Russian wheat crop expected to drop 21 per cent

RUSSIAN WHEAT CROP TO FALL TO 67.4 MLN T DUE ADVERSE WEATHER -AGRITEL

Reuters,

21 June, 2018

PARIS, June 21 (Reuters) - Wheat production in Russia is

expected to drop to 67.4 million tonnes this year, down 21.5

percent from a record 2017 crop, after adverse weather affected

both winter and spring wheat, French consultancy Agritel said on

Thursday.

Other forecasters have been scaling back their expectations

for the wheat harvest in Russia, the world's biggest exporter of

the cereal, due to weather concerns, contributing to a run-up in

international prices last month.

Agritel's estimate was below the 68.50 million tonnes

projected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in a

world crop report on June 12, a projection that fuelled further

gains in wheat futures, before prices retreated in the past

week.

Agritel's forecast, which followed a crop tour it conducted

in southern Russia last week, would nonetheless be 1.3 percent

above the average volume of the past five years, it said in a

Russian harvest outlook.

The consultancy's production outlook was based on an

estimated average yield of 2.61 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), down

from 3.10 t/ha last year, and an area of 25.83 million hectares.

For winter wheat, production was forecast to decline to 50

million tonnes, down about 19 percent from last year.

"The potential is estimated well below last year, mainly

because of the dryness during spring and hot temperatures from

the beginning of June in southwestern regions," Agritel said of

winter wheat.

For later-developing spring wheat, it projected production

would drop about 28 percent to 17.3 million tonnes, stressing

that planting delays had led it to estimate a decrease in the

crop area to 11.3 million hectares from 12.7 million last year.

Cold, wet conditions in more northerly regions have hampered

sowing and early growth of spring wheat, contributing to

downward revisions by some forecasters.

Agritel said it had provisionally applied a 10-year average

of 1.53 t/ha as the 2018 spring wheat yield, down from 1.89 t/ha

last year, but the outlook was subject to revision as crops

develop in the coming weeks.

Russia's Wheat Crop Under Threat From Miserable Start to Spring

Russia’s poor start to spring means farmers may struggle to collect a wheat crop that’s near to last year’s record.

Cold weather in central areas and the Volga valley delayed the resumption of winter wheat growth by about two to three weeks compared with last year, according to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, or IKAR. Lingering snow has also given farmers in the world’s top exporter less time to sow spring crops, potentially leading to smaller-than-expected plantings.