This
is NOT gonna end well.
Some
of my best Iran sources say they are not worried. But the escalation
is now fast, inexorable - and irrational. And we're not even in
August - when the first sanctions kick in.
---
Pepe Escobar
Trump
to Iran's Rouhani: Never threaten the US again or suffer consequences
RT,
23
July, 2018
US
President Donald Trump has promised "consequences the likes of
which few have ever suffered before" to Iranian President Hassan
Rouhani in a late-night Sunday tweet in all caps.
In
the tweet, addressed to Rouhani, Trump cautions the Iranian leader
to "never,
ever threaten the United States again" or
suffer "consequences
the likes of which few throughout history have ever suffered
before." He
then accuses Rouhani of saying "demented
words of violence and death." The
US President is known for his liberal use of capitalization for
emphasis, but it is rare for him to resort to capitalizing entire
tweets.
Trump’s
fresh broadside against Iran apparently comes in response to the
earlier warning by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who on Sunday
urged Washington to refrain from provoking Iran unless it wants “the
mother of all wars” to
break out.
“The
Americans must understand well that peace with Iran is the mother of
all peace, and war with Iran is the mother of all wars,” Rouhani
stated, adding that “it
would only lead to regret."
The
already tense relations between Washington and Tehran have been
strained further by the US
State Department’s campaign to
subvert the Iranian government through propaganda.
US
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced on Sunday that the US will
be lending its support to dissidents in Iran with a new 24/7
Farsi-language channel and backing what he described as "the
long-ignored voice of the Iranian people."
The
US has intensified its efforts to squeeze Iran, the world’s
fourth-largest oil producer, out of the global oil market by
threatening its European allies with secondary sanctions unless they
cut all imports of Iranian oil by November 4.
Pompeo on Sunday
reiterated the threat, stating that the US is currently in talks with
Iran’s partners “to
get imports as close to zero as possible” by
the stated deadline
Iran
Warns US Against Blocking Oil Trade, Wants to Restore Relations With
Saudis
23
July, 2018
The
US has vowed to impose the "harshest sanctions ever" on
Iran, seeking to curb its oil trade in response to Tehran allegedly
continuing the development of its nuclear arms program.
Iranian
President Hassan Rouhani has warned the US against attempting
to stop Tehran's oil trade, the Islamic Republic News Agency
reported. He added that Iran has many "straits" apart
from the Strait of Hormuz, through which to ship
its oil, in case Iran's exports are blocked.
"Mr.
Trump! We are the honest men who have throughout history
guaranteed the safety of this region's waterways. Do not play
with the lion's tail, it will bring regret," Rouhani said.
The
Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint exit from the Persian
Gulf, which regional oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, use
to send their tankers with crude oil around the world.
President
Donald Trump announced on May 8 that the US was withdrawing
from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an
international agreement reached in 2015 by Iran, the United
States, Russia, France, China, the UK, Germany and the EU. It was
designed to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and
offered relief from economic sanctions in return.
Trump
has consistently been a harsh opponent of the Iran deal, calling
it "defective at its core." He demanded that it be
"fixed," threatening to withdraw the US from the
deal and to re-impose economic sanctions, which would also apply
to any company doing business with Tehran, potentially
hurting Tehran's oil trade.
Iranian
crude oil exports took a nosedive after sanctions were imposed
on the country back in 2012, limiting its oil production
to 2.5 million barrels per day (it had previously been 3.8
million). When the Iranian nuclear deal was reached in 2015 and
sanctions were lifted, its oil output returned to pre- 2012
levels. It is unclear whether the drop this time will be
as significant as previously, as EU countries are
struggling to avoid partaking in the US embargo.
Relations
With Regional Neighbors
When
speaking to representatives of Iran's foreign diplomatic
missions, Rouhani declared that Tehran wants to restore good
relations with its neighbors, specifically with Saudi
Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. However, he noted that
such an improvement requires a "change of actions" and
Saudi Arabia letting go of its "obstinacy," as well
as developing a desire to mend relations with Iran.
Relations
between Iran and Saudi Arabia deteriorated after the latter
executed Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr and 46 of his followers
in 2016 after being found guilty of extremist
activities. The execution sparked demonstrations in the majority
Shiite Iran, leading to the Saudi embassy being ransacked and
set on fire.
Riyadh
severed diplomatic ties with Tehran in response to the
incident, with the move being followed by Bahrain, Sudan
and Djibouti, while the United Arab Emirates downgraded its
diplomatic relations with Iran. Tehran has stated that it had
nothing to do with the attack on the embassy and said
that it was up to Riyadh to restore relations.
Another
stumbling block in relations between Tehran and Riyadh,
as well as other regional powers, is the ongoing war
in Yemen, where the Saudi-led coalition is supporting the
country's president, Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, who is embroiled in a
war against Yemeni Shiite Houthi militants. Saudi Arabia claims
that Iran has covertly been supplying the Houthis with weapons,
including ballistic missiles, which the rebels have frequently
launched in the direction of the Saudi capital Riyadh and
its surrounding oil facilities.
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