The NATO destruction of the RuAF SU-24 Fencer and Turkish murder of the Russian servicemen
25
November, 2015
Russia’s
Interdiction of ISIS-Turkey Oil Trade and Attacks on Turkmen jihadi
militants Poses Risk of Enlargement of Syrian Conflict
UPDATED
By:
JiminNH
The
increasing velocity of events in Syria indicates that the conflict
may be ready to spill over into a larger conflagration and direct
conflict between the forces of the AZ hegemon and the Resistance
thereto. A couple of apparently un-related events have rapidly
coalesced into armed conflict between an NATO member state and
Russia, the consequences of which are yet to be revealed, but
unlikely to be anything but more fuel on the fires of the not only
the Syrian conflict but the war between the AZ empire and Russia.
Follow
the Oil:
Followers
of this blog are undoubtedly aware that Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin
was outspoken in his comments at a post G-20 press conference on Nov.
16th regarding not only direct aid and support to ISIS by Western
allied G-20 member states, but also the nature of those same Western
allies who aid ISIS in the transshipment and sale of contraband ISIS
oil.
The
western “free press” has still yet to report on that presser
wherein Pres. Putin stated that he provided evidence of “our data
on the financing of Islamic State units by natural persons in various
countries. The financing comes from 40 countries, as we established,
including some G20 members”, and further where he told of providing
imagery and intelligence data that shows the massive oil tanker truck
convoys that ship oil from ISIS controlled territory, in his words
“convoys stretching for dozens of kilometers, going beyond the
horizon when seen from a height of four-five thousand
meters”.Source:
Readers
to this blog are also probably aware of the deep ties between Turkish
Pres. Erdogan and the various Wahhibi and Salafist groups in Syria,
to specifically include Turkish collusion with ISIS in both military
support as well as financial support. That financial involvement
includes claims that Bilal Erdogan, the son of Turkish Pres. Recip
Tayyep Erdogan, is the principal conduit of the transshipment and
sale of contraband ISIS oil supplies, and that his company BMZ Ltd.
owns and operates both the tanker trucks that send ISIS’s
ill-begotten oil to Turkey, and from their onto Ceylan where it is
sold on the world markets. BMZ also owns oil tanker ships that then
transport the oil to end destinations, in EU markets, Japan and,
reportedly, Israel.Source:
In
recent weeks, Russia
has been straightforward in reporting its attacks on ISIS’s
financial lifeline,i.e.
the sale of oil. RuAF bombers and cruise missiles have attacked both
oil infrastructure (tanks and transshipment points), as well as the
fleet of oil tanker trucks that transship said oil to Turkey.
Sources: RT
and ZeroHedge
Of
course, it is only “coincidental” that the USAF-led “coalition”
that has been putatively bombing ISIS for over 16 months failed to
hit a single one of those convoys until literally hours after Putin’s
as-yet unreported press conference.Source:
Russia’s
air war against the financial aid rendered to ISIS by Turkey and its
western allies through the illicit and eminently illegal sale of
stolen Syrian (and Iraqi) oil by ISIS through Turkey poses a dire
threat to ISIS, as well as causes a catastrophic loss to Erdogan’s
family business empire.
Russian
Air Operations against Turkmen Militiants in Northen Latakia Province
In
another sequence of event, Russia’s air expeditionary wing has been
engaged in close air support and other air operations targeting the
anti-Assad jihadi militias, including the al Qaeda/al Nusra
affiliated“Turkmen
Brigade”,
in the northern Latakia province of Syria. In response to those
punitive air operations, the Turkmen militants openly called out for
help from Turkey against the RuAF.
An article was posted on the Turkish newspaper Todays Zaman regarding
the plea for help, in an article headlined:“Syrian
Turkmens ask for Turkey’s help under heavy bombardment by Assad,
Russia”
Also
days ago, Turkish
P.M. Davutoglu warned
Russia about bombing the same ethnic Turkmen militias in Latakia
province.
Confluence
of Events Leads to Direct Conflict
It
appears that Davutoglu is a man of his word. These two events have
coalesced into an incident whereby Turkish F-16 fighters have
apparently shot down the RuAF SU-24 Fender bomber in Syrian airspace,
with the pilot and navigator ejecting over Syrian territory. Reports
indicate that the Turkmen militants exacted typical jihadi vengeance
against the RuAF crewmembers by killing them while parachuting to the
ground and/or on the ground. Reports also indicate that a RuAF search
and rescue helicopted was likewise attacked by militants, the results
of which are not known to this author at the moment.
