As Zero Hedge says "so far, so good"
"Let's
Pray This Works": Syria "Ceasefire" Begins After
Russia Takes "Total Control" Of Country
27
February, 2016
Last
Monday, Washington and Moscow hailed an agreement that would see a
temporary cessation of hostilities in Syria.
The
“ceasefire” went into effect on Saturday and so far, so good.
“Clashes and airstrikes across western Syria largely abated
Saturday morning, as an internationally backed truce took hold in
parts of the country where rebels have been fighting the regime,” WSJ
reported this
morning. Although the SAA apparently hit a few rebel positions east
of Damascus, overall, “it was a calm morning.”
Russia
said it would halt all flights over the country for the first 24
hours to avoid “mistakes” in targeting. "Given the entry
into force of the U.N. Security Council resolution that supports the
Russian-American agreements on a ceasefire, and to
avoid any possible mistakes when carrying out strikes, Russian
military planes, including long-range aviation, are not carrying out
any flights over Syrian territory on Feb. 27,"
the Defense Ministry said.
By
“mistakes” Moscow means hitting anyone other than al-Nusra or
ISIS, who are not included in the agreement. Rebels, not to mention
analysts, have argued that Russia and Hezbollah will be able to use
al-Nusra as an excuse to continue the offensive against anti-Assad
elements. While the ISIS presence is concentrated in eastern Syria,
al-Nusra has positions in Aleppo City, the Jabal Turkman region of
Northeastern Latakia, the Jabal Zawiya region in Southern Idlib
Province, and the Quneitra Province along the Golan Heights. Just to
name a few. That effectively means Russia can bomb anywhere along the
country’s urban backbone in the west and claim to be targeting the
group, which, you’re reminded, is an offshoot of al-Qaeda.
(a
captured ISIS fighter lets you know "who's number one")
The
other important thing to note about the ceasefire is that Russia and
Hezbollah were within a month or so of declaring victory when the
deal was struck. The Iranians and Hassan Nasrallah had surrounded
Aleppo and the YPG were about to cut off the Azaz corridor, the last
remaining supply line from Turkey. Backed by Russian airstrikes, the
Hezbollah offensive was racking up gains and it was just a matter of
time before Aleppo city was recaptured by forces loyal to Assad.
That
meant Russia was negotiating from a position of strength. “We
are totally in control of the situation in all of the territory of
Syria,”
Sergei Rudskoi, head of the main operations directorate of the
general staff said today.
The
rebels echoed that sentiment in the days leading up to the ceasefire.
Russia pounded anti-Assad positions all week in an apparent effort to
cement gains and ensure the rebels loses are devastating enough that
they can’t use the lull in fighting to regroup.
"We
are heading toward being liquidated I think,"
a former official in a rebel group from Aleppo told Reuters.
In
other words, Russia and Iran have the rebels feeling like HY fund
managers in a junk bond rout and the opposition is essentially
finished.
(women
walk amongst the ruins of a town in Hasaka)
Some
rebel commanders say the Syrian army (or whatever is left of it)
isn’t abiding by the truce. “In early reports of violence, a
Syrian rebel group in the northwest said three of its fighters had
been killed while repelling an attack from government ground forces a
few hours after the plan came into effect,” Reuters
reports.
“There are areas where the bombardment has stopped but there are
areas where there are violations by the regime such as Kafr Zeita in
Hama, via targeting with artillery, and likewise in Morek in northern
Hama countryside,” Fursan al-Haqq chief Fares Bayoush said on
Saturday.
Importantly,
it's not entirely clear what this is supposed to accomplish. "Let's
pray that this works because frankly this is the best opportunity we
can imagine the Syrian people has had for the last five years in
order to see something better and hopefully something related to
peace," U.N.
Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura said at a midnight news conference in
Geneva.
While
any day that innocent people aren't dying (or at least are
dying less,
because six people were killed in a suicide attack in Hama and three
children died in Deir al-Zor in an "unspecified" attack) is
a good day in Syria, this seems to be a road to nowhere. Aleppo is
surrounded. There's no chance of the rebels rallying here. They'll
either have to eventually surrender or they'll ultimately be starved
out or overrun. There's no chance whatsoever that Assad is going give
back the territory captured over the last two months.
(a
fighter from Islamist Failaq al-Rahman holds his weapon on
Friday in Ghouta, the late Zahran Alloush's stronghold)
What
seems likely is this: it would appear that this may be the prelude to
what will amount to a negotiated surrender. If Russia can build up
some goodwill with the rebels over the next week or so and if the
Assad government can demonstrate a willingness to focus its attacks
on "the terrorists" rather than the FSA, then perhaps the
rebellion will be willing to accept defeat in exchange for some kind
of seat at the table in a new government.
