Extreme weather update - 07/02/2015

Have you noticed something about the western media? 

When there's a heat wave in India or Pakistan they show people suffering in the heat. When in happens in the West they show people lounging in deckchairs by the beach although, as we know from precedent, many people will die from this heat wave.

A shruggie-shaped heat wave is roasting England, France and Spain

Mashable,

2 July, 2015

UPDATED Thursday 9:00 a.m ET: The European heat wave has spread to Belgium and the Netherlands, as well as Germany, where Dusseldorf's temperature of 36.1 degrees Celsius, or 97 degrees Fahrenheit, as of 8:30 a.m. ET was almost 22 degrees Celsius (40 degrees Fahrenheit) above average for this time of year.

Meanwhile, the heat is temporarily abating on Friday in parts of Spain, France and the UK, but the hot weather will come roaring back over the weekend, with high temperatures once again in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees Celsius in Paris on Friday, and only slightly cooler on Saturday.

Unusually mild conditions will also affect Sweden, Norway and Finland on Thursday through the weekend.

Government officials in several countries, including France, have been warning citizens of the dangers of prolonged heat exposure. Europe has a history of deadly heat events, with a tragic 2003 heat wave resulting in between 40,000 and 70,000 fatalities, depending on the definition of a heat-related death.

A weather pattern that resembles an atmospheric version of the shruggie — ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ — is directing furnace-like heat toward Spain, France and England on Wednesday, with high temperatures near 40 degrees Celsius, or 104 degrees Fahrenheit, as far north as Paris.

The heat wave is also affecting southern parts of England, with temperatures in the upper 30s Celsius, or mid-to-high 90s Fahrenheit. Those temperatures on Wednesday were the warmest recorded in the UK in at least nine years, according to the UK Met Office.

SEE ALSO: Pope Francis: Global warming is a threat to humanity

The heat also made the Wimbledon Tennis Tournament the hottest such event on record. Health authorities in the UK, France and other countries are warning people to drink lots of clear liquids, seek shaded areas and avoid extended outdoor activities to minimize their risk of heat stroke and other heat-related ailments.

Making the heat worse is the presence of high humidity, which is helping to keep overnight low temperatures higher than average. This raises the likelihood of heat-related illnesses, including the possibility of heat-related deaths, since a lack of an overnight cooling period can significantly boost the public health threat from a heat wave of this magnitude.

Summer weather July 1st 2015. Visitors to London enjoy the hot weather in St James's Park in Westminster, as Britain endured the hottest July day on record.

IMAGE: STEFAN ROUSSEAU/ASSOCIATED PRESS

On weather maps, the heat wave kind of looks like a giant shruggie at the jet stream level (about 35,000 feet), with a huge dip or trough in the jet stream to the west of the UK and France, and a massive ridge of high pressure parked over central Europe. 

The technical term for this weather pattern is an omega block, since it resembles the Greek letter omega. But ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This high pressure center located in the middle is responsible for the heat, while the upstream and downstream troughs are helping to keep it locked in place for several days. Such blocking patterns, which reroute atmospheric traffic for thousands of miles, like a school crossing guard on a power trip, tend to be associated with extreme weather events. There appearance and perseverance in recent years may be related to manmade global warming, but climate scientists are still investigating whether there are statistically significant trends and clear evidence of ties to warming, particularly to rapid warming in the Arctic and the loss of sea ice cover.

Such blocking patterns are often seen in extreme heat events, including the historic heat wave of 2003, when between 40,000 and 70,000 people are estimated to have died across western Europe, particularly in France, when temperatures soared into the low-40s during August, when many doctors were off for the month and the government was caught unprepared for the event.

Such a high death toll is not expected from this event, in part because authorities have learned from mistakes made in 2003, and also because this heat wave is not quite as severe as that event was. However, the heat wave is extremely unusual in its severity for this time of year.

Paris reached its second-highest temperature ever recorded according to Meteo France, with a high temperature of 39.7 degrees Celsius, or 103.5 degrees Fahrenheit. This falls short of the all-time record of 40.4 degrees Celsius, or 104.72 degrees Fahrenheit.

Temperatures in Paris are forecasted to stay in the upper 30s Celsius, or upper 90s to low 100s Fahrenheit, for the remainder of the week and into midweek next week.

