Montana's failing grain harvest

The authorities in Montana are blaming “environmental extremists” for their woes , like wildfires.

Montana grain harvest ranges from average to catastrophic

Great Falls Tribune,

27 August, 2017

If the overview of Montana's grain harvest in 2017 can be summarized with a single word it would be "disappointing,"

Grain prices have risen marginally, but still remain only slightly above a break even barrier. More significantly, about 40 percent of Montana is experiencing one of the worst droughts in the last half century.

But in a state as large as Montana, no single summary of crop conditions will apply equally to all locations.

'Flash drought' grips Montana

"Its kind of hard at this point to quantify the harvest to any degree of accuracy," said Lola Raska, executive vice president of the Montana Grain Growers Association. "Depending on where you are in the state, I've heard production all across the board - from good year to average year to poor year - then you get into the eastern part of the state to some crops that were abandoned and won't even be cut."

From the Rocky Mountain Front east to a line running roughly between Chester and Townsend, rainfall totals over the past four months have largely been within 75 percent of average - dry but not devastating.

In these areas, where barley and hard red winter wheat dominate, crop yields are expected to be near normal. Department of Agriculture statistics show that 88 percent of the winter wheat crop in Montana has already been harvested, with per acre yields down about 13 percent from last year.

The further east you travel the tougher things become. East of a line running between Havre, Lewistown and Billings the hard drought sets in.

Large sections of Garfield County are 80 percent behind normal for precipitation since April 1. Glasgow, Wolf Point, Plentywood, Glendive, Miles City - the entire northeast fringe of the state is experiencing a desperate drought.

"By July 9, widespread drought conditions were noted for both North and South Dakota as well as Montana," a recent USDA report states; also noting that 63 percent of Montana's spring wheat crop is currently listed in either poor or very poor condition.

The effect of the drought on Montana's total wheat harvest is multiplied even further because producers going into the season planted fewer acres.

"Grain prices were very low going into this crop season so producers were looking for alternatives that provided a better income," said Lola Raska.

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With grain elevator prices consistently under $4.4 a bushel; a price that would barely meet the cost of production, producers turned to alternative crops like lentils and edible peas to try and salvage a profit.

"This month NASS (the National Agriculture Statistics Service) lowered all wheat harvested area by 412,000 acres to 38.1 million, " the most current USDA report states. "Wheat harvested area this low has not been observed since the 1880s."

The downward force on wheat prices and acres planted has been a years long glut of international grain stocks. While the cut in U.S. production is anticipated to exert an upward pressure on global wheat prices, record harvests in Russia and Turkey will likely offset any potential gains.

"Foreign wheat supplies are projected higher, and a shift in the export shares of major exporters is likely," an Economic Research Service report states. "Russia is projected to become the top world wheat exporter for the first time in history."

There is some room for optimism. Spring wheat prices have rebounded by around 50-cents a bushel over the past few months. The price of 13 percent protein Dark Northern Spring Wheat hit $6.68 a bushel in Great Falls this week - the best price in more than two years.

But it has come at its own price; that being a drought that has decimated production across much of the northern plains.

Only a third of the spring wheat crop has been harvested thus far in 2017, but of that 63 percent was rated poor or very poor. One year ago only five percent of the spring wheat crop rated that marginal standard.

Most of this can be directly attributed to some of the worst drought conditions to hit eastern Montana and the Dakotas in recent memory.

"We're looking at historical dry weather," Raska said. "It's not a case of it being drying this year than it has been in the last few years. We're looking at the driest conditions in a hundred years."

The further north and east you go the more dire the situation becomes. Make it out to Glasgow or Jordan and you're consistently looking at precipitation totals less than 40 percent of the 30-year average. Spring wheat, pasture, lentils and hay ground have already withered and died.

"In general, within the grain producing regions of the Golden Triangle we're hearing of about average yields," Raska said "You get into the eastern part of the state and you come to some crops that were abandoned and won't even be cut. Not only is it drier than in recent memory, it's historically dry up there."

Raska noted that in a state as large as Montana its nearly impossible to give a one sentence summary of all crop conditions.

"There's so many variables that go into determining that quality - whether you seeded early, whether you seeded late, whether you had rain that leached out the nitrogen, whether you didn't get enough rain at all - its just highly variable."

What can be said is that many ag producers are already looking ahead to 2018 in hope of a more profitable year.

"Even in the areas where production was good the quality was disappointing," Raska said. "That effects price, that effects their overall income. I think disappointing applies to a majority of Montana grain growers this year."

Drought disaster declared in Montana along with neighbors North and South Dakota as hot and dry conditions has caused significant injury to crops

Photo The Nation

the Big Wobble,

27 August, 2017

Governor Steve Bullock issued an executive order on Friday declaring a drought disaster in 31 counties and six Indian Reservations.

According to a press release, a widespread drought in eastern and central Montana has caused significant injury to crops including livestock forage.

The effects are imposing economic hardships on many farmers and ranchers. 

The effects are imposing economic hardships on many farmers and ranchers"High temperatures, extreme drought, and worsening fire conditions are affecting Montanans in many corners of our state," Governor Bullock said.

"We're doing everything we can to minimize the economic impact of these hot and dry con

The order includes the following counties and reservations: Blaine, Big Horn, Carter, Choteau, Custer, Daniels, Dawson, Fallon, Fergus, Garfield, Golden Valley, Hill, Judith Basin, Lake, Lincoln, McCone, Musselshell, Petroleum, Phillips, Powder River, Prairie, Richland, Roosevelt, Rosebud, Sanders, Sheridan, Treasure, Valley, Yellowstone, Wheatland, Wibaux Counties, and the Fort Peck Indian Reservation, Fort Belknap Indian Reservation, Rocky Boy's Indian Reservation, Crow Indian Reservation, Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation, and the Flathead Indian Reservation.

This drought disaster declaration continues the temporary suspension of "hours of service" regulations and waives temporary registration, temporary fuel permits, and over-dimensional permit requirements for commercial vehicles providing support for the drought.

The declaration also compels maximum employee assistance and cooperation with the United States Departments' of Agriculture and Commerce to secure timely economic assistance.

As of July 10, 2017, small nonfarm businesses in 16 Montana counties are eligible to apply for low-interest federal disaster loans from the U.S. Small Business Administration after Governor Bullock sent a letter to Secretary Sonny Perdue requesting a Secretarial Drought Disaster Designation. 

Affected counties and reservations are also eligible for the Livestock Forage Program.

Back in July neighbors North and South Dakota proclaimed a statewide fire and drought emergency as extreme drought and late frost has destroyed millions of dollars in crops.

Drought conditions and high winds have created a fire emergency in North Dakota.

The U.S. Drought Monitor report released last week showed 8 percent of the state in extreme drought, 32 percent in severe drought, 27 percent in moderate drought and 33 percent abnormally dry. The conditions have increased the fire risk for North Dakota, with 30 counties issuing emergency declarations, burn bans or other fire restrictions so far.