A
cross-section of what is happening in the Arctic.
My guess (as an untrained but interested eye) is that
all that stands between us and a (near) Blue Ocean Event is the
weather.
And that doesn’t look too flash at the moment.
And that doesn’t look too flash at the moment.
The
Typhoon autogun in the Pacific and the effects on the Beaufort gyre
dynamics have been giving me a very sick feeling in my gut the last
24hrs. It looks very ugly indeed what is unfolding.
First
Animation:
Total
Precipital Water and surface winds,
Winds
at 1000hpa,
Temps
and winds at 850hpa,
3hr
precipitations of 6mm over the the outer CAA and 850hpa winds,
and
total cloud water simular to the record flood last week in Japan nth
of Barrow with 700hpa winds.
This
Junks looking to continue for some time with south and west winds
from Norway to Chukchi to Greenland coastal. If not dumping lots of
water vapour into the basin, its making hot foehn winds off Europe,
Siberia, Alaska, the CAA, and Greenland. And pushing warm Pacific and
Atlantic waters in at accelerated rates.
As
for the effects on the Beaufort Gyre and Ice.
The
Eastward surface drift from all these Westerly's, is and will
continue to disperse the loose fringes and fresh meltwater to the
right, de-consolidating the pack and exposing the meltwater and river
Fluxs to rising salinity by mixing with the inbound waters they are
riding over above the shallow continental shelves. Bottom structure
and Methane venting will enhance this of course.
First
frame shows:
Along
with Pacific end SST anomalies, marked where the spreading meltwater
is butting up against the still eastward moving pacific waters east
in the ESS and a strong and large mixing vortex in process. These are
popping up all along the meltwater front and the Strong inflow
through Bering has in the last few days swung from heading in that
direction to straight ahead towards the pole sliding down the slope
under the Chukchi front, to bending to the east and heading for the
CAA along the shelf instead.
Second
Frame:
Third
Frame:
1.72m
swells eastbound, against current, into the Beaufort pack and CAA.
Slightly bigger ones actually heading straight north into the pack
from Bering in the Chuckchi.
Fourth
Frame:
Track
log plots of ITP buoys 97 in the Beaufort and 95 at 85nth heading for
Fram.
Fifth
Frame:
Observe
the deep core of fresher water penetrating the halocline surface to
depth in the lefthand ITP 97 plot. Deep mixing events on its fringes.
This the Gyres "flywheel", a large reserve to maintain the
Halocline, in the middle of the Canadian basin. Not much disturbance
in the Temperature plots above it. A little warming and thinning of
the Gulfstream Layer it penetrates from energy extracted as its feeds
have punched through. About 0.5 degrees warmer and around 1% saltier
than the Layer above the Atlantic from about 300m to 50m from the
surface. Though recently the surface temp has spiked to just below
Zero as we've noticed on the Buoys thread. ITP 97 seems to be in the
fringes of the pack where the deep Gyre ramps up the Alaskan slope
Right about in the middle of this
Frame
5, today's worldview shot.
-ITP
97 right about in the middle.
Frame
6 shows the westbound current coming up here at 0C.
So
anyway, the Gulfstream water that has been surfacing at 15-16C
around, Svalbard and FJL, and just loves to hug the right by the
Right Hand Rule of mr Coriolis North.
Should
it not meet Pacific, and surface stuff head on at Severnaya Zemlya
thats Westbound as traditional in a high pressure dominated Eastern
Basin. Keen to take it by the hand and ride it out off the shelf into
the deeper basin...
Perhaps
Gulf Snake will be fresh and warm enough to climb on top, or even
socialise a little with Pacific eel. Assisted by big late snow-melts
and an open Russian coast, and a slide beneath a few thousand km of
fresh melt pool south of Norway.
With
a largely Low pressure dominated east with a reversing Gyre, and
Cooler inbound stuff from a full or partial anticlockwise deep salty
racetrack that it can team up with and python coil the heart of the
Ocean.
Then
instead of a big reserve of low density fresh pycnocline pushed down
in the middle of the eastern Basin.....
That
which is there will all be flinging itself out through the CAA and
down both coasts of Greenland , as the Turbo Pump from both Oceans
swirls all around squeezing it out from below.
I'm
deeply worried that this is starting already
Today Worldview has very clear but imho horrible images of the area north from Svalbard and north to north east from Greenland
23.07.2017. Tongue of Atlantic Warm Water Heading Beneath Sea Ice - close.jpg
23.07.2017. Tongue of Atlantic Warm Water Heading North Beneath Sea Ice
23.07.2017. Tongue of Atlantic Warm Water Heading Beneath Sea Ice
Today Worldview has very clear but imho horrible images of the area north from Svalbard and north to north east from Greenland
Images
of a warm Atlantic water current which is pushing beneath sea ice in
the Fram Strait. A large landfast piece of sea ice will shortly
detach. Further fractures appeared in the land fast ice. A removal of
yet another slow-down feature slowing southward sea ice transport
from the Arctic.
23.07.2017. Tongue of Atlantic Warm Water Heading Beneath Sea Ice - close.jpg 23.07.2017. Tongue of Atlantic Warm Water Heading North Beneath Sea Ice 23.07.2017. Tongue of Atlantic Warm Water Heading Beneath Sea Ice
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