Russian
Pres. Putin has clearly articulated his viewpoint that Russia has
been “stabbed in the back delivered by the accomplices to
terrorists.” He stated emphatically that the Russian plane posed no
threat to Turkey, and that it was operating solely in Syrian airspace
against “terrorists” The implication is clear – he just called
NATO member Turkey an accomplice to terror, not to mention the killer
of two Russian servicemen. While there will undoubtedly be a duel of
radar tracking to show whether or not the Fencer violated Turkish
airspace, as claimed by Davutoglu, the reality is that a NATO jet
just shot down the first Russian aircraft since the formation of the
NATO alliance, an operation conducted in support of Turkmen jihadi’s
and likely in revenge for Russia’s destruction of the ISIS/Erdogan
Oil company.
Likely
Outcome:
From
this moment forward, we can expect that NATO will provide 100%
support for the Turkish claims of the Fencer violating Turkish
airspace. After all, since readers to this blog are fully aware that
the multiplicity of Wahhabi and Salafist jihadi militants in Syria
are but proxy armies for the AZ empire, and its armed forces in the
form of NATO militaries, such an outcome is only to be expected.
The
real question is what can we expect to be Russia’s response. Beyond
FM Lavrov cancelling his scheduled meeting with Turkey, and his call
for Russian citizens to boycott Turkey’s tourist destinations, we
can fully expect Russia to respond in the military domain.
The
respons is likely to be in multiple domains. Reports have already
emerged that the Russian naval flotilla off Syria will provide
heightened air defense coverage, likely moving naval assets closer to
the Turkish/Syrian border.
In
the air, at a minimum we coud anticipate that Russia will enhance its
fighter cover in support of CAS (close air support) operations near
the Turkish border. To accomplish that feat, it is likely that Russia
will need to enlarge its air expeditionary wing in Syria with more
advanced air-to-air combat fighters.
Russia
may well enhance its air-to-air fighter assets in an effort to close
of Syrian airspace to Turkish fighter/bombers, which have repeatedly
violated Syrian sovereign airspace in operations putatively directed
against the Kurds, but likely directed against the Syrian Arab Army
and other Syrian assets in the “undeclared” war on the Syrian
Arab Republic.
Another
likely result is that Russia will formally recognize that reports of
the presence of the S-400 SAM system is present in Syria, and that it
will be employed in defense of Russian air operations over northern
Syria. I would also anticipate that such surface to air missile
coverage, perhaps the more mobile Sa-22 Pantsir SAM system, will be
moved as far north in the Latakia province as possible to provide
more timely protection to RuAF CAS operations.
If
so, we will undoubtedly read of Russian SAM operators “lighting up”
Turkish and other NATO jets operating in the border region, locking
onto those targets with firing solutions in case those SAMS are
actually deployed to prevent another shootdown of a Russian plane or
to take down the plane(s) that engage in such an attack in the
future.
Finally,
other unconventional means of protecting airborne assets, such as
electronic warfare operations conducted by the fleet, by airborne
assets and/or ground based EW systems could well be used to shield
and protect the bomber forces. The inherent risk of significant use
of EW assets, however, would be that NATO could discover previously
unknown Russian capabilities in that crucial domain and have a “head
start” on developing EW countermeasures for the likely next phase
of the AZ war on Russia.
The
key question is whether this unjustified attack on the RuAF plane
operating in Syrian airspace will be the incident that causes Russia
to provide additional support to its air operations in support of
Syrian sovereign rights of self defense in the form of introduction
of ground forces. Such ground forces could now justifiably be
deployed directly along the Syrian-Turkish border, at a minimum
against the Turkmen Brigade which just butchered two RuAF servicemen,
but perhaps more expansively along larger swaths of the open border
and thereby help close off not only the NATO-ISIS arms supply lines
(the reporting of which cost Serena Shim her life) but also the
Erdogan family’s illicit enterprise of shipping and selling ISIS
oil supplies in western oil markets.
Whatever
the case, the gloves appear to be coming off, and those who back the
terrorists in Syria, NATO member Turkey among them along with the AZ
empire’s GCC allies of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, are increasingly
easy to discern. The question is whether Turkey’s “throwing down
the gauntlet” and challenging Russia’s air operations will be the
trigger event for more conflict, or perhaps the warning shot that
makes all parties realize the heightened risks of global conflict
that the neo-Ottoman Caliph Erdogan attack against the Russian Air
Force just engendered.
Respectfully
submitted by JiminNH
JiminNH is
a USAF veteran who resides in NH. The motto “Live
Free or Die”
on the license plate should not be just a quaint historical relic of
a once great constitutional republic
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