Guy Mcpherson checks out as an honest purveyor of information The Charney Report 1979 - page viii "The conclusions of this brief but intense investigation may be comforting to scientists but disturbing to policymakers. If carbon dioxide continues to increase, the study group finds no reason to doubt that climate changes will result and no reason to believe that these changes will be negligible. The conclusions of prior studies have been generally reaffirmed. However, the global climate system, may be expected to slow the course of observable climate change. A wait-and- see policy may mean waiting until it is too late."
Page 6 "Considering the uncertainties, it would appear that a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide will occur by 2030 if the use of fossil fuels continues to grow at a ratio of about 4 percent per year, as was the case until a few years ago. .... at today's levels shifts the time for doubling well into the twenty-second century."?
My note: Doubling as read it means 580ppm. The pre-industrial level understood in 1979 to be 290ppm & not 280ppm as understood today. They were expecting about a 2C to 3.5C eventual Heat balance from doubling about 2030.
Page 8. Ignoring feedbacks ...."For such a case, doubled CO2 produces a temperature increase of 1C." 1C was expected by 2030. Water vapor increases by about a factor of 2. "For a doubled CO2, the temperature increase would be 2C.
Page 1 (We) ...."have assumed a rate of CO2 increase that would lead to a doubling of airborne concentrations by some time in the first half of the twenty-first century."
When it is assumed that the CO2 content of the atmosphere is doubled, and statistical thermal equilibrium is achieved, the more realistic of the modeling efforts predict a global surface warming of between 2C & 3.5C, with greater increases at high latitudes. Page 2 "The warming will be accompanied by shifts in the geographical distribution of various climatic elements such as temperature, rainfall, evaporation and soil moisture. The evidence is that variations in the anomalies with latitude, longitude, and season well be at least as great as the globally and season will be at least as great as the globally averaged changes themselves, and it would be misleading to predict regional climatic changes on the basis of the global or zonal averages alone."
....It appears that the warming will eventually occur, and the associated regional climatic changes so important p.Vii "For more than a century, we have been aware that changes in the composition of the atmosphere could affect its ability ot trap the sun's energy for our benefit. We now have incontrovertible evidence that the atmosphere is indeed changing and that we ourselves contribute to that change. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are steadily increasing, and these changes are linked with man's use of fossil fuels and exploitation of the land. Since carbon dioxide plays a significant role in the heat budget of the atmosphere, it is reasonable to suppose that continued increases would affect climate. ....consensus has been that increasing carbon dioxide will lead to a warmer earth with a different distribution of climate regimes." to the assessment of socioeconomic consequences may well be significant.... Page 17 "If the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere is indeed doubled and remains so long enough for the atmosphere and the intermediate layers of the ocean to attain approximate thermal equilibrium, our best estimate is that changes in global temperature of the order of 3C will occur and that the will be accompanied by significant changes in regional climatic patterns.
Guy Mcpherson checks out as an honest purveyor of information
ReplyDeleteThe Charney Report 1979
- page viii
"The conclusions of this brief but
intense investigation may be comforting
to scientists but disturbing to
policymakers. If carbon dioxide
continues to increase, the study group
finds no reason to doubt that climate
changes will result and no reason to
believe that these changes will be
negligible. The conclusions of prior
studies have been generally reaffirmed.
However, the global climate system, may
be expected to slow the course of
observable climate change. A wait-and-
see policy may mean waiting until it is
too late."
Page 6
"Considering the uncertainties, it would
appear that a doubling of atmospheric
carbon dioxide will occur by 2030 if the
use of fossil fuels continues to grow at
a ratio of about 4 percent per year, as
was the case until a few years ago. ....
at today's levels shifts the time for
doubling well into the twenty-second
century."?
My note: Doubling as read it means
580ppm. The pre-industrial level
understood in 1979 to be 290ppm & not
280ppm as understood today.
They were expecting about a 2C to 3.5C
eventual Heat balance from doubling about
2030.
Page 8. Ignoring feedbacks ...."For such
a case, doubled CO2 produces a
temperature increase of 1C."
1C was expected by 2030. Water vapor
increases by about a factor of 2.
"For a doubled CO2, the temperature
increase would be 2C.
Page 1
(We) ...."have assumed a rate of CO2
increase that would lead to a doubling of
airborne concentrations by some time in
the first half of the twenty-first
century."
When it is assumed that the CO2 content
of the atmosphere is doubled, and
statistical thermal equilibrium is
achieved, the more realistic of the
modeling efforts predict a global surface
warming of between 2C & 3.5C, with greater
increases at high latitudes.
Page 2
"The warming will be accompanied by shifts
in the geographical distribution of
various climatic elements such as
temperature, rainfall, evaporation and
soil moisture. The evidence is that
variations in the anomalies with
latitude, longitude, and season well be
at least as great as the globally and
season will be at least as great as the
globally averaged changes themselves, and
it would be misleading to predict
regional climatic changes on the basis
of the global or zonal averages alone."
....It appears that the warming will
eventually occur, and the associated
regional climatic changes so important
p.Vii
"For more than a century, we have been aware that changes in the composition of the atmosphere could affect its ability ot trap the sun's energy for our benefit. We now have incontrovertible evidence that the atmosphere is indeed changing and that we ourselves contribute to that change. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are steadily increasing, and these changes are linked with man's use of fossil fuels and exploitation of the land. Since carbon dioxide plays a significant role in the heat budget of the atmosphere, it is reasonable to suppose that continued increases would affect climate. ....consensus has been that increasing carbon dioxide will lead to a warmer earth with a different distribution of climate regimes."
to the assessment of socioeconomic
consequences may well be significant....
Page 17
"If the CO2 concentration of the
atmosphere is indeed doubled and remains
so long enough for the atmosphere and the
intermediate layers of the ocean to
attain approximate thermal equilibrium,
our best estimate is that changes in
global temperature of the order of 3C
will occur and that the will be
accompanied by significant changes in
regional climatic patterns.