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"We knew there’d be trouble. We knew that human greenhouse gas emissions had loaded the world ocean up with heat. We knew that a record El Nino would blow a big chunk of that heat back into the atmosphere as it began to fade. And we knew that more global temperature records were on the way in late 2015 and early 2016. But I have to say that the early indications for February are just staggering."
The Roof is On Fire — Looks like February of 2016 Was 1.5 to 1.7 C Above 1880s Averages
3
March, 2016
Before
we go on to explore this most recent and most extreme instance in a
long string of record-shattering global temperatures,
we should take a moment to credit our climate change denier ‘friends’
for what’s happening in the Earth System.
For
decades now, a coalition of fossil fuel special interests, big money
investors, related think tanks, and the vast majority of the
republican party have fought
stridently to prevent effective action to mitigate the worst effects
of climate change.
In their mad quest, they have attacked science, demonized leaders,
gridlocked Congress, hobbled government, propped up failing fossil
fuels, prevented or dismantled helpful regulation, turned the Supreme
Court into a weapon against renewable energy solutions, and toppled
industries that would have helped to reduce the damage.
Through
these actions, they have been successful in preventing the necessary
and rapid shift away from fossil fuel burning, halting a burgeoning
American leadership in renewable energy, and in flooding the world
with the low-cost coal, oil, and gas that is now so destructive to
Earth System stability. Now, it appears that some of the more
dangerous impacts of climate change are already locked in. So when
history looks back and asks — why were we so stupid? We can
honestly point our fingers to those ignoramuses and say ‘here were
the infernal high priests who sacrificed a secure future and our
children’s safety on the alter of their foolish pride.’
Worst
Fears For Global Heating Realized
We
knew there’d be trouble. We knew that human greenhouse gas
emissions had loaded the world ocean up with heat. We knew that a
record El Nino would blow a big chunk of that heat back into the
atmosphere as it began to fade. And we knew that more global
temperature records were on the way in late 2015 and early 2016. But
I have to say that the early indications for February are just
staggering.
(The
GFS model shows temperatures averaged 1.01 C above the already
significantly hotter than normal 1981-2010 baseline. Subsequent
observations from separate sources have confirmed this dramatic
February temperature spike. We await NASA, NOAA, and JMA observations
for a final confirmation. But the trend in the data is amazingly
clear. What we’re looking at is the hottest global temperatures
since record keeping began by a long shot. Note that the highest
temperature anomalies appear exactly where we don’t want them —
the Arctic. Image source: GFS
and M. J. Ventrice.)
Eric
Holthaus and M. J. Ventrice on Monday were the first to give warning
of an extreme spike in temperatures as recorded by the Global
satellite record. A
slew of media reports followed.
But it wasn’t until today that we really began to get a clear look
at the potential atmospheric damage.
Nick
Stokes, a retired climate scientist and blogger over at
Moyhu, published
an analysis of the recently released preliminary data from NCAR and
the indicator is just absolutely off the charts high. According to
this analysis, February temperatures may have been as much as 1.44 C
hotter than the
1951 to 1980 NASA baseline.
Converting to departures from 1880s values, if these preliminary
estimates prove correct, would put the GISS figure at an extreme 1.66
C hotter than 1880s levels for February. If GISS runs 0.1 C cooler
than NCAR conversions, as it has over the past few months, then the
1880 to February 2016 temperature rise would be about 1.56 C. Both
are insanely high jumps that hint 2016 could be quite a bit warmer
than even 2015.
It’s
worth noting that much of these record high global temperatures are
centered on the Arctic — a region that is very sensitive to warming
and one that has the potential to produce a number of dangerous
amplifying feedbacks.
So we could well characterize an impending
record warm February as one in which much of the excess heat exploded
into the Arctic. In other words — the global temperature anomaly
graphs make it look like the world’s roof is on fire. That’s not
literal. Much of the Arctic remains below freezing. But 10-12 C above
average temperature anomalies for an entire month over large regions
of the Arctic is a big deal. It
means that large parts of the Arctic haven’t experienced anything
approaching a real Arctic Winter this year.
Looks
Like The 1.5 C Threshold Was Shattered in the Monthly Measure and We
May Be Looking at 1.2 to 1.3 C+ Above 1880s For all of 2016
Putting
these numbers into context, it looks like we may have already crossed
the 1.5 C threshold above 1880s values in the monthly measure during
February. This is entering a range of high risk for accelerating
Arctic sea ice and snow melt, albedo loss, permafrost thaw and a
number of other related amplifying feedbacks to a human-forced
heating of our world. A set of changes that will likely add to the
speed of an already rapid fossil fuel based warming. But we should be
very clear that monthly departures are not annual departures and the
yearly measure for 2016 is less likely to hit or exceed a 1.5 C
departure. It’s fair to say, though, that 1.5 C annual departures
are imminent and will likely appear within 5-20 years.
