The Saker knocks the nail n the head with clear analysis
The Trump administration goes Neocon-crazy
5
April, 2017
Oh
boy, that did not take long. As I wrote in February,
the Neocons
and the US deep state have completely neutered Trump.
Just look at these two headlines from RT (and read the articles):
Frankly,
I feel like saying “QED – I rest my case” and stop writing
here. But I won’t – this is too serious.
First,
let’s set the context. The
Syrians gave up their chemical weapons three years ago (courtesy
of Russia). The
Syrians have also pretty much defeated the Anglo-Zionist-Wahabi
aggression against their country (courtesy
of Russia, again). There
is a new (kind of) US Administration in power (some say that this was
also courtesy of Russia) which appeared to have given up on
overthrowing Assad.
And right at this moment in time, in what is supposed to be a *pure
coincidence*.
- The Syrian forces used chemical weapons
- In a location filled with children
- and a lot of folks with cameras
How
stupid do they think we are?
But,
of course, it’s not about us. It’s about Trump. And
he, alas, is proving to be the overcooked noodle he has been since,
well, pretty much day 1 and ever since: flaccid, confused and
spineless. And yeah, he appears be stupid alright, especially
so-called “plan” to defeat Daesh (more about that below).
And
nevermind that Russian
experts have been warning for along time that the “good terrorists”
had chemical munitions.
Nah! Who cares? besides, these are the same evil
Russkies who
have now been “unmasked” courtesy of a CIA report about “foreign
agents”.
We
all know that Anglo-Zionists are peace loving, shy and generally kind
people. This is why we think of them as the “Axis of
Kindness”. The only way to really force their hand and make
them use their “best military in the world” is to show them dead
children. Like in Kuwait, in Bosnia, in Iraq, Afghanistan,
Libya and now Syria. That, and women raped for political
reasons (Bosnia, Libya – soon in Syria I suppose). Good thing
that the latest atrocity of the “Syrian regime” came in daylight
and involved lots of horribly dying children!
Now
the Americans will get to destroy
the village to save it.
Except
they won’t.
There
have been plenty of articles speculating about what the “Trump
plan” for defeating ISIS/Daesh will be. I won’t even bother
listing them here. In plain English his plan is, how should I
put it, not very complex:
- Increase the number of US troops already present in Syria
- Offer the Kurds their own autonomous region in exchange for acting like cannon-fodder for Uncle Sam
- Liberate Raqqa as a tangible sign of success
In
truth, there is nothing new here. It’s is just a re-heated
version of the very same plan Obama had(great
minds think alike, and so do the not so great, apparently).
Can
you see the problem with this plan?
Let
me help here. Problem #1 – no UNSC Resolution will back it.
Neither will the Syrian government. But who cares, right?
We already know that Nikki Haley thinks about that: once again the US
will arrogantly violate international law under the pretext of “being
compelled to take action”. Welcome back to Bosnia and
Croatia! It’s 1994 again! We now live in the era of the
“RTP – responsibility to protect”. International Law,
RIP. But that is only a ‘minor’ problem. The real
problem is simple:
Besides
the Syrians themselves, the Russians, the Iranians and the Turks are
categorically against such a plan. And these four countries
just happen to represent the overwhelming military force in Syria,
and all of them *already* have boots on the ground (and air defense
systems). For Turkey especially, such a plan is a casus
belli,
they have said so many times. I am no big fan of Turkey or
Erdogan (although I do like the Turkish people themselves), but I
have to admit that should Trump go ahead with this goofy plan he will
live no other choice then to chose between war or civil war.
Mostly likely a combo of both.
Then
there are the Kurds. Actually, in many ways I feel sorry for
them and I admire them. But they have to realize the enormous
dangers of accepting the US plan. First, that means that they
will be the frontline cannon-fodder against Daesh which happens to be
one of the best trained and experienced infantry force in the
region. But worse, do the Kurds really commit the same
historical mistake as the Albanian of Kosovo who have 100% linked
their future with Camp
Bondsteel and
who will be instantly re-invaded by the Serbia as soon as NATO or the
US leave (which they will, sooner or later, inevitably).
There
is a reason why the US always supports minorities everywhere: because
by accepting and relying on that support these minorities always
become completely dependent upon the USA. That, in turn, means
that the US can then use these minorities in any way they want “or
else”. And, since sooner or later the Americans leaves, the
“or else” inevitably and always happen.
I
submit that it would be the hight of folly for the Kurds to commit
the same mistake. Yes, sure, they want their autonomy and/or
their own country. But they have to realize that
the only viable way to achieve either
objective is by negotiations with their neighbors, not
some ignorant US official who will forget about them as soon as he is
done promising them the moon. I would remind the Kurd of a
time-honored US tradition here: as soon as things get ugly, the
Americans “declare victory and leave”.
That
also means that the Kurds might have to settle for less than what
they want. Politics is the art of the possible. But if
the choice is some viable limited autonomy vs full independence
followed by an inevitable war against Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria
then I think that the former is the best possible outcome. But
even if we assume that the Kurds decide to try the “Kosovar
option”.
Iran
is the number one military power on the ground. And Hezbollah.