Why are we seeing hot weather? It’s to do with the position of the #jetstream causing warm air to move in from Europe pic.twitter.com/9GZAE4jz3M

— Met Office (@metoffice) July 1, 2015

In England, the record heat is making the Wimbledon tennis tournament miserable for fans and players alike, considering that the majority of tennis courts don't offer any shade.

On July 1, London's Heathrow International Airport recorded its hottest July day on record, when the temperature reached 36.7 degrees Celsius, or 98.06 Fahrenheit. The Met Office said on Twitter that the previous hottest July day on record in London had been 36.5 degrees Celsius, set in 2006. The actual high temperature at Heathrow may still rise slightly, adding to the record margin.

#Wimbledon has had its hottest day ever. Kew Gardens (nearest observation site) has recorded a temperature of 35.7 °C

— Met Office (@metoffice) July 1, 2015

Wednesday looks to be the hottest day of this heat wave in London, with hot conditions lasting through Friday before the temperature drops by more than 10 degrees Celsius over the weekend.

ECMWF weekly forecast expects temperatures to stay above normal for southern and mainland Europe through July pic.twitter.com/bBinaip24o

— WSI Europe Weather (@WSI_EuroEnergy) June 30, 2015

The unusually mild conditions will spread northeast with time, potentially affecting parts of Scandinavia, the Baltic states and parts of Ukraine by next week.

However, the upper level high pressure area responsible for the heat will be gradually weakening over time, leading to the end of the extreme heat event by late next week, based on several computer model forecasts.

Before then, though, tourists are going to find especially sizzling conditions in Spain, where high temperatures in some parts of the country may eclipse 42 degrees Celsius, or 108 degrees Fahrenheit

high temperatures in some parts of the country may eclipse 42 degrees Celsius, or 108 degrees Fahrenheit, jeopardizing longstanding temperature records.

Spain has already set monthly high temperature records during the ongoing heat event, with Madrid establishing a monthly record for June of 39.7 degrees Celsius, or 103.5 degrees Fahrenheit, on June 30. This beat the old record of 39.1 degrees Celsius, which was set just the day before.

Also on Monday, Madrid's Barajas International Airport reached 40 degrees Celsius, or 104 degrees Fahrenheit, which was a first for the month of June since records began there in 1945, according to weather.com.

Cordoba, Spain, was the country's hot spot. The community in southern Spain reached 43.7 degrees Celsius, or 110.7 degrees Fahrenheit.

Climate studies have shown that manmade global warming raises the odds of extreme heat events globally, and also adds to their severity. This is the case from Texas to California to Europe. A study on the 2003 heat wave found that manmade emissions of greenhouse gases greatly increased the odds of such an extremely warm summer season. In fact, some more recent studies have found that it's extremely unlikely that some exceptionally intense heat events, such as Australia's record-shattering summer of 2013, would have happened without global warming.

Concern on continent as heatwave set to drive temperatures beyond 40C

‘Exceptionally intense’ conditions prompt weather alerts in Spain, Portugal and France, with elderly people and children most at risk

the Guardian,

30 June, 2015

Several European governments have issued weather warnings as a heatwave sweeping through Portugal, Spain and France pushes temperatures above 40C (104F), raising concerns for elderly people and children.

Paris, which has activated its national heatwave emergency plan, is particularly sensitive to the risks after a European-wide heatwave in 2003 led to nearly 20,000 deaths, killing thousands of isolated elderly people in France.

The French ecology minister, Ségolène Royal, has called on those in charge of air-conditioned public spaces, such as libraries, cinemas and shopping malls, to let in the public for respite from the heat. “I don’t think this heatwave will have the same consequences as the one in 2003 because we weren’t as prepared at that time,” Royal said.

Deadly heatwaves will be more frequent in coming decades, say scientists

French authorities have set up a heatwave register in certain towns where isolated elderly people can be checked up on by a phonecall or home visit. Royal recommended that the most vulnerable – older people and children – wet their heads and hair and wrap themselves in cool, wet towels.

A total of 26 departments in France are on high alert, including the Lot and Dordogne in the south-west, where temperatures are expected to exceed 40C, as well as Burgundy and Paris.

