Asia
Summer Forecast: India Drought May Impact Over One Billion People;
Active Typhoon Season Expected
By
Alex Sosnowski,
29
May, 2015
A
very active typhoon season, combined with drought in much of India,
could have a significant impact on lives and property for more than a
billion people in Asia during the summer of 2015.
According
to AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls, "A
phenomenon known as El Niño is forecast to strengthen over the
summer."
El
Niño is a warm phase of the fluctuation of sea surface temperatures
in the tropical Pacific Ocean and usually leads to an above-average
number of typhoons and super typhoons.
How
strong El Niño becomes along with other anticipated factors will
determine the severity of impacts on the weather across southern and
eastern Asia.
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According
to AccuWeather Meteorologist Anthony Sagliani, "In addition to
El Niño, we have warmer-than-average waters extending well north and
west of the tropics in the Pacific, which will create lower
atmospheric pressure and a favorable environment for tropical system
formation."
There
is no way to predict accurately the timing, strength and location of
individual tropical systems months in advance. AccuWeather will
provide updates on where individual storms may form farther along
into the season and the forecast track after they have developed.
"In
addition to the higher-than-average