Tropical storm Irma coming off SE Atlantic coast

Tropical Storm Irma Could Form off Southeast Coast; Tropical Storm Watches Issued for Carolina Coast

• An area of low pressure is becoming better organized off the Southeast coast.
• Development of this system into a tropical depression or storm is possible early this week.
• Regardless of development, heavy rain, gusty winds and minor coastal flooding are expected from the Southeast coast to the mid-Atlantic.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/potential-tropical-depression-ten-tropical-storm-irma-southeast-coast-florida

An area of low pressure off the Southeast coast has become better organized, and it could become the next Atlantic tropical cyclone early this week.

Tropical storm watches have been issued for parts of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina.

Current Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings

Tropical-storm-force winds (39 mph or greater) are possible within the watch area Monday night through Tuesday.

This weather system, for now, has been dubbed Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten – a naming convention used to identify features that have a chance to develop into a tropical depression or storm, but could bring tropical-storm-like impacts to the coast soon – by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The NHC has given Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten a high chance of formation into a tropical depression or storm within the next day or so before it merges with a front. The next named storm in the Atlantic would be "Irma."

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Info

The highest cloud tops, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in the brightest red colors. Clustering, deep convection around the center is a sign of a healthy tropical cyclone.

The latest forecast guidance suggests the area of low pressure will track northeastward away from Florida across the North Carolina coast. A southward dip in the jet stream across the eastern United States would be responsible for sending this system northeastward.

This area of low pressure is expected to strengthen as it moves northeastward. 

Early Week Forecast

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten is expected to drift toward the South and North Carolina coasts through Tuesday. 

Forecast Through Tuesday

Contour on the map is for rainfall expected through Tuesday evening.

Depending on how closely the low tracks to the Southeast coast early this week, areas as far north as southeastern Virginia could see bands of heavy rain.

Additionally, the low-pressure system in tandem with strong high pressure over the Northeast will create an onshore wind flow. That would result in gusty northeast winds, high surf, rip currents and possible coastal flooding from Georgia to the mid-Atlantic.

Here is a breakdown of where impacts may be experienced early this week:

• Monday: Rain and thunderstorms will spread into the Carolinas and perhaps eastern Virginia.
• Tuesday: Rain and gusty winds are expected along the mid-Atlantic coast.

Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected along the Southeast coast from South Carolina to southeast Virginia, with isolated amounts up to 6 inches, especially at the immediate coast. Rough surf, rip currents and coastal flooding are anticipated Monday and Tuesday along the coast from Georgia to the mid-Atlantic.

Projected Path and Intensity

Potential Tropical Cyclone 10's Invest History 

This system, previously known as Invest 92L, enhanced rainfall in the Florida Peninsula. Localized flooding from the tropical moisture surge associated with this system occurred as 92L criss-crossed the peninsula.

Sarasota, Florida, received 8.12 inches of rainfall on Saturday and 16.54 inches since Wednesday. Other impressive rainfall totals since Wednesday include 13.78 inches in Fort Myers and 7.51 inches in Naples.(MORE: Where Every U.S. Landfalling Hurricane Began Its Journey)