Hot Winds Fan Massive, Unprecedented March Wildfire Burning 40 Mile Swath Through Kansas and Oklahoma
24
March, 2016
It’s
likely that we’ve never seen a March wildfire like the beast that
just ripped through Kansas and Oklahoma over the past day. But in a
world that’s now exploring a new peak temperature range near or
above 1.5 C warmer than pre-industrial averages, a level of heat not
seen in the past 110,000 years, we’d be out of our minds to expect
the weather and climate conditions to behave in any kind of manner
that could be considered normal.
We’re
Probably Looking at the Worst Wildfire on Record for Kansas and
Oklahoma
(Massive,
unprecedented, wildfire burns along a 40 mile swath across Kansas and
Oklahoma on Wednesday. Image source: NASA/MODIS.)
And
abnormal absolutely describes what happened in Oklahoma and Kansas
yesterday and today.
The
first sign of trouble was a warning of severe fire risk by weather
officials for a multi-state region of the Central US on Wednesday.
Extremely dry southwest winds gusting to 60 miles per hour coupled
with anomalous temperature readings in the 80s (F) — or about 25
degrees (F) above average for this time of year — spiked fire
hazards across a broad swath stretching from New Mexico and Western
Texas on into Oklahoma and Kansas. The abnormal heat and dry winds
combined to spark one of the worst grass fires on record.
The
fire began in Northern Oklahoma at
around 5:45 PM and almost immediately leapt northward — following
the wind along a 1-2 mile wide swath through the northern portions of
the state before roaring across the border into Kansas. It swelled to
massive size — spewing out a plume of debris so large that
doppler weather radar stations began picking it up.
The large cloud, filled with tinders, dropped burning fragments over
towns as far as 85 miles away from the blaze. People as far away as
Arkansas reported smelling smoke.
During
the height of the fire, the City of Medicine Lodge found itself
facing an encroaching wall of flame on three sides. The nearby Route
160 had been cut off by the fire and as many as 2,000 structures,
including the local hospital, were in danger of being consumed by the
flames. Two
homes burned, two bridges were destroyed and
thousands were urged to evacuate as government officials declared a
state of emergency. The American Red Cross scrambled to set up
disaster shelters for evacuees.
(Anderson
Creek wildfire’s enormous footprint is likely to grow larger over
the coming day before the massive fire is finally contained. For
reference, 212,000 acres is about 300 square miles. Note that by
early afternoon the size of the blaze had jumped to 400,000 acres or
more than 600 square miles. Image source: KOCO.)
As
of this morning, 800-1000 structures in Medicine Lodge remained under
threat. But the fire appeared to have mostly swept around the city.
An overnight shift in the wind had caused the blaze to balloon
eastward. And, according
to the most recent reports,
more than 400,000 acres, or about 600 square miles, had burned along
a 40 mile swath stretching through Kansas and Oklahoma by early
afternoon Thursday.
Conditions
in Context
For
a single fire to burn so much land in just a single day is absolutely
unprecedented for this region. By comparison, the fire season of 2014
was considered to be the worst on record for Kansas — but
it took nearly 4,000 fires to burn 110,000 acres during March of
that year and here we have a single fire that has now exceeded that
record total.
Under
the conditions of human-forced climate change, wildfire risk is
amplified due to a number of factors. First, overall increased
temperatures result in periods of greater and greater fire risk. In
addition, the added heat increases rates of moisture loss,
facilitating drought, flash drought, and brief periods of intense
dryness. Plants, which have adapted over tens of thousands of years
to manage an expected range of moisture levels, are unable to
compensate for the increased heat and dryness and become more
vulnerable to burning.
(Anomalous
heat and dry wind events, like the unseasonable warmth over Oklahoma
and Kansas that pushed March temperatures into the mid 80s [F] over
Oklahoma and Kansas yesterday become more prevalent as human
greenhouse gas emissions force the world to warm. These conditions
are a trigger for increasingly severe wildfire events. Earth
Nullschool GFS capture at 2100 UTC on March 23, 2016.)
Furthermore,
increased prevalence of drought and thawing lands — such a
permafrost thaw — provide an increasing volume of fuels to feed the
fires that do ignite. Fires under such conditions tend to burn hotter
— generating far more destructive and potentially rapidly expanding
blazes than the tamer variety of fires both human beings and the
lands they inhabit are used to. This is a story that could well be
told the world over — from the Arctic to the tropics, to Australia,
New Zealand, South Africa and the tip of South America.
Pretty
much everywhere, increased global heat — now peaking in the range
of 1.5 C above preindustrial temperatures — worsens wildfire risk.
And it’s just one of the many, many negative impacts of rising
global temperatures. But for Kansas and Oklahoma the massive plume of
smoke painting the sky in shades of brown, gray and black may as well
have spelled out the words — climate change.
UPDATE
2:40 PM Friday — Renewed Fire Hazard
By
Friday afternoon, official tallies for total acres burned had
remained at near 400,000 acres in Kansas and Oklahoma and included
another 50,000 acres in Texas — or about 700 square miles over the
three states. New damage estimates included the loss of hundreds and
perhaps thousands of cattle along with many hundreds of miles of
fence line.
Reports
from the Weather Channel,
from GFS model summaries, and from local observations indicated
strong southerly winds re-emerging over the region and gusting up to
40 mph. Fire officials have indicated that the new strong winds and
rising temperatures into the upper seventies (F) coupled with another
slot of dry air could re-ignite smoldering flames in the large fire
zone. As such, risks for continued burning and expansion of existing
fires was on the rise by mid Friday afternoon.
Links:
Hat
tip to DT Lange
Hat
tip to Kevin Jones
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