Huge fleet of icebergs hits North Atlantic shipping lanes
About
450 icebergs – up from 37 a week earlier – have drifted into
waters where Titanic sank, forcing vessels to divert and raising
global warming fears
6 April, 2017
More
than 400 icebergs have drifted into the North Atlantic shipping lanes
over the past week in an unusually large swarm for this early in the
season, forcing vessels to slow to a crawl or take detours of
hundreds of kilometres.
Experts
are attributing it to uncommonly strong counter-clockwise winds that
are drawing the icebergs south, and perhaps also global warming,
which is accelerating the process by which chunks
of the Greenland ice sheet break off and
float way.
As
of Monday, there were about 450 icebergs near the Grand Banks of
Newfoundland, up from 37 a week earlier, according to the US Coast
Guard’s international ice patrol in New London, Connecticut. Those
kinds of numbers are usually not seen until late May or early June.
The average for this time of year is about 80.
In
the waters close to where
the Titanic went down in 1912,
the icebergs are forcing ships to take precautions.
Instead
of cutting straight across the ocean, trans-Atlantic vessels are
taking detours that can add around 650km (400 miles) to the trip.
That’s a day and a half of added travel time for many large cargo shpis.
Close
to the Newfoundland coast, cargo ships owned by Oceanex are
throttling way back to three or four knots as they make their way to
their home port in St John’s, which can add up to a day to the
trip, said executive chairman Captain Sid Hynes.
One
ship was pulled out of service for repairs after hitting a chunk of
ice, he said.
“It
makes everything more expensive,” Hynes said. “You’re burning
more fuel, it’s taking a longer time, and it’s hard on the
equipment.” He called it a “very unusual year”.
US
Coast Guard Commander Gabrielle McGrath, who leads the ice patrol,
said she had never seen such a drastic increase in such a short time.
Adding to the danger, three icebergs were discovered outside the
boundaries of the area the Coast Guard had advised mariners to avoid,
she said.
McGrath
is predicting a fourth consecutive “extreme ice season” with more
than 600 icebergs in the shipping lanes.
Most
icebergs entering the North Atlantic have “calved” off the
Greenland ice sheet. Michael Mann, director of the earth system
science center at Pennsylvania State University, said it was possible
climate change was leading to more icebergs in the shipping lanes,
but wind patterns were also important.
Giant iceberg poised to break off from Antarctic self
In
2014, there were 1,546 icebergs in the shipping lanes – the sixth
most severe season on record since 1900, according to the patrol.
There were 1,165 icebergs in 2015 and 687 in 2016.
The international
ice patrol was formed after the sinking of the Titanic to
monitor iceberg danger in the North Atlantic and warn ships. It
conducts reconnaissance flights that are used to produce chats.
In
104 years, no ship that has heeded the warnings has struck an
iceberg, according to the ice patrol.
In
India, it was still February. The hot season was supposed to begin
two months later in April. But temperatures in some
coastal provinces had
already rocketed to above 100 degrees F (38 C).
According
to Indian meteorological sources, there are no weather records of
temperatures hitting such high marks so fast at any time in at least
the past 20 years. Temperatures in late February and March for this
region hit a range that is more typical of the height of the hot
season from April to May. And when one considers the fact that India
has experienced extreme heat and drought for at least the past two
years running, the present context is notably disturbing.
(For
India, a heatwave that came two months early has already reached an
extreme intensity. Yesterday, most of the country saw temperatures
above 104 F [40 C] with some locations hitting as high as 113 F [45
C]. Over the coming weeks, this heat is likely to become even more
intense. Image source: Earth
Nullschool.)
If
temperatures started out hot, they’ve only grown hotter. By late
March, Nagpur
had hit as high as 109 F (43 C ) on Tuesday of last week — its
thirteenth straight day of highs above 104 F (40
C). Last week New Dehli saw the end of an 8 day streak of 100 F (38
C) + readings. And places like Bhira were already imposing noon
curfews to protect residents from the heat. By April 5, most of the
country was experiencing above 100 F (38 C) readings (see above
graphic).
Worst
Still To Come
Despite
precautions to prevent death and injury that began as early as March
8, heat mortality is already a problem. As of March 30th, two deaths
had already been reported. And though the mortality is now no-where
near the tragedies of past years as
2,000 souls were lost to heat during 2015 and 700 were lost during
2016,
the early appearance of killing heat in 2017 does not bode well.
(Predicted
temperature anomalies for April through June of 2017 shows that a
severe heatwave is on the way. Image source: Hindustan
Times.)
According
to meteorological reports, this early heat has set the stage for very
extreme conditions from June through April:
The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) seasonal forecast shows the worst is yet to come, as vast swathes of the country are set to reel under scorching heat from April to June before the monsoon arrives…The forecast is a reflection of the searing heat in most parts of India, including the national capital, since March. New Delhi endured its hottest March in seven years this season, and the mercury is refusing to relent.
As
with recent years, and with El Nino emerging in the Equatorial
Pacific, there is also now some risk that the Indian Monsoon will
again be delayed. So we could end up with a situation where the hot
season starts early, becomes very intense in April-June, and ends
late.
Conditions
in Context
With
the Earth now 1.1 to 1.2 C warmer than 1880s values, the climate of
India has already changed. Glaciers and snowpacks in the Himalayas
are less extensive. Heatwaves and droughts are more intense. And the
summer monsoon is often delayed.
