What comes to mind as I confront today's news is that al-Nimr's execution, Saudi Arabia's provocation, will perform the same role as the assasination of Archduke Ferdinand in Serbia n1914.
It may light the powder keg.
Saudi execution aimed at provoking regional bloodbath
Finian
Cunningham
Protesters
hold placards as they demonstrate against the execution of prominent
Shi'ite cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr outside the Saudi Arabian Embassy
in London, Britain January 2, 2016 © Neil Hall / Reuters
The
furious reaction across the Middle East to the Saudi execution of a
prominent Shiite cleric strongly suggests that the killing is a
deliberate provocation by the ruling House of Saud.
That
provocation would appear to be aimed at inflaming sectarian tensions
and fomenting conflict in various regional countries – already near
flashpoint – in order to further Saudi geopolitical interests.
Central to those interests is, as always, the bitter rivalry with the
region’s Shiite powerhouse, Iran.
Following
the announcement at the weekend by the Saudi Interior Ministry that
Shiite cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr had been executed, along with 46
other prisoners, there was predictable
outrage from
across the region, especially among countries where there is a large
Shiite following, such as Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Bahrain. Iran
denounced the radical Sunni Saudi rulers as “criminal” and
accused them of carrying out an act that is “the
depth of imprudence and irresponsibility.”
Iran’s
Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, compared the
House of Saud with Daesh, the extremist terror group (also known as
Islamic State, and previously ISIS/ISIL). Of note is the way that the
kingdom executes opponents by beheading according to a similar
stringent interpretation of Islamic Sharia law known as Wahhabism –
shared by both the Saudi regime and the cadres of Dash.
RT
BREAKING: Molotovs thrown at #Saudi embassy in #Tehran during protest over #Nimr execution http://on.rt.com/70wb
Former
Iraqi Prime Minster Nouri al-Maliki said that
the imposition of capital punishment would lead to the downfall of
the Saudi rulers, with other Iraqi politicians saying that it would
“open
the gates of hell”
across the volatile and religiously fraught region.
The
United States and European Union also responded with alarm at the
execution of al-Nimr, both warning of deepening sectarian tensions
being exacerbated by the Saudi death penalty.
Sheikh
al-Nimr was executed on Saturday, along with 46 other prisoners in
what is believed to have been the biggest mass execution in Saudi
Arabia for over three decades. The death sentences were carried out
in 12 prison locations by decapitation or firing squad, according
to reports.
Most of those sentenced were alleged members of the Al-Qaeda terror
group, who had been accused of carrying out deadly attacks against
Western interests in Saudi Arabia between 2003 and 2006.
Nimr
al-Nimr was among four Shiite activists who were executed at the
weekend. They were convicted on several charges of subversion and
terrorism in trials that were dismissed by international rights
groups as a travesty of judicial process. Sheikh al-Nimr was arrested
in 2012 and accused of inciting violent protests, but supporters
point out that the respected cleric always publicly endorsed peaceful
protest. One of his best-known statements was: “The
power of the word is mightier than the roar of bullets.”
In
October, al-Nimr lost a judicial appeal against his death sentence.
There then followed several international appeals for clemency. The
Iranian government in particular issued several statements calling
for the cleric’s life to be spared.
The
widely seen miscarriage of justice against al-Nimr and the chilling
determination to carry out his execution in spite of appeals for
clemency is what makes the case so incendiary.
Lebanese
Shiite resistance movement Hezbollah condemned Saudi
Arabia’s conduct as “an
assassination,”
while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps vowed that the Saudi rulers
would meet with “harsh
vengeance.”
Protesters
holding a banner saying "Death is normal to us and our dignity
from God is martyrdom" take part in a protest against the
execution of Saudi Shi'ite cleric Nimr al-Nimr by Saudi authorities,
in the village of Sanabis, west of Manama, Bahrain January 2, 2016 ©
Hamad I Mohammed / Reuters
In
Yemen, where Saudi Arabia and a coalition of other Sunni Arab states
have been carrying out airstrikes for the past nine months, the
mainly Shiite Houthi rebels also condemned the execution of al-Nimr
and promised retribution for his death. At the weekend, it was
reported that 24 Saudi troops were killed in a Houthi rocket attack
on the Saudi border province of Jizan. It is not clear if the attack
preceded the announced execution of al-Nimr.
