hurricane. It could menace Japan late this week, continuing a string of rotten weather luck that’s plagued the country all year.

Jeff Masters, a meteorologist at Weather Underground, told Earther that the official forecast was likely underestimating Kong-rey as well. In both cases, that’s due to something forecasters use when looking at satellite images known as the Dvorak constraint. Basically if a storm looks like it’s intensifying too fast, they assume satellite error is responsible.

Assuming the storms continue to strengthen and officially obtain Category 5 status, they would become the first pair of Category 5 storms ever recorded at the same time in the Pacific, according to Masters.

“We came within 6 hours of this happening in 2009, though,” he told Earther. Then, Super Typhoon Lupit became a Category 5 in the Western Pacific just six hours after Hurricane Rick weakened slightly. Alas!

The freaky sight is likely due to a burbling El Niño, which tends to warm the waters in the Pacific and calm down winds that can slow down hurricanes, particularly in the central and eastern parts of the ocean. Indeed, the eastern half of the Pacific has been going off. One measure of that is accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), which takes into account wind speeds of every cyclone for every hour of its life, providing a better metric for how serious a hurricane season was rather than just listing the number of storms. What was a slightly above average season for the Eastern Pacific took off like a rocket in August and the storm parade hasn’t stopped since then. ACE is more than double the average for this time of year. The western Pacific is outpacing its average for this time of year as well, with ACE running about 30 percent above normal according to data maintained by Colorado State University.

Climate change is also heating up the oceans around the world, providing more warm water to fuel cyclones. A study out last week looked at the influence of climate change and natural factors on the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season (short answer: climate change played a role) and the researchers plan to do a similar analysis for 2018 in the Pacific. Which seems like a good idea.

UK weather forecast: Hurricane-force storm to hit Britain - Cyclone Leslie in SHOCK u-turn

Powerful gales and torrential downpours could lash the UK if Leslie, currently whipping up near hurricane-force winds off the coast of Bermuda, hits at the end of next week.

Forecasters are watching the path and development of the storm amid fears it will strengthen into a full-blown hurricane through the coming days.

It shows signs of sweeping northeastwards towards the UK although experts are unsure whether it will make a direct hit or swerve southwards and hit the Continent.

Met Office chief forecaster Andy Page said: “Tropical Storm Leslie is currently in the central North Atlantic and is expected to remain there over the next few days.

“Leslie will likely strengthen to a hurricane as it moves over warmer waters on Tuesday and Wednesday, with large swells affecting Bermuda and east coast of US and Caribbean.

“It is likely to gradually weaken after this and to move eastwards across the north Atlantic.

“Some models suggest Leslie will track south of the UK while others suggest it may move close to the UK by the end of next week.

Arctic heatwave could result in summer-like warmth for Alaska

Euro News,

29 September, 2018

A high-pressured western ridge has positioned itself near Alaska, allowing record-breaking warmth from the North Pacific to spread over the Arctic.

A ridge, in weather terms, is defined as an elongated area of relatively high pressure extending from the center of a high-pressure region.

Climate scientist Zack Labe told Euronews this phenomenon could cause temperatures to rise over 10°C above average in some areas of Alaska, making the climate feel equivalent to late-summer. Labe believes this pattern will likely slow the progression of sea ice refreezing in the western Arctic.

"The remnants of Typhoon Trami (which is currently battering southern Japan) along with the unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific and the Bering Sea, are likely to contribute to the strength and persistence of this weather pattern," says Labe.

Zack Labe

✔
@ZLabe

Zack Labe✔@ZLabe

This is a remarkable (crazy) pattern unfolding across Alaska and into the #Arctic. Late summer-like warmth will spread across the region in association with an anomalous blocking upper level ridge.

4:38 AM - Sep 29, 2018

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This is a remarkable (crazy) pattern unfolding across Alaska and into the #Arctic. Late summer-like warmth will spread across the region in association with an anomalous blocking upper level ridge. 

These recent weather transformations are also impacting maritime transit. Earlier this month, the Danish cargo ship Venta Maersk, became the first ship to navigate the Northern Sea Route, which runs from Alaska along the Siberian coastline and was thought previously to be unpassable.

Due to warming ocean temperatures, sea ice has diminished to the point where it could be possible for global shipping to use this shortcut between the months of July to October.

Experts say the Northern Sea Route could cut transit time by 10-15 days by reducing the travel distance from east Asia to Europe from the 21,000 kilometres, via the Suez Canal, to 12,800 kilometres.

Last weekend, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) predicted significantly warmer temperatures for northwestern Alaska during October backed by 85% confidence.

According to Rick Thoman, climate science and services manager for the National Weather Service in Alaska, it's the first time in recorded history that the CPC has issued a probability forecast above 80%.

Friday, September 28, was another record-breaking temperature day in Anchorage, Alaska, where it hit a record 16°C in the city. Other Alaskan towns of Bethel and King Salmon also saw record high temperatures Friday according to the National Weather Service Anchorage.

Conversely, a conduit for colder temperature anomalies has developed off the eastern side of the high-pressure ridge, effectively pushing seasonal air further south. This has caused parts of Canada to experience unprecedented amounts of September snowfall. Canada's western province of Alberta is expecting upwards of 20cm of snow in the coming days.

Climate & Extreme Weather News #138 (21st to 30th September 2018)

00:12 Tunisia: Nabeul flash floods  
05:56 Mexico: Periban & Cabo San Lucas flash floods  
12:19 Greece & Turkey: Medicane Zorbas  
19:31 Japan: Typhoon Trami  
22:50 India: Himachal Pradesh floods 
 24:37 Venezuela: Vargas flash flood  
26:19 Canada: Gatineau tornado  
29:27 The USA: Texas, Tennessee & Tristate storms
30:48 Temperature Data


 

And in America...