The high temperatures, brought on by a mass of hot air flowing north from Africa to Europe in recent days, are expected to last all week and extend further north to the UK and Belgium.

Health officials in the UK have urged vulnerable groups including the elderly, young children and people with breathing difficulties to stay cool. The All England Lawn Tennis Club has warned spectators and players at Wimbledon to take measures to combat temperatures expected to easily exceed 30C (86F) on Tuesday.

“These are not usual meteorological phenomena, [they are] of an exceptional intensity and with a very high level of risk for the population,” a spokesman for Spain’s national weather office said.

Madrid city hall was advising everyone to remain hydrated by drinking at least three litres of water per day and avoiding alcohol. Temperatures in the countryside around Córdoba in southern Spain were expected to rise to 44C (111F).

In the Andalusian capital of Seville, where temperatures reached 42C (108F), children and adults soaked their feet in city fountains while others jumped from bridges into the Guadalquivir river. Beaches across Spain’s southern coast were packed as the heatwave coincided with the start of the high season for tourism.

Officials in Spain and Portugal also cautioned that the scorching temperatures posed a serious danger of forest fires, with Portuguese authorities warning of a particularly high risk in wooded central and northern areas of the country.

After an uncommonly dry winter and spring, almost 54% of the Portuguese mainland was enduring extreme or severe drought at the end of May, official statistics show. With little rainfall in June, that percentage is expected to rise

Heat dome parked over West shatters temperature records, sparks fires

Mashable,

1 July, 2015

The West is baking under a heat dome that has sent temperatures soaring to historically high levels, further drying out soils and priming the region for fast-spreading wildfires. The heat wave is noteworthy for its severity, extent and duration.

During the past seven days alone, 465 warm temperature records have been set or tied across the country, mainly in the West, with 49 monthly warm temperature records set or tied, according to the National Center for Environmental Information in Asheville, North Carolina.

These numbers are rising by the hour as the blistering heat wave continues from interior areas of southern California, across the barren Nevada and Utah deserts, northward into western Montana, and west from there toward Washington and Oregon.

SEE ALSO: How Pakistan and India can prevent future heat wave fatalities

The heat doesn't stop at the Canadian border, though, as record-breaking heat has also taken hold in British Columbia and Alberta.

Cranbrook, British Columbia, set an all-time high temperature record of 98 degrees Fahrenheit, or 36.8 degrees Celsius, on Sunday, according to The Weather Network.

According to weather.com, Revelstoke, British Columbia, which is a ski resort community, saw a high temperature of 103 degrees Fahrenheit, or 39.5 degrees Celsius, on Sunday.

With dozens of wildfires still burning in western Canada and Alaska, a thick blanket of smoke has descended over parts of the intermountain West. This has reduced visibility and increased public health risks for people with respiratory ailments in Montana and the Dakotas, for example.

In fact, some of the smoke has reached as far south as Tennessee, based on satellite observations.

Monday was the third day in a row that Salt Lake City had a triple-digit high temperature. The high temperature on June 29 at Salt Lake City was 104 degrees Fahrenheit, or 40 degrees Celsius, which was three degrees below the city's all time high temperature record, according to the National Weather Service.

Salt Lake City typically sees about six 100-degree days per year. So far this year, they've already had four such days. By the end of the day on Tuesday, that will most likely creep up to five.

Heat dome parked across the West, shown in this simulation of jet stream winds.

IMAGE: EARTH SIMULATOR

The extreme heat is not likely to go away anytime soon, either. Computer model forecasts show it may last until early next week before another heat ridge builds over Alaska, further raising wildfire risks there, and potentially giving all but the Pacific Northwest a respite from the heat.

Take a look at all the #wildfires in Alaska and Canada! The smoke from these fires is making it into the Midwest. pic.twitter.com/Af29x8EAYZ

— NWS Boise (@NWSBoise) June 30, 2015

It's possible that some records for heat wave longevity will be tied or broken by this event, which speaks to its unusual nature. The forecast for some parts of the interior Pacific Northwest calls for high temperatures in the lower 100s Fahrenheit through early next week.

The Weather Channel's Jon Erdman and Nick Wiltgen have compiled a comprehensive list of the most impressive temperature records that have fallen. These include the low temperature in Las Vegas on Friday, which was 91 degrees Fahrenheit, or 32.77 degrees Celsius — a temperature most Americans would consider to be a hot daily high temperature. This was the first time Vegas saw a low in the 90s during the month of June.