The Syrians are struggling, I will admit to that. But they are
holding and making incremental efforts, some of their best units are
actually pretty good. As for the skies over Syria – they are
Russian.
So
far, the Americans have not re-heated the “no fly zone” concept,
but they might as well, since their entire plan is idiotic to the
extreme. Besides, I simply cannot imagine US generals agreeing
to deploy their forces in Syria without air cover (in case you did
not know, the US solider cannot fight without air cover. He
just won’t. It’s “air cover for me or I don’t fight”).
However, air cover for the US forces in Syria imply either a tacit
agreement with the Russians and the Syrians, something like what the
Israelis apparently have, or an immense risk for the USAF and USN
aircraft. So we are back to negotiating with the Russians and
via the Russians, with the Syrians.
In
fact, I bet you that this is what the Americans are doing right now.
Quietly negotiating with the Russians. Problem: the Neocons
hate Russia and everything Russian. And they loathe Putin.
So how does the State Department or the White House negotiate with
the Russians while, at the very same time, Congress, the US media and
the CIA are all engaging into a hysterical and paranoid hate-campaign
against Russia?
So
here is Trump’s conundrum: he desperately needs the real enemies of
Daesh – Russia, Iran and Syria – to agree to his plan but at the
same time, he is too much of a whip to tackle the hate campaign
against, well, Russia, Iran and Syria inside the United States.
The
Neocons, apparently backed by the CIA and the Pentagon, want to go at
it solo: just shoot up all of Syria “OK Corral” style and they
seem to be convinced that they can somehow scare the Russians, the
Iranians and the Syrian into submission. If so, then they are
both stupid and ignorant. Or, there is even a worse
possibility: the Neocons *know* that this plan will end up in
disaster, but they want Trump to go to war anyway because that will
destroy his presidency. That is almost elegant, in a perverted
way.
What
is sure is that you will never see a Neocon in frontline combat.
Neither they nor their kids will die no matter what they do. Or
so they think. This is one of the main reasons why these
Neocons are the single biggest danger for the United States and the
American people: they despise the real American people and they won’t
hesitate to sacrifice them, in large numbers if needed (9/11
anybody?).
This
is why so many Americans voted for Trump and his promise “to drain
the swamp”.
Alas,
the swamp drained Trump and all is back to “normal”.
So
what happens next? My fervent hope: nothing. Absolutely
nothing. As long as the Americans are all talk and as long as
they don’t actually do anything, there could be real progress in
Syria (Daesh is alreadyloosing the war!). I hope
that the Kurds will, you know, “kinda, sort of, give it a try”
and then stop before things go critical. Should the Kurds
really decide to fight for Uncle Sam, I hope that they will keep in
mind that the US will dump them as soon as Raqqa is liberated simply
because really creating some kind of autonomy for the Kurds against
the will of Syria, Iran and, most importantly, Turkey could result in
Erdogan really slamming the door on NATO and Turkey leaving the
alliance. Should that happen the only option left for Turkey
would be some kind of understanding, and maybe even alliance, with
Russia and Iran. The various domino effect scenarios are almost
infinite and nothing is really impossible.
Right
now the Americans are still sort of busy liberating Mosul. I
suppose if they stay at it long enough they will eventually succeed,
at least for a while. I don’t see them really controlling the
city for very long. They might build a US ‘consular fortress’
like in Bagdad or Kabul, but that will not mean that they control the
city. If they intend to liberate Raqqa as long as they took to
liberate Mosul then this can continue for a long, long while.
There
is a scarier possibility: the US begins its operation in Syria, runs
into problems, and then begins the endless cycle of escalations and
doubling-down. Sooner or later, that means clashing with the
Russians and that could turn ugly very fast. A direct clash
with Iran with equally unpredictable consequences. If that
happens, a lot of Americans will die.
Assuming
that there still is somebody rational and sane left in the Trump
administration with enough influence, then all this madness can still
be stopped. There is also the very real possibility that the
current fight inside the US elites will drain so much energy that
nobody will really have to time and energy to engage in very risky
foreign military operations. And if all else fails, maybe
somebody will suggest to Trump that a unilateral military
intervention in Syria is pure folly and will cost him his
presidency. Maybe this is an argument which he will understand.
2018
will be a very tough year. I don’t think that there is any
hope left for a real change in US policies and I am afraid that we
are going to have to learn how to live with some kind of Obama 2.0 or
some other form of “neo-neoconism”.
It
felt really good to hope for a while. Now we have to accept
that our hopes never materialized and resume the struggle.
The
Saker
PS:
I just learned that, just as I had predicted, Bannon has been removed
from the US National Security Council. See for
yourself:
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-05/bannon-removed-from-national-security-council-role-in-shakeup.
Now the coup against Trump is fully completed. And Bloomberg
celebrates “Intelligence director, Joint Chiefs chairman
elevated”. Yeah, no kidding! It’s over folks, the
Neocons have totally crushed Trump. And he did not even given them a
halfway decent fight…
Commentary
Mag is already
celebrating: https://www.commentarymagazine.com/politics-ideas/step-toward-rational-national-security-council/ like
it’s Purim all over again
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