Attack?
then don't complain if you end up retreating to Kiev -- Zakharchenko
5
August, 2016
Translated
by Tom Winter August 6, 2016
The
head of the DNI said that Ukraine's army has been preparing to
attack, and assured that there will not be a "Minsk III."
If
the Ukrainian authorities decide to forget about the Minsk agreements
and attack the Donbass, then they should not complain, if they end up
retreating to Kiev. This was stated by the head of the Donetsk
People's Republic Alexander Zakharchenko.
"The
reports from our intelligence are that on the other side of the front
line everything is ready for an assault. From the political point of
view - the undermining of the Minsk process will be from the side of
Kiev. Furthermore, a Kiev offensive wil close the Minsk process,"
Zakharchenko writes on his website.
He
believes that, in the current difficult situation in Ukraine, another
turn at war may be the only way for Poroshenko to stay in power.
"That
is, the whole thing goes to the fact that Poroshenko, like a cornered
rat, will rush into the Donbass. Maybe he himself, or perhaps by
proxy. For example, give the command to the destroyer battalions to
provoke renewed conflict, and then he will blame them for it. But the
result will be the same - war," said Zakharchenko.
"We
do not want war, because we - as opposed to those who live in the
former Ukraine - know that it is not like on TV. But if Kiev will
attack us, once again, I can tell you one thing - no complaining
afterwards, if you retreat to Kiev: there will not be a "Minsk
III," said Alexander Zakharchenko
Assassination
attempt on east Ukrainian leader raises tensions and provokes
questions
Attempted
assassination of Igor Plotnitsky, leader of the breakaway Lugansk
People's Republic, provokes fears of infighting and of a possible
Ukrainian summer offensive.
Alexander
Mercouris
5
August, 2016
News
of the
assassination attempt on Igor Plotnitsky, the
head of the breakaway Lugansk People’s Republic, will come as no
surprise to close observers of the Ukrainian conflict.
Whilst
there is a strong possibility that the assassination attempt was the
work of the Ukrainian secret service the SBU, it is by no means
impossible that it is the result of factional infighting within the
Lugansk People’s Republic.
Whereas
the political situation in the neighbouring Donetsk People’s
Republic has stabilised with its leader Alexander Zakharchenko
apparently both effective and popular, the same has not been true of
the Lugansk People’s Republic where Igor Plotnitsky is a
controversial figure and where there has been a string of unsolved
murders going back to the early part of last year.
The
most notorious of these murders was the one in May last year when the
popular militia leader Alexey Mozgovoy was killed in a roadside
ambush. Mozgovoy was a known critic of Plotnitsky’s and
was opposed to the Minsk II peace process, which Plotnitsky,
Zakharchenko and Russia have all backed. Inevitably
Plotnitsky was accused by some of Mozgovoy’s murder, though
evidence for that is slight. Others blame the Ukrainian
SBU. The Ukrainians for their part predictably blame
Mozgovoy’s murder on Russia’s military intelligence agency the
GRU.
The
continued instability in the Lugansk People’s Republic must be
causing the Russian authorities serious concern. Whatever their
long term aims for Ukraine the Russians need the two People’s
Republics to be politically stable if the Minsk II process to which
they are committed is to have any chance of success. Almost
certainly in the aftermath of the assassination attempt there will be
concerned discussions underway in Moscow about what can be done to
stabilise the situation in the Lugansk People’s Republic. It
is not impossible that the Russian authorities will take a hand in
the investigation of the assassination attempt.
As
for Plotnitsky, he was apparently seriously wounded though his aides
say his life is not in danger. Given his failure to
stabilise the situation in the Lugansk People’s Republic the
Russians must be wondering however whether he is the right man to be
its leader. There will be others in the Lugansk People’s
Republic who will be asking the same question.
Compounding
these worries will be fears in Lugansk and Moscow about a
possible Ukrainian offensive this
summer. So far, though fighting and shelling along the contact
line has been going on continuously for weeks, no actual offensive
has taken place. That may be a sign that Russian warnings are
being heeded. However it is unfortunately fully possible
that the attempted assassination of Plotnitsky is part of a Ukrainian
attempt to destabilise the Lugansk People’s Republic before such an
offensive is launchd.
