News from COP21

Incredibly bad news from Copout 21 but not unexpected.

"Bad news and good news reports from the AMEG team at the COP21 Climate Conference in Paris."

"Bad news and good news reports from the AMEG team at the COP21 Climate Conference in Paris.

The Arctic Methane Emergency Group, AMEG, that I work with is attending COP21 and has several scientists and filmmakers there trying to get our message about the dire Arctic situation heard among the cacophony of competing messages. We have been creating strategies and presentations for weeks especially in preparation for a meeting with Sir David King, UK Foreign Secretary’s Special Representative for Climate Change and former UK Government Chief Scientist. I have been Skpying with chairman John Nissen every night in London for several hours honing our message and developing our strategy. Well, today John had a telephone call with Sir David and kept him engaged for over forty minutes educating him on the dire situation in the Arctic. Reaching the chief scientific adviser to Her Majesty's Governments was a successful goal for us in educating the powers that be of the reality of the climate change catastrophe bearing down on us.

Then the reports started coming in from our colleagues in Paris as to what is actually happening and the news is very discouraging. Paul Beckwith captured a video of Ex- NASA and top climate scientist Jim Hansen expressing his deep frustration that the representatives at COP21 are focusing on the wrong issues, they are trying to set unrealistic and impossible goals and he says speeches like Obama's are filled with "total bullshit."

Peter Wadhams, arguably the worlds top Arctic expert and one of the founders of AMEG was to give a presentation at Saturday's ICE-ARC conference discussing the situation in the Artic but was replaced by Sir David King who will instead deliver a more "politically correct" presentation and not rock the boat. As Peter commented to us in an email today "the huge circus of meetings and the actual Machiavellian proceedings are going on behind closed doors as the real delegates try to put together some face-saving formula that will enable them to do nothing, declare success, and go home. "

It is becoming apparent that the world leaders are not as informed about the dire climate situation as we once thought. It appears that they are being shielded from the truth by underlings who are being influenced by opposition forces or are just in to much fear of losing their jobs to present the truth. Either way, as Hansen says, Obama is just not aware of the real truth. Hansen, the top climate scientist in the world has been trying to get a meeting or a message to Obama and has been thwarted at every turn. For our dedicated scientists who only want the world to know the truth. It has been a frustrating experience.

So, as of Wednesday the 2nd, things are not looking promising for any meaningful new coming out of COP21 in Paris.

Keith Nealy Communications Consulting
Climate Change Risk Analysis
Arctic Methane Emergency Group, AMEG

PRESS RELEASE by the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, AMEG
November 2015

Transforming to a safer world

COP-21 is ignoring huge danger

COP-21 will not save humanity from catastrophic climate change and metres of sea level rise, if they continue to rely on IPCC assessments.

The world expects IPCC to ensure the safety of future generations, by producing realistic assessments of the dangers from climate change and by giving good advice to governments on how to deal with these dangers and prevent catastrophe. But IPCC has absolutely failed in their obligation, under UNFCCC Article 2, to give adequate warning of the planetary emergency resulting from past and continued anthropogenic interference on two counts: excess CO2 in the atmosphere; and an Arctic soon to become seasonally free of sea ice.
Removing excess CO2

IPCC have consistently understated the dangers from global warming and ocean acidification arising from excess CO2 in the atmosphere. A safe, sustainable target level for CO2 concentration has not been established, as required by UNFCCC Article 2; and other constraints, such as a limit on ocean acidification, rate of sea level rise and Arctic warming, have not been established either.

It is cogently argued by leading climate expert, Professor James Hansen, that the limit for CO2 should be set at 350 ppm or below. It will require a massive effort in carbon dioxide removal to achieve this level within a few decades. A similar limit on CO2 is required to avoid excessive ocean acidification, which, in combination with global warming, is already causing coral reefs to die. By ignoring the dangers of ocean acidification, the whole marine food chain has been put at risk.

IPCC has set a carbon budget of around 1000 gigatons of carbon for total allowed CO2 emissions, of which they say about half has been spent, leaving a remaining budget of less than 500 gigatons to achieve the 2 degrees target. But other greenhouse gases together add 75% to the climate forcing from CO2. This means that the CO2eq level is around 490 ppm. If allowance is also made for climate forcing from black carbon and albedo loss, then it appears that the budget has already been used up. The IPCC has failed to do the necessary calculations to establish the real position on carbon budget and what has to be achieved to have a good chance of preventing dangerous interference with the climate system, as UNFCCC require IPCC to establish.

Emissions reduction by itself will not remove CO2 from the atmosphere. While focussing on emissions reduction IPCC have been ignoring the urgency and immensity of the task to remove excess CO2 from the atmosphere, which will require a revolution in agriculture, forestry and marine management to put carbon in the ground and improve food production at the same time. Any delay in getting started on these revolutions will increase the risk of disaster in decades to come.
 

It is proposed that the funding of the CO2 removal initiative should come from a carbon levy on fossil fuel producers. This would provide justice, in that the people who benefit from taking carbon out of the ground would be paying for the carbon to be returned to the ground. The levy would be ramped up until the CO2 level starts to fall towards the target 350 ppm.

Preventing the Arctic Ocean becoming seasonally free of sea ice

 
But, more serious still than the problem of excess CO2, IPCC has failed to acknowledge the dangers arising from rapid Arctic warming and the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice. The Arctic Ocean could become seasonally free of sea ice within a few years. This rapid decline is the real “elephant in the room”. The sea ice has provided a reflective surface to keep the Arctic cool, maintain permafrost and stabilise our planet’s temperature, sea level and climate. Now the sea ice is declining to a much lower level, and IPCC is ignoring the implications.

Because of this glaring omission from IPCC reports, it may soon be too late to prevent the Arctic getting locked into a state of low sea ice and rapid warming, from which there will be no escape. Continued rapid warming will inevitably lead to several absolute catastrophes for the world:

· accelerated meltdown of the Greenland Ice Sheet to give metres of sea level rise within decades; 

· accelerated meltdown of permafrost, releasing vast quantities of the potent greenhouse gas, methane, which both accelerates the Arctic warming in a positive feedback loop and counters attempts to limit global warming to a safe level;

· destabilisation of the planet’s climate system, giving ever worse weather extremes compounded by global warming and El Niño events.

Conclusion 

In brief, humanity faces a planetary emergency from precipitous decline of Arctic sea ice as well as from an excess of CO2 in the atmosphere. COP-21 must now prepare to take the necessary interventions. 

Our condemnation of IPCC assessment reports is not idle speculation or doom-mongering but based on the best available scientific evidence. There now has to be a strenuous, focused and determined effort to find solutions to these problems and make the necessary interventions. Of particular urgency, the Arctic has to be cooled such as to prevent further decline of sea ice. This is a significant engineering challenge. Any delay risks the passing of a point of no return, whereby the challenge becomes impossible. 

By facing up to the truth of the situation, means can surely be found to avoid catastrophe, using mankind’s collective intelligence, technology and vast resources. 

All nations must now work together to stave off the huge threats facing our civilisation. 

Submitted on behalf of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, 5 November 2015 
By John Nissen, chair AMEG (www.ameg.me

)
Email: johnnissen2003@gmail.com"