The
Saudi regime has previously accused Iran and Hezbollah of fueling the
Houthi rebellion in Yemen. Tehran has rejected claims of militarily
supporting the insurgents. But it would be a fair assumption that
Iran and Hezbollah will henceforth step up military intervention in
Yemen as a way of striking back at the Saudis.
The
same response is envisaged for Iranian and Hezbollah involvement in
Syria, where the Saudis have bankrolled and armed various
anti-government militia, primarily so-called radical Islamist groups
with a shared Wahhabi fundamentalist ideology. These groups include
Jaish al Islam (Army of Islam), whose leader Zahran Alloush was
killed in a Syrian airstrike near Damascus on December 25. The Saudi
regime publicly rebuked the killing of Alloush, saying that it
jeopardized the forthcoming UN-sponsored peace talks in Geneva on
Syria.
The
House of Saud, led by King Salman, is known to be not in favor of the
Geneva talks, which Washington and Moscow have both endorsed. The
Saudis are dismayed by the seeming compromise made by Washington
towards the Russian position, which is that the political future of
Syria must be decided by the Syrian people through elections. The
erstwhile demand by Washington that Syria’s President Bashar Assad
must stand down as a precondition for peace talks has been abandoned
– leaving the Saudis, Turkey and the extremist militia groups in
Syria as the only parties persisting with the call for Assad to go.
It
is perhaps significant that Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan held a
“strategic summit” with Saudi King Salman in Riyadh only days
before the execution of Nimr al-Nimr.
Russia’s
military intervention in Syria, from the end of September, has been a
resounding success in terms of stabilizing the Syrian government of
Bashar Assad. Even the Obama administration has recently acknowledged
the strategic success for Russian President Vladimir Putin in Syria.
That
military success can also be attributed to Iran and Hezbollah, as
well as to Iraq, which have all contributed to the gains made by the
Syrian Arab Army on the ground.
The
biggest loser is the axis for covert regime change in Syria, led by
Washington, London and Paris, together with their regional allies in
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. While Washington and the other
Western powers have the nous to switch tactics from backing a covert
insurgency to belatedly trying a political process for eventual
regime change in Syria, it would appear that the Saudis and Turks are
still committed to the covert war agenda.
In
that way, the Russian-backed military alliance in Syria is a
particularly damaging broadside to Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
From
the Saudi point of view, one way of trying to salvage their losses in
Syria and ongoing setbacks in Yemen would be to blow up the region
with an explosion in sectarian conflicts. For many people, of course,
such a gambit is insane. But if the House of Saud can provoke a
firestorm between Sunnis and Shiites, that would in turn polarize
relations between Washington and Moscow, leading to a wider war
across the region.
Having
lost in their Machiavellian schemes for regime change in Syria, the
House of Saud seems to want to inflict a plague of chaos and
bloodshed on everyone else’s house.
The
execution of renowned Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr is such a gratuitous
barbaric killing, one is left with the conclusion: the unadulterated
madness of the slaying betrays an altogether pathological calculation
aimed at inciting mayhem in the region.
Saudi
Arabia is on such a losing streak over Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon
and elsewhere that its autocratic rulers probably figure that they
don’t have much else to lose by going for broke – and thus
provoking a regional bloodbath.
Finian
Cunningham (born 1963) has written extensively on international
affairs, with articles published in several languages. Originally
from Belfast, Northern Ireland, he is a Master’s graduate in
Agricultural Chemistry and worked as a scientific editor for the
Royal Society of Chemistry, Cambridge, England, before pursuing a
career in newspaper journalism. For over 20 years he worked as an
editor and writer in major news media organizations, including The
Mirror, Irish Times and Independent. Now a freelance journalist based
in East Africa, his columns appear on RT, Sputnik, Strategic Culture
Foundation and Press TV
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