The heat dome is parked across a region experiencing a historic drought. The Pacific Northwest has seen steadily worsening drought conditions during the past few months, and the combination of high heat, low humidity and afternoon thunderstorms that fail to deliver much rain yet still zap the ground with lightning (so-called dry thunderstorms) are creating conditions ideal for starting major fires.

Although only one destructive wildfire has hit the lower 48 states as a result of this heat wave event, it's likely that many more are on the way given the tinderbox-like conditions in much of the West.

The areas most at risk for thunderstorms are located on the periphery of the heat dome, near stronger upper level winds that can trigger such storms.

This heat wave is posing a particularly significant public health threat because air conditioning is sparse in many parts of the West, including Idaho, Montana, Utah and Wyoming, weather.com reported.

Several all-time high temperature records were set or tied on June 28 in particular. This includes Chief Joseph Dam, Washington, which reached 113 degrees Fahrenheit, or 45 degrees Celsius, beating the previous all-time high temperature record of 110 degrees set in July of 2006.

Seattle close to record high Wednesday. 88°F forecast.
Redding California at 114°F is scorching. pic.twitter.com/STuZBRLLjF

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) June 30, 2015

Chelan, Washington, reached 110 degrees Fahrenheit, or 43.3 degrees Celsius, on June 28, beating the previous record of 109 degrees, set the previous day. Prior to this heat wave, Chelan's highest all-time temperature was 106 degrees, and records there date back to 1890.

According to Weather Underground weather historian Christopher Burt, if the 113-degree reading in Walla Walla, Washington, on June 28 is validated, it would not just be an all-time record for that location, but an all-time record for the state of Washington. The previous Washington record is 112 degrees Fahrenheit, set in 1961, according to Weather Underground.

Idaho may have also set a new all-time state high temperature record, when Lewiston, Idaho, reached 111 degrees Fahrenheit, which is nearly 44 degrees Celsius, on June 28.

Locations in Montana, such as Kalispell and Missoula, have seen temperatures reach 102 degrees Fahrenheit, or 38.9 degrees Celsius, in a state that is not exactly synonymous with "heat." Helena, the state capital, hit 103 degrees Fahrenheit, or 39.4 degrees Celsius, over the weekend.

Many more records are likely to fall before this event ends, and the long-range climate outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center favor continued above average temperatures across the Pacific Northwest and parts of Alaska.

Climate studies show that global warming is raising the likelihood of extreme heat events and is also enhancing their severity across the world, including the U.S.

In other words, get used to seeing new all-time high temperature records.

This is the forecast for Tacoma, Washington

Blog: Montana's drought is getting much worse

Bad news from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration today Montana's drought is getting much worse

The forecast for Great Falls, Montana - 88F today

Meanwhile in the Pacific....

As I pointed out yesterday the formation of a tropical cyclone in July is totally unprecedented.

There have been more more reports on cyclone Raquel or the Solomon Islands since yesterday’s report that it was weakening but still likely to bring flashfloods and landslides.

This typhoon is due to pass over the area on Friday night US time

CNMI and Guam prepare for typhoon

The Governor of the Northern Marianas, Eloy Enos, has placed the territory on alert as an approaching storm is upgraded to a typhoon.

Typhoon Chan-Hom Photo: Guam National Weather Service Forecast Office

Radio NZ,

3 July, 2015

Typhoon Chan-hom is expected to pass between the southern island of Rota and Guam on Saturday night.

It is still several hundred kilometres away but at its centre has winds of up to 135 kilometres an our.

Our correspondent says it is expected the alert level could be raised further later today.

The CNMI Homeland Security and Emergency Management is to open its Emergency Operations Center this morning and will assign shelters in the schools.

Guam's Governor Eddie Calvo and the US Navy's Rear Admiral Bette Bolivar are encouraging people to prepare.

They have warned the forecast could change quickly and this underscores the need to be prepared.

The Government is warning people to be ready for flooding and to ensure drains are clear.

The typhoon is moving in a northwesterly direction and the Guam Weather Service says it is expected to pass between Guam and Rota at which stage the winds could be up 168 kilometres an hour.