Very
dangerous escalation in Syria
the
Saker
24
September, 2017
By
now many of you must have
heard the news:
a Russian Lieutenant-General, Valery Asapov, and two Colonels have
been killed in what appears to be a very precisely targeted mortar
attack. Just as in the case of the Russian
military police unit recently attacked near Deir ez-Zor,
the Russians are accusing the Americans of being behind this attack.
To make things even worse, the Russians are now also officially
accusing the
Americans of actively collaborating with ISIS:
US Special Operations Forces units enable US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces units to smoothly advance through the ISIS formations. Facing no resistance of the ISIS militants, the SDF units are advancing along the left shore of the Euphrates towards Deir-ez-Zor. The aerial photos made on September 8-12 over the ISIS locations recorded a large number of American Hummer vehicles, which are in service with the America’s SOF. The shots clearly show the US SOF units located at strongholds that had been equipped by the ISIS terrorists. Though there is no evidence of assault, struggle or any US-led coalition airstrikes to drive out the militants. Despite that the US strongholds being located in the ISIS areas, no screening patrol has been organized at them. This suggests that the US troops feel safe in terrorist controlled regions.
What
this all seems to point to is that the Pentagon has now apparently
decided to attack Russian forces directly, albeit unofficially.
From the Pentagon’s point of view, this (almost) makes sense.
First,
by now it is pretty darn clear that the “good terrorists” and the
“bad terrorists” have lost the civil war in Syria. Simply
put, the USA has been defeated, Syria, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah
have won and the Israelis are now freaking out.
Second,
the American plan to use the Kurds as foot-soldiers/canon-fodder has
failed. The Kurds are clearly too smart to be pulled in such a
losing proposition.
Third,
the American plan-B option, the partition of Syria, is now itself
directly threatened by the Syrian military successes.
Last
and not least, the Americans by now are deeply humiliated and enraged
at the Russian success in Syria.
Lieutenant-General
Valery Asapov
Hence
they have now apparently taken the decision to directly target
Russian military personnel and they are using their considerable
reconnaissance capabilities combined with US Special Forces on the
ground, working side by side with “good” and “bad”
terrorists, to target and attack Russian military personnel.
This is not the first time, by the way. There is pretty good evidence that a Russian hospital near Aleppo was targeted using means not available to the local Daesh franchise. This time, however, the Americans are not even trying to hide. The message seems to be this all-time American favorite “watcha gonna do about it?“.
There is a lot the Russians could do about it, in fact. I wrote about this in my article “Using plausible deniability against a systematically lying adversary“. If the folks at CENTCOM really believe that their generals are all safe and out of reach they are deeply mistaken. Unlike the Russians and, even more so, the Iranians, US Generals are mostly risk averse and hard to get to in Syria. But who said that Russia would have to retaliate in Syria? Or, for that matter, that Russia would have to use Russian forces to retaliate. Yes, Russia does have special units trained in the assassination of high-value targets in hostile countries, but that does not at all mean that they would decide to use them. Accidents can happen anywhere and the roads are notoriously dangerous in the Middle-East. Why do I mention that? To illustrate that Russia does have options short of overtly going to war.
Of course, the Russians could simply fire a volley of Kalibr cruise missile at any of the ISIS positions shown in the photos above and then go “oops, you had personnel embedded with these al-Qaeda types? Really? We had no idea, no idea at all“. Syria also have a pretty solid arsenal of tactical ballistic missiles. The Syrians could mistakenly hit any such ISIS+US positions and express consternation at the presence of US military personnel in the midst of terrorists.
There is also Hezbollah who, in the past, has even seized Israelis soldiers in raids across the border and who could decide to capture themselves some US SOF types. And let’s not forget the Iranians who have not had such an golden opportunity to finally get their hands on US military personnel since many years.
The three key weakness of the US force posture in Syria are: first, their own force in Syria is too small to make a difference, but big enough to represent a lucrative target and, second, all the boots on the ground which matter are against them (Syrians, Iran, Turkey, Hezbollah and the Russians). Finally, the only two real US allies in the region are too afraid to put boots on the ground: Israel and the Saudis.
The bottom line is that if the Americans think that the Russians and their allies don’t have options they are deeply mistaken. They also should seriously consider the consequence of having US SOF operating in forward positions. The Syrians are closing the distance fast and this might not be the best time to hunt Russian military personnel.
So far the Russians have only limited themselves to protests and expressions of disgust. This has clearly not been an effective strategy. The Russians apparently don’t realize that very few people care and that the more the complain, the less credible their warnings sound. This is not a sustainable approach and the Russians will so “have to do something about it”, to use the American expression.
Things might become very dangerous, very fast and very soon.
The Saker
Syrian War Report – September 25, 2017: US-Russian Tensions Grow In Deir Ezzor Province
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An
ISIS shelling has killed Russia’s Lieutenant general Valery Asapov
near Deir Ezzor city, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Sunday.
The general died after sustaining a “fatal injury” in the
shelling. The incident took place when Asapov was at a command
outpost manned by Syrian troops, assisting commanders in the
liberation of Deir Ezzor.
According
to the Russian media, Asapov was a commander of Russian task forces
in Deir Ezzor and Raqqah provinces.
At
the same day, CNN announced citing a US official that US forces in
Syria have increased surveillance of Russian troop locations. The
report boosted the rumors that ISIS could receive a location of the
Russian-Syrian command post from the US-led coalition.
The
Russian Defense Ministry also released photos showing US Special
Operations Forces deployed in stronghold in the ISIS-held area near
Dier Ezzor with no screening patrols.
“The
shots clearly show the US SOF units located at strongholds that had
been equipped by the ISIS terrorists. Though there is no evidence of
assault, struggle or any US-led coalition airstrikes to drive out the
militants.
Despite
that the US strongholds being located in the ISIS areas, no screening
patrol has been organized at them. This suggests that the US troops
feel safe in terrorist controlled regions,” the statement said.
Russia
will likely react to the recent developments in Deir Ezzor with
increased bombing campaign with possible usage of Kalibr cruise
missiles against ISIS targets.
Photos
and videos appearing online show increased deployment of government
troops as well as equipment, including battle tanks, PMM-2M
self-propelled ferries and BMK-MO boats, to Deir Ezzor ahead of
further operations.
Last
weekend, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its allies made a large
progress northwest of Deir Ezzor, retaking the key town of Maadan and
the nearby areas from ISIS. At the same, time, government troops were
not able to develop momentum on the east bank of the Euphrates
because of a fierce ISIS resistance there.
In
turn, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) consolidated their
gains over Ibsah and Taibah fields and pushed towards Jafra fields.
The SDF also launched a storm of the al-Suwar town.
Is The Stage Set for Global Conflict?
ISIS
kills Russia General near Deir Er-Zor, Russian foreign Minister call
for the US to leave Syria. Israeli MK Member Bennett saying Israel
will have to go at Iran alone, the Kurd's call for independent
Kurdistan and US North Korea on the brink of War
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