Signals of Climate Change Visible as Record Fires Give Way to Massive Floods in Peru
“We’ve
rarely seen this kind of rapid and quick change in climatic
conditions.” — Juber
Ruiz, of Peru’s Civil Defense Institute
*****
16
March, 2017
During
September through November, wildfires
tore across parts of drought-stricken Peru.
Peru’s
Amazon was then experiencing its worst dry period in 20 years. And,
at the time, over 100,000 acres of rainforest and farmland was
consumed by flash fires. Rainforest species, ill-adapted to fires,
were caught unawares. And
a tragic tale of charred remains of protected species littering a
once-lush, but now smoldering, wood spread in the wake of the odd
blazes.
(Last
November, wildfires burned through the Amazon rainforest in Peru as
a record drought left the region bone-dry. From Drought
Now Spans the Globe.
Image source: LANCE-MODIS.)
At
the time, scientists
noted that the after-effects of El Nino had combined with a warmer
world to help spur the drought and the fires.
And they warned Peru to prepare for more extreme weather in the
future as Earth continued to heat up.
Fast
forward to 2017 and we find that the moisture regime has taken a hard
turn in Peru as the droughts and fires of 2016 gave way to torrential
rains. Since
January, more than 62 souls have been lost and about 12,000 homes
destroyed as flash floods ripped through Peru.
Over the past three days, the rains have been particularly intense —
turning streets into roaring rivers and causing streams to over-top —
devouring roads, bridges and buildings. As of yesterday, 176
districts within the country have declared a state of emergency due
to flooding.
The
rains come as coastal waters off Peru have seen sky-rocketing
temperatures. Sea surface readings over recent months have
climbed from an average of 24 degrees Celsius to 29 degrees Celsius.
These extremely warm waters are pumping a huge plume of moisture into the local atmosphere. And it’s this extraordinarily heavy moisture loading that is spurring the massive rainstorms now plaguing the state.
These extremely warm waters are pumping a huge plume of moisture into the local atmosphere. And it’s this extraordinarily heavy moisture loading that is spurring the massive rainstorms now plaguing the state.
Scientists
call this phenomena a coastal El Nino.
And the last time Peru experienced one was in 1925. Though the coastal El Nino probably helped to spur the extreme rains now plaguing Peru, the peak sea surface temperatures of the very warm waters off Peru have also been increased by the larger human-forced warming of the world (primarily through fossil fuel burning). So many scientists are also now saying that the severe rainfall events now occurring in Peru were likely contributed to by climate change.
And the last time Peru experienced one was in 1925. Though the coastal El Nino probably helped to spur the extreme rains now plaguing Peru, the peak sea surface temperatures of the very warm waters off Peru have also been increased by the larger human-forced warming of the world (primarily through fossil fuel burning). So many scientists are also now saying that the severe rainfall events now occurring in Peru were likely contributed to by climate change.
(Sea
surface temperature anomaly map shows that ocean surfaces are more
than 5 C above average off coastal Peru. Image source: Earth
Nullschool.)
New
Peru movement leader Verónika Mendoza noted
earlier this week:
“We know the ‘coastal El Niño’ comes from time to time. We know we are a country that is extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change. We should have prepared ourselves better.”
The
climate extremes Peru has experienced — flipping from flash drought
and wildfires to flash flood in just 5-6 months is exactly the kind
wrenched weather we can expect more and more from climate change. For
as the Earth warms, the amount of moisture evaporated from lands,
oceans, lakes and rivers increases.
As a result, the hydrological cycle gets kicked into higher gear. And what this means it that droughts and fires will tend to become more intense even as rains, when they do fall, will tend to be heavier.
As a result, the hydrological cycle gets kicked into higher gear. And what this means it that droughts and fires will tend to become more intense even as rains, when they do fall, will tend to be heavier.
Links:
Hat
tip to Vic
Hat
tip to Colorado Bob
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