A
particular reason to worry that that might indeed be the Ukrainian
plan is the start of the Olympic Games in Rio. If there is
a Ukrainian plan to launch an offensive as world attention is focused
on the Olympic Games in Rio, then it would not be the first time that
Russia’s regional enemies have used the Olympic Games to give
themselves cover for an action they are taking. In 2008 Georgia timed
its ill-starred invasion of South Ossetia to take place during the
Beijing Olympics, whilst the Maidan coup in February 2014 happened
during the winter Olympics in Sochi.
If
that is the Ukrainian calculation then it is certainly wrong.
It is very doubtful that the death or wounding of such a
controversial figure as Plotnitsky would seriously impact on the East
Ukrainian militia’s effectiveness. As for Russia, Putin
has made it clear that Russia will not allow the Donetsk and Lugansk
People’s Republics to be overrun by the Ukrainian army, and any
idea Russia would be put off from acting decisively because the
Olympics Games in Rio are underway is fanciful.
Fort
Russ Exclusive: Plotnitsky failed hit means All-Out War
Fort
Russ News -
-
By: Eduard Popov for Fort Russ - Translated by J. Arnoldski
6
August, 2016
Today
we witnessed an assassination attempt on the head of the Lugansk
People’s Republic, Igor Plotnitsky. Plotnitsky was wounded but his
life is not in danger. He has even managed to issue a statement in
which he accuses the Ukrainian government and the US special forces
standing behind it for the attempt on his life. The Speaker of the
National Council of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Denis Pushilin,
went even further in his commentary. In his opinion, the attempt on
the leader of the LPR means that Kiev has “opted for escalation.”
The
latter statement can only be agreed with. In addition to the
intelligence of the people’s republics, the Ukrainian side itself
has confirmed this version. Ukrainian media have repeatedly reported
the formation of specialized units prepared to assassinate the
leaders of the people’s republics of Donbass. The existence of
these units has been confirmed by some of the leaders of Ukrainian
security structures. Back on April 19th, 2016, the then head of the
SBU, Vasiliy Gritsak, offered journalists his prediction as to the
fate of the Donbass republics’ leaders, stating that Alexander
Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky would “finally be taken out.”
Lugansk region governor Georgy Tuka demanded that official Kiev carry
out a special operation in Donbass whose aim would be the physical
elimination of the people’s republics heads. These “predictions”
and calls did not remain empty slogans.
On
April 30th, the Ministry of State Security of the DPR relayed the
following message: Ukrainian President Poroshenko has ordered the
liquidation of the heads of the DPR and LPR. Moreover, the report
mentioned the use of an explosive device. On April 27th, an
unsuccessful attempt was made on the life of DPR head Alexander
Zakharchenko.
LPR
head Igor Plotnitsky has not enjoyed as much popularity as DPR head
Alexander Zakharchenko. Unlike the latter, who personally
participated in several major combat operations, Plotnitsky is above
all a civilian administrator. Nevertheless, eliminating this figure
would certainly jerk the chain of command in Lugansk. As a minimum,
it would take some time to reconnect the disrupted chain of
management.
This
matches and confirms Pushilin’s words that Ukraine is preparing an
offensive against Donbass. The logic of the Ukrainian side’s
actions leaves one to assume that other terrorist attacks will soon
follow on both the territory of the people’s republics and nearby
Kiev-controlled areas of Donbass. Other assassination attempts on the
DPR and LPR’s iconic military and political leaders should be
expected. One would like to believe that these attempts will be
unsuccessful. But most important is that their effectiveness will be
a priori low, since the Donbass republics already wield mechanisms
for state authority and military control.
Today,
unlike in 2014 or 2015, the DPR and LPR are real states, albeit
incomplete ones. A fully-fledged army has been formed in the place of
the militia and in this army, unlike in mere combat formations, the
role of individual, charismatic leaders is much lower. The same
applies to the state formations now dealing with mechanisms of
governance. Therefore, even in the case of successful attempts,
Ukraine will not achieve any real, formidable successes.
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