(Present
extreme heat, drought, and lengthening of the hot season is
consistent with the expected impacts of human forced climate change
to India. The above graphic lists additional expected impacts for the
state. Image source: Climate
Change and India.)
Almost
every year now, there is news of crippling heat and drought. By late
April of 2016, the
combination of extreme heat and drought generated severe water stress
for 330 million people.
This year, the progression of extreme heat and drought has occurred
far earlier than normal. And these severe conditions related to
human-forced climate change set a very hot and grim stage for India
during 2017. As a result, the risk of heat mortality, water stress,
crop damage and other heatwave and drought related impacts is very
high for India as we enter the months of April and May — when
conditions tend to be at their hottest.
Unfortunately,
since so much carbon has already been emitted into the Earth’s
atmosphere from fossil fuel burning, droughts and heatwaves are
likely to continue to become more and more intense for India over at
least the next two decades. And the longer large volumes of carbon
continue to hit the atmosphere, the worse and worse the situation for
India becomes.
(UPDATED)
Links:
Hat
tip to Ryan in New England
Hat
tip to Spike
Melting Away: Chunk of Antarctic Ice Shelf Hanging ‘By a Thread’
All
eyes are on the Larsen C ice shelf in Antarctica, where an iceberg
2,000 square miles in area will soon break away. The only thing
keeping the chunk of ice attached to its shelf is a 12-mile “thread”
that could vanish at any time.
Larsen
C began to calve in summer 2016, and the crack grew rapidly, from 300
feet wide in November to 1,500 feet in February. The crack first
formed in 2010 but seemed on the verge of breaking away entirely once
calving began, having grown to 110 miles long.
Since
February, though, the growth of the crack has slowed to a crawl. "It
is particularly hard to predict when it will occur," said Adrian
Luckman of Project MIDAS, a British government group that has been
monitoring Larsen C for years, in an email to USA Today. "I am
quite surprised as to how long it is holding on!"
Antarctic
Ice Crack to Produce Monstrous Iceberg Later This Year (VIDEO)
There
may be more surprises coming, however, as Luckman pointed out that,
"this is not a predictable process because we know only a little
about the nature of the ice. It could go today, or it may be months."
Ice
shelves already float on top of the water, so the breakaway of a
chunk of Larsen C won't raise sea levels very much. A relatively
small amount of ice trapped in the ice shelf will fall into the sea
when the iceberg completes the process.
The
Larsen ice shelf has been slowly disintegrating over the last few
decades, with Larsen A breaking away in 1995 and Larsen B in 2002.
Larsen C itself isn't going to break away, just a piece of it that
makes up about a tenth of its overall area. The piece is still quite
large, a good bit larger than the US state of Rhode Island.
Gigantic
as the crack is, it will not create a new iceberg. The object will
float into the sea, break apart into pieces and then melt into the
ocean, according to Project MIDAS.
But
for a brief moment between calving and dissolving, the Larsen C chunk
will be the fifth largest iceberg on record.
CarbonLevels Could Hit Pre-Human, 'Palms in the Arctic' State byMid-Century
If
fossil fuel use continues unabated, atmosphere could revert "to
values of CO2 not seen since the early Eocene (50 million years
ago)," new report finds
Current
carbon dioxide levels are unprecedented in human history and could
reach a level unseen in millennia if their rates continue at this
pace, a new
report out
Tuesday warns.
Research
published in Nature
Communications finds
that if fossil fuel use continues unabated, the atmosphere could
revert "to values of CO2 not seen since the early Eocene (50
million years ago)," a time when humans did not exist, by the
middle of the 21st century.
Dana
L. Royer, a paleoclimate researcher at Wesleyan University and
co-author of the study, told Climate
Central,
"The early Eocene was much warmer than today: global mean
surface temperature was at least 10°C (18°F) warmer than today.
There was little-to-no permanent ice. Palms and crocodiles inhabited
the Canadian Arctic."
Because
carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for centuries, climate change
would continue to impact the planet even if humans miraculously
dropped emissions to zero after hitting that mid-century peak, Royer
said.
Indeed,
global warming may have already locked in the Antarctic ice sheet
for unstoppable
melting—driving
sea level rise and threatening coastal communities worldwide.
The
authors continue, "If CO2 continues to rise further into the
twenty-third century, then the associated large increase in radiative
forcing, and how the Earth system would respond, would likely be
without geological precedent in the last half a billion years."
The
report comes as the Trump administration turns
its back on
climate regulations, issuing an executive order last week that aims
to undo Obama-era policies keeping a lid on greenhouse gas emissions.
"Aside
from provoking a large-scale nuclear war, it is hard to imagine an
American president taking an action more harmful to the U.S. than
[President Donald] Trump's effort to accelerate greenhouse gas
emissions," David J. Arkush, managing director of Public
Citizen's Climate Program, said at the time.
"This
day may be remembered as a low point in human history—a time when
the world's preeminent power could have led the world to a better
future but instead moved decisively toward catastrophe," Arkush
added.
Here
is the latest from Paul Beckwith, who seems to be back on-message
after lashing out at the NTHE community and Guy McPherson.
Do Jet Streams Vanish with Arctic Sea-Ice?
What
happens to the jet streams when we lose all Arctic sea ice and snow
cover? Do they vanish? Do they still exist as a weak remnant farther
north? Does the 3 cell atmospheric circulation reduce to 2 cells or
even 1 cell? It would be nice knowing these things, before they
actually happen in a few short years.
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