Make
no mistake, this is farcical. As long as Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah
overtly back Assad and the Saudis and Turks are unwilling to provide
the same level of support for the rebels, there are only two possible
outcomes here: 1) the ceasefire collapses, Russia and Hezbollah
overrun Aleppo, the rebellion goes the way of the dinosaurs, or 2) by
some miracle (Allahu akbar) the rebels decide to lay down their guns
in exchange for what will be billed as representation in a
restructured government. But if you think that representation will be
anything other than symbolic, and if you think Bashar al-Assad and
the Alawites are going to establish some kind of democratic oasis in
the Mid-East after seeing their country gutted by militants, you're
sorely mistaken.
If
anything, the last five years underscore Assad's cold, yet pragmatic
assessment of his country's political prospects: "We do not
claim that we did not make mistakes in Syria.
And we do not claim that we, in the Middle East, have reached a stage
of significant political openness.
We
were moving in that direction, not very quickly, and maybe slowly."
The
implication there is simple: the region isn't ready for democracy and
when you remove a Mid-East autocrat, you risk creating anarchy.
Russia stops all Syria airstrikes on areas & armed groups included in ceasefire - General Staff
RT,
27
February, 2016
Russia’s
military have stopped all airstrikes on those areas and armed groups
which joined the ceasefire in Syria, the General Staff has said at a
briefing.
"Russia
has fully stopped carrying out airstrikes in the green zone - those
areas and armed units that have sent us requests for a ceasefire,"
the chief of the main operations department of the Russian General
Staff, Sergey Rudskoy, has told reporters.
The
Syrian army and 17 armed units have pledged to abide by the
ceasefire, he added.
“On
February 23, the Syrian army declared that they have agreed to stop
military action, in accordance with the US-Russia deal. Seventeen
armed units addressed the command of the Khmeimim air base, and
signed the application sheets, also pledging to respect the
ceasefire,” Rudskoy said.
Seventy
Russian drones will be monitoring the ceasefire, it's been announced.
‘Hotlines’
have been created to ensure the quick exchange of information between
the Russian ceasefire coordinating center in Khmeimim, Syria and the
US one in Amman, Jordan.
“To
provide help in ensuring peace in Syria, the ceasefire center was set
up at the Khmeimim air base. Sixty-one Russian officers work there,
and its main goals are to help seal the special ceasefire deals, and
to sustain ceasefire with the armed groups’ leaders, and to deliver
humanitarian aid to the population,” Lieutenant-General Sergey
Kuralenko, the head of Russia’s ceasefire headquarters in Khmeimim,
told the briefing.
Recently,
the Khmeimim ceasefire center received 169 phone calls and e-mails.
Fighting
has stopped in 34 residential areas, the Defense Ministry confirmed.
Минобороны России
The
Russian Defense Ministry has also provided the US military with its
current situation map in Syria.
“To
exchange information with US colleagues, we’ve developed a map of
the situation on the ground in Syria, and this map has been given to
the US side during bilateral consultations on February 26, and also
via military and diplomatic channels. On this map, one can see the
regions where the peace process is on, and also the areas controlled
by IS, Al-Nusra, or other armed groups,” Rudskoy said.
Syria ceasefire takes effect, terrorist groups excluded
Meanwhile these are the headlines from the war-mongering Guardian. Judging by the position on their website they have little interest in peace (even a temporary ceasefire) if they can't blame Putin and the Russians.
Syrian ceasefire begins but US expecting violations
Complex
ceasefire deal agreed by Russia and US, which excludes large areas of
country, began at midnight local time
A
fragile, temporary and partial cessation of hostilities has come into
force in Syria after 97 fighting groups, as well as the Syrian
government and Russian air force, signed up to a ceasefire.
A
monitoring group said early on Saturday that fighting appeared to
have stopped across most of western Syria, although the country’s
state news agency said a car bomb had exploded on the edge of a
government-held central town of Salamiyeh, killing two and wounding
several others. No one claimed responsibility.
A
senior Russian official said it had grounded its warplanes in Syria
and established hotlines to exchange information with the US military
in order to help monitor the ceasefire.
A
Syrian rebel group called First Coastal Division in the country’s
northwest said it came under attack from government ground forces at
4am local time (0200 GMT), leaving three fighters dead in what it
called a breach of the truce.
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