If
we use the 1997-1998 El Nino year as a baseline, we find that global
temperatures for that event peaked at around 1.1 C above 1880s
averages during February. The year, however, came in at about 0.85 C
above 1880s averages. Using a similar back of napkin analysis, and
assuming 2016 will continue to see Equatorial sea surface
temperatures continue to cool, we may be looking at a 1.2 to 1.3 C
above 1880s average for this year.
(El
Nino is cooling down. But will it continue to linger through 2016?
Climate Prediction Center CFSv2 model ensembles seem to think so. The
most recent run shows the current El Nino restrengthening through
Fall of 2016. Such an event would tend to push global annual
temperatures closer to the 1.5 C above 1880s threshold. It would also
set in place the outside potential for another record warm year in
2017. It’s worth noting that the NOAA consensus is still for ENSO
Neutral to weak La Nina conditions by Fall. Image source: NOAA’s
Climate Prediction Center.)
NOAA
is currently predicting that El Nino will transition to ENSO neutral
or a weak la Nina by year end. However, some model runs show that El
Nino never really ends for 2016. Instead, these models predict a weak
to moderate El Nino come Fall. In 1998, a strong La Nina began to
form — which would have helped to suppress atmospheric temperatures
by year-end. The 2016 forecast, however, does not seem to indicate
quite as much atmospheric cooling assistance coming from the world
ocean system. So end 2016 annual averages may push closer to 1.3 C
(or a bit higher) above 1880s levels.
We’ve
Had This Warming in the System for a While, It was Just Hiding Out in
the Oceans
One
other bit of context we should be very clear on is that the Earth
System has been living with the atmospheric heat we’re now seeing
for a while. The oceans began a very rapid accumulation of heat due
to greenhouse gas emissions forcing during the 2000s. A rate of heat
accumulation in the world’s waters that has accelerated through to
this year. This excess heat has already impacted the climate system
by speeding the destabilization of glaciers in the basal zone in
Greenland and Antarctica. And it has also contributed to new record
global sea ice losses and is a likely source of reports from the
world’s continental shelf zones that small but troubling clathrate
instabilities have been observed.
(Global
ocean heat accumulation has been on a high ramp since the late 1990s
with 50 percent of the total heat accumulation occurring in the 18
years from 1997 though 2015. Since more than 90 percent of the
greenhouse gas heat forcing ends up in the world ocean system, this
particular measure is probably the most accurate picture of a rapidly
warming world. Such a swift accumulation of heat in the world’s
oceans guaranteed that the atmosphere would eventually respond. The
real question now is — how fast and far? Image source: Nature.)
But
pushing up atmospheric heating will have numerous additional impacts.
It will put pressure on the surface regions of global glaciers —
adding to the basal melt pressure jump we’ve already seen. It will
further amplify the hydrological cycle — increasing the rates of
evaporation and precipitation around the world and amplifying extreme
droughts, wildfires and floods. It will increase peak global surface
temperatures — thereby increasing the incidence of heatwave mass
casualty events. It will provide more latent heat energy for storms —
continuing to push up the threshold of peak intensity for these
events. And it will help to accelerate the pace of regional changes
to climate systems such as weather instability in the North Atlantic
and increasing drought tendency in the US (especially the US
Southwest).
Entering
the Climate Change Danger Zone
The
1-2 C above 1880s temperatures range we are now entering is one in
which dangerous climate changes will tend to grow more rapid and
apparent. Such atmospheric heat has not been experienced on Earth in
at least 150,000 years and the world then was a much different place
than what human beings were used to in the 20th Century. However, the
speed at which global temperatures are rising is much more rapid than
anything seen during any interglacial period for the last 3 million
years and is probably even more rapid than the warming seen during
hothouse extinction events like the PETM and the Permian. This
velocity of warming will almost certainly have added effects outside
of the paleoclimate context.
(Anyone
looking at the temperature anomaly graph on the top of this post can
see that a disproportionate amount of the global temperature anomaly
is showing up in the Arctic. But the region of the High North above
the 80 degree Latitude line is among the regions experiencing global
peak anomalies. There, degree days below freezing are at the lowest
levels ever recorded — now hitting a -800 anomaly in the Arctic
record. In plain terms — the less degree days below freezing the
High Arctic experiences, the closer it is to melting. Image
source: CIRES/NOAA.)
One
final point to be clear on is then worth repeating. We, by listening
to climate change deniers and letting them gum up the political and
economic works, have probably already locked in some of the bad
effects of climate change that could have been prevented. The time
for pandering to these very foolish people is over. The time for
foot-dragging and half-measures is now at an end. We need a very
rapid response. A response that, at this point, is still being
delayed by the fossil fuel industry and the climate change deniers
who have abetted their belligerence.
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