Seemorerocks: Who was behind the attempted coup in Turkey?

Making sense of Turkey

Seemorerocks

Events in Turkey in the last week have probably been very confusing for people who are not following this very closely.

SOME BACKGROUND

Those who follow this blog will be well aware of Turkey’s role in supporting ISIS and other terrorist groups. RT has done an excellent job in providing direct evidence of a constant flow of tankers bringing oil across the border from Syria.

There is considerable evidence of Turkey’s direct support for terrorist groups in Syria - a great many fighters headed for Syria transit through Turkey.

Then there is Turkey’s role in the refugee crisis, unleashing a million or so refugees into Europe (along with a smattering of jihadists amonst them) and their subsequent extortion of billions of Euros from a seemingly-willing EU to 'fix’ the problem.

Erdogan Unleashes More Threats on Europe as EU-Turkey Deal Falters

Turkey and Erdogan took on a bit more than they could manage when they shot down a Russian SU-24 fighter plane in the north of Syria late last year and murdered the pilot.

Russian Su-24 fighter jet shot down over Syria - Russian MoD 

Putin’s response was immediate – a halting of all economic activity and trade with Turkey and a closing-off of the lucrative tourist trade from Russia.

Putin approves economic sanctions against Turkey following downing of Russian warplane

Erdogan found himself isolated,not only from Russia but also from his erstwhile NATO allies. Eventually the realisation must have dawned on him, with the economy near collapse, that he would have to mend fences with Moscow, so what followed was his apology to the Russians for the shooting-down of the Russian jet and an expressed wish to develop relations with Russia once again.

Turkey faces big losses as Russia sanctions bite

Erdogan apologizes to Putin over death of Russian pilot, calls Russia ‘friend & strategic partner’

EXPLAINING THE COUP

If you get your news from the NY Times, the BBC or Guardian none of this will be common knowledge, so that the Turkish coup will have come like a bolt out of the blue.

As far as the average western reader would know Erdogan was a long-term western ally, who, despite his own fight with the PKK and the Turkish Kurds was playing his part in the “fight against the Islamic State”.

Some other explanation would have to be found and so we get this nonsense from the BBC,which looks everywhere except where the explanations are to be found, without any reference to geopolitics, to the war in Syria or relations with Russia.

It’s all a purely domestic affair with members of the Turkish armed forces being unhappy with Erdogan for some reason of their own.

Turkey coup: Who was behind Turkey coup attempt?

SOME CONTEXT

Context is everything in all of this, so I will do my best.

I found these brief comments from Eric Draitser the most useful place to start -

• The first is Erdogan and AKP (Justice & Development Party) which is in the milieu of the Muslim Brotherhood. It is close to those same networks and pursues MB policies, representing the typical petit bourgeois class that MB always represents.
  
  
• The second is the Kemalist Turkish nationalists. They are historically connected to the Turkish military and deep state, similar to Egypt. They have historically been friendly with NATO while maintaining a somewhat friendly attitude to neighbors and Russia.
  
  
• The third is the faction around Fetullah Gulen, the super-rich Turkish businessman who runs one of the world's largest charter school and private school networks. He is very close to the CIA and has been more or less at war with Erdogan for the last few years.

These three factions have been fighting for power for a while now, and it is these conflicts that really drove Erdogan to consoldiate his power as he has, and implement the draconian laws that have created Turkey's police state.

As I see it, there are several possible explanations for what happened:

• This was a purely internally-driven attempted coup by a group within the military that were unhappy with Erdogan
  
  
• This was a False Flag and the coup was organised by Erdogan himself so he could consolidate his own dictatorial powers. This explanation seems to come from Gulen in the United States and his Turkish followers
  
  
• The attempted was carried out by elements in the military at the behest of the CIA or other elements of the US government.

Fethullah Gulen Accuses Turkey's Erdogan of Staging Coup

Was Turkey's coup attempt just an elaborate hoax by Erdogan?

There is also the question of why the coup failed.

• The coup was badly-organised and inept

• Erdogan, if he did not organise the coup himself, had foreknowledge of it and was able to take action to defeat it

There would seem to be some evidence for each of these explanations.

I gravitate towards thinking that Erdogan's volte face in making overtures to Moscow as well as his increasing isolation with the leadership of the United States, who must have been increasingly seeing his as an unpredicatable and unreliable actor, must have played a major role in determinging the timing of the coup.

One factor that seems important to me is that in the days before the coup the Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin spoke in Ankara, and following the proceedings on the video seemed to be headed for a meeting with Erdogan himself.

I have no idea whether Dugin was acting on his on behalf, or was acting as some sort of emissary for Putin (the article seems to suggest this was this case) but in the context of subsequent events this does seem important

Russia-Turkey: Dugin in Ankara

You won't find much in the way of Washington's displeasure in the MSM, but neo-con Victoria Nuland certainly made her feelings known.

Nuland: the U.S. believes Erdogan's apology to Russia is inappropriate

There seems ample indication that whatever the true feelings of Ecep Erdogan, the Turkish military (who seem to be secular, pro-western, pro-NATO Kemalists) were the ones who pushed the agenda of bringing down the Russian jet.

