Syria Sitrep - Afrin, Idlib and East-Ghouta
3
March, 2018
After
a slow start the Turkish and Jihadi attack on the Afrin canton in
north-west Syria is making some progress. Despite intimate knowledge
of the terrain and years of preparation the local Kurdish forces of
the YPK have little chance to withstand.
Turkish
air and artillery support for the attacking force opponents is
overwhelming the Kurds. The ground troops Turkey is using are mostly
Islamist Free Syrian Army fighters directed by Turkish officers. A
few Turkish special forces are acting as forward observers to call in
artillery and airstrikes. Only yesterday the Turkish air force flew
more than 30 bombing missions on a rather small front. Today some 36
fighters were
killed by Turkish air strikes.
Last
week the local Kurdish forces were reinforced by other Kurdish forces
and Syrian government paramilitaries. Some of the Kurdish groups had
split off from the U.S. supported SDF in east Syria, crossed through
Syrian government held land and reached Afrin. Kurdish groups in
Aleppo city gave control of two of the three districts they held to
the Syrian government to join their brethren in Afrin. A contingent
of 500 Syrian paramilitary fighters from two Shiite towns near Afrin
also joined the fight. The Turkish army tried to interdict the
convoys reinforcing Afrin but most of the fighters reached the front
lines. The Syrian Red Cross sent a convoy with humanitarian goods for
the about one million inhabitants of the canton.
The
Kurdish YPG forces in control of Afrin have a choice. The Russian and
the Syrian government have offered their full support if the Kurds
submit to Syrian government control just like any citizen of Syria is
supposed to do. If they agree, the Turkish planes will immediately
vanish from the skies over Afrin. But the Kurds insist on keeping
their own military and police forces as well as their unelected local
administration. If they keep doing so the Turkish forces will role
them up and all will be lost. It is a simple and obvious choice to
make.
Idleb
governorate and Idleb city are held by various groups aligned with
Turkey. The biggest of these groups are al-Qaeda (aka Nusra Front aka
HTS), Ahrar al Sham and Zinki. All of these are Islamist extremists
but only al-Qaeda/Nusra is designated as an international terrorist
group. A Russian-Turkish agreement marks Idleb as a deescalation zone
which will no longer be attacked by the Syrian government forces if
Turkey can get the groups there under control and if it eliminates
the al-Qaeda/HTS terrorists. Regular Turkish troops set up a few
observer posts in the area.
But
Turkey had supported al-Qaeda/HTS all along and the group, if
attacked by regular Turkish forces, is likely to hit back within
Turkey itself. After much prodding by Russia Turkey finally pressed
the other groups it controls to evict al-Qaeda/HTS from the various
towns it held.
The
operation started a week ago. Ahrar al Sham and Zinki united with
some smaller groups under the common label JTS. They attacked HTS
positions and were able to immediately capture a number of them. HTS
simply retreated. For three days it looked as if the Turkish ordered
operation would be successful. Some 30 towns and villages fell to
JTS. Then came the counterattack. Ahrar al-Sham's main weapon depot,
with several tanks and artillery guns, fell to HTS. JTS was attacked
from the rear and town after town fell back to HTS. Just a week after
the whole operation against HTS started it is in better
position than ever before.
HTS
has kept control of the city of Idleb. It is now in complete control
of the border with Turkey. All Turkish observer posts in Idleb
governorate are now surrounded by HTS forces. The Turkish soldiers
have become hostages. Will Erdogan have to call on the Syrian
government to bail them out?
---
The
large Syrian government operation against the east-Ghouta enclave
east of the capital Damascus is progressing well. The area is
held by various
Salafist and Wahabbi groups including an al-Qaeda contingent of
several hundred fighters. The defense line of Jaish al-Islam on the
eastern border of the 10 square kilometer area have been breached.
Wide ditches dug to prevent any Syrian army attack were crossed with
the help of military bridges. The area is rural and flat and can be
easily captured by a mechanized force. One third of east-Ghouta is
already back in government hands. The western side of the enclave is
upbuild city terrain and will be much more difficult to take.
---
In
east-Syria north of the Euphrates and along the Syrian-Iraqi border
there is still a significant ISIS enclave with several thousand ISIS
fighters which the U.S. supported SDF seems uninterested in. The
Syrian and Russian governments believe that the U.S. is protecting
these terrorists and will eventually use them against the Syrian
government. The Russian defense ministry claims that the U.S. has
build some 20 garrisons in north-east Syria for several thousands of
its troops. Another U.S. contingent holds the Syrian-Iraqi border
station al-Tanf in south-east Syria. It has recently been reinforced
with additional U.S. soldiers. Nearby is a large refugee camp
controlled by ISIS aligned fighters. This again seems to be an area
where the U.S. is coddling ISIS to later reuse it as a "rebel"
force against the Syrian government.
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