This is our first, not totallly successful attempt at recording a Skype conversation. Not yet being able to edit (and the first part interrrupted by the phone) I have divided the conversation into two parts
Part one
Kevin
Hester and Seemorerocks discuss abrupt climate change
Part one
Part two
First off one has to understand how Jet Streams are formed. So for educational purposes I'll post this link.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.weatherquestions.com/What_causes_the_jet_stream.htm
Now as for how Global Warming is affecting the Jet Streams, it has to do with the warming of the polar regions.
ReplyDeleteWe know that the polar regions are warming faster than any other part of the planet. This is where the cold air masses come from.
As they warm the difference in temperature between the cold air mass and the warm (tropical) air mass lessens causing the formation of slower Jet Streams.
These slower Jet Streams will meander more and cause large looping patterns in the Atmosphere. In the Northern Hemisphere they will drag colder air masses further south and warm air masses further north. The jet streams form where weather patterns form.
If you ever watch a weather forecast, the meteorologist will show the jet stream before showing the actual weather systems.
Sometimes there will be circular jet streams forming within these loops. These circular patterns are called weather blocks. Named for the fact that they are slow moving and will stall the weather systems in place.
An example of this is the Polar Vortex.
I made an observation about a year ago where I hypothesized what may happen if the jet streams in the northern hemisphere travelled too far south and the jet streams in the southern hemisphere travelled too far north. I asked Michael Mann for his opinion. I wanted to know if the jet streams could merge.
He told me that because of the way the weather systems work, a merging of the jet streams was impossible. The equatorial region was acting as a buffer where no jet streams have ever ventured.
At the time I was monitoring the jet streams using the following link, http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-68.97,-5.00,289
This link shows an interactive map of the world where you can adjust your viewing of atmospheric and ocean conditions. By clicking on the Earth icon in the lower left you can adjust the settings. Currently the settings show the jet streams.
The map is updated regularly so you can see the current conditions at any given time.
As you can see, the jet streams are doing what Michael Mann had called impossible.
They are crossing the equator and merging.
This changes the whole weather picture now.
Conventional weather systems can no longer work as they normally would. It causes systems such as the El Nino/La Nina to behave differently.
Instead of an El Nino bringing warm waters to the Panama region, it is instead bringing warm waters into the northern Pacific region (The Warm Blob).
This is causing the waters in the polar regions to warm even more which in turn warms the atmosphere and further worsens the jet streams. Essentially creating another feedback loop.