Status Red Severe Weather Warning: The Irish Independent on Hurricane Ophelia

From the Irish Independent

Worst cyclone in 50 years rages our way

130km/h winds n Schools told to close n ESB alert as Ophelia gathers pace

The Independent (Ireland),

15 October, 2017

Emergency measures will be taken in the next 48 hours as the country braces itself for a ferocious storm comparable with Hurricane Debbie, the most powerful cyclone ever to hit Ireland.

As Hurricane Ophelia approaches, a status red severe weather warning has been issued for coastal areas with an orange alert for the rest of the country.

Experts have warned that the significant wind event will bring gusts in excess of 130km/h in some parts of the country.

Met Eireann has compared Ophelia to Debbie, which hit Ireland in 1961, killing 15 people when it brought record-breaking winds and caused severe disruption.

"It has the potential to be as bad as Debbie," said Pat Clarke of Met Eireann. "The track is pretty much consistent now. These things can take on a life of their own but it certainly has the potential to be similar [to Debbie]."

At this stage, there is strong evidence from weather forecast models that the remnants of Ophelia will track close to or over parts of Ireland, but at present, there are still a wide range of possible outcomes.

The Department of Education has advised school closures in the worst hit counties along the western seaboard, while the ESB is on standby to deal with expected outages.

Met Eireann forecasters will be tracking Ophelia's evolution in the next 24 hours, with emergency response teams still hopeful the country will escape the worst of the storm.

The US National Hurricane Center said yesterday Ophelia had become a "rare category 3 hurricane south of the Azores", making it the "sixth major hurricane of the 2017 season".

"No significant change in strength is expected today, but gradual weakening should begin tonight or Sunday. However, Ophelia is still expected to remain a powerful cyclone with hurricane force winds for the next couple of days as it approaches Ireland," it said.

The issue of red level severe weather warnings is a comparatively rare event and implies that people take action to protect themselves and/or their properties.

This could be by moving their families out of the danger zone temporarily, staying indoors, or by other specific actions aimed at mitigating the effects of the weather conditions.

The Office of Emergency Planning in the Department of Defence has taken a lead role in co-ordinating a response across State responders.

Ophelia is expected to pass Ireland tomorrow, with forecasters warning of severe disruption, coastal flooding and structural damage to buildings. People have also been warned of the risks posed by falling trees with transport infrastructure likely to be hit along the western seaboard.

Bus Eireann has already moved to cancel school bus services for students in counties Cork, Kerry, Clare, Mayo and Galway, where the storm is likely to cause most disruption. The company said it made the move to ensure the children would not be endangered in anyway. Some schools along the west coast may be forced to close because of the status red wind warning.

Environment Minister Denis Naughten yesterday warned that the country should prepare for more "very severe" storms which will "ravage through people's homes".

"You are going to see an increased frequency of extreme weather conditions like the 100-year floods happening every five or six years," Mr Naughten told the Sunday Independent.

"The climate change scientist won't relate any one particular event to climate change but the reality is we have seen in Ireland over the last decade very unusual weather incidents that would have been spread out over a much larger period up until now," he said.

The Department of Education advises that schools "should consider not opening where a Status Red weather warning related to wind is forecast to coincide with the period/s during which students and staff would be expected to be travelling to and from school.

"Whether the school should open later in the day where an improvement to the weather is forecast is a decision which should be taken in consultation with An Garda Siochana, the local authorities, school transport services and other appropriate agencies based in the school's area."

The Department said it had been informed by Bus Eireann school buses in Cork, Kerry, Clare, Mayo and Galway will not operate tomorrow due to the Status Red weather warning.

"Ensuring the safety of children, teachers and all those who work in schools is of the utmost importance to the Department," the statement said.

Met Eireann meteorologist Joanna Donnelly warned any alteration of Ophelia's trajectory means the storm could have a greater impact on other counties.

"If this storm veers of course by up to 100km it could change the impact dramatically," she said.

Meteorologist Pat Clarke said the hurricane, which will be downgraded to an extra tropical storm when it hits Ireland, was moving slowly last night but it will gather speed as it gets closer to Irish waters.

"The storm itself will stay off-shore but we will get the effects of it. It is going to pick up speed when it leaves the warm waters behind it and it gets caught up in the normal flow patterns that exist at this time of year. Once that happens, it will start moving really fast on Sunday night, especially during the course of Monday. Monday is going to be the critical time."

He compared Ophelia to Debbie, which hit Ireland in 1961, bringing record breaking winds and caused severe disruption, killing 15 people. While Met Eireann was not warning of casualties last night, Mr Clarke did say the weather warnings must be taken seriously.

"People need to be careful. We do not issue warnings lightly. And they were brought in to highlight weather events that offer a threat to life, limb and property," said Mr Clarke.

"The brunt of it will be borne by western and south western counties but even the orange level winds are strong enough to produce some structural damage and cause disruption.

"If the winds are not as high in some other areas, because trees are in full leaf there is an issue. It is one of the reasons we gave an orange warning for everywhere but we are trying to get the impact and the sensory impact out there.

"If trees are very exposed and they are full of leaf, there could be issues. There has been a lot of rain so far this autumn and the root systems may not be as good as they would be so that can cause trees to fall.

"It is not just buildings that pose a risk. There is a threat of some coastal flooding and we could see heavy rain but we are more concerned about the wind. Overall we will see a high impact event for Ireland. There is going to be some heavy and thundery bursts of rain but it is certainly a wind event."

Sunday Independent