The Turkish military is not, if I am right, a hotbed for the Islamists - and that means not only the ruling PKK or the Gulinists.

The fundamentalist Muslim followers of Gulen and the secularists should logically be enemies, but according to Sibel Edmonds they are in fact in an anti-Erdogan alliance.

The following is the official response of the US government to the coup - rejection and defense of the "democratically-elected government".

However, I saw a clip of Obama saying "Turkey has always been a good ally of the US" - if you looked at the eyes and body language, clearly Obama was saying exactly the opposite.

Here are some other stories indicating America's displeasure:

John Kerry Threatens Turkey With NATO Expulsion

Turkey coup could threaten country's Nato membership, John Kerry suggests

The bit about human rights etc. are of course nonsense and the reasons for threatening Turkey are, I believe, the same as they were leading up to the coup - that is, that Erdogan was becoming an erratic and unreliable ally in the fight against Syria and Russia (using, of course, as a weapon, the so-called Islamic State).

All the more so since Erdogan's apology and the seeming warming of the relationship with Moscow, which would throw Washington's strategy into disarray.

We all know that whoever the Americans and NATO are fighting in the Middle East,it is not Daesh - whatever the rhetoric and propaganda.

Of course, as we all know, Recep Erdogan is a megalomaniac and indeed, an unreliable player so it is anyone's guess where this could go. Certainly with Erdogan's rhetoric with Washington there now seems little love lost, and I would not be surprised if we are seeing the next Saddam Hussein in-the-making, depending on Washington's strategic interests.

WHODUNNIT?

Despite the fact that he is an inveterate liar, there is a lot of evidence pointing to Fethullah Gülen - Erdogan's erstwhile ally and now enemy, resident in the United States, owner of the largest charter school network in the US and CIA asset - being a major player in this attempted coup.

Evidence abounds (not all of it from sources that could be regarded as waterproof)  that relations with the United States are worsening, apart from what comes from the official press.

Yesterday, the Israeli intelligence site DebkaFiles reported that the 1500 US airmen and their families were being kept under lockdown without electricity.

Turkey: U.S. Airmen & Their Families Locked Down at Air Base

This seemed to be at odds with reports by mainstream media (the last report was about 5 days ago),  that things had been restored to normal.

However, the DebkaFiles story appears to be in part confirmed by NBC news - 

Incirlik Air Base: Post-Coup Power Cut Remains at U.S. Site

In addition, Erdogan is now saying there is a direct link between the pilots who shot down the Russian SU-24 and the Gulen movement.

Erdogan: Link Between Pilots Who Shot Down Russian Su-24 and Gulen Movement

Yesterday, I found (through Wikileaks) a story from the Turkish newspaper,YeniSafak, that indicated that the commander of the Incirlik air base (photographed above) had 12  seperate, secret meetings with the Americans at the base.

It would be hard to imagine they were talking about the weather

Incirlik commander had 12 secret meetings with the Americans

As to Erdogan organising the coup himself as a False Flag, this would appear credible were it not for the evidence.

If one looks at his subsequent actions in consolidating his power through purges that Stalin would surely have approved of and cleaning house, it could easily seem that these were the actions of a megalomaniac madman.

Megalomaniac Erdogan may be, but there is a big difference between staging a False Flag and foreknowledge.

It seems to me that he knew what was comiing and, in the words of Sibel Edmonds, he let them in and used the situation to "clear house"

Certainly it would appear from a very credible journalist, Patrick Cockburn that infiltration by pro-coup forces of the senior ranks of the 600,000-strong armed forces and intelligence apparatus went far deeper than anyone suspected

Turkey government fears second military coup attempt as purge removes many army commanders

An earlier report (that I cannot put my hands on) suggested that although he was betrayed by one general, another spilled the beans and informed the government.

In addition it appears that Russian intelligence picked up the activity and Erdogan was forewarned by Vladimir Putin

Russia warned Turkey of imminent army coup, says Iran’s FNA

If all of that wasn't enough we have reports dating back to late last year of the close connection between the Turkish cleric, Gulen's close relationship with Hillary Clinton and her election campaign

How A Turkish Cleric’s Network Has Penetrated The Clinton Campaign and American Education

A Turkish Muslim cleric named Fethullah Gülen, who resides in Pennsylvania, appears to have brought an unhealthy mix of politics and religion to his country of asylum.

Gülen has built a global religious movement, which has attracted some 5 to 8 million followers worldwide (the exact number is unknown). In the process, some of his followers have apparently amassed tremendous wealth – the Gülen-affiliated net business worth exceeds $25 billion.

Followers Of A Mysterious Turkish Islamic Cleric Have Donated Heavily To Hillary’s Campaign And Family Charity

CONCLUSION

All this, taken together represents at least strong circumstantial evidence of a US involvement in the attempted coup, both through the military based at Incirlik Air Base and the Gulenist movement that has ample connection with the CIA, not to mention the warmonger-in-chief herself, Hillary Clinton.

These are early days but it looks as if this is turning into a foreign policy debacle for the neocons in Washington and may possibly even herald a resetting of the correlation of forces.

Who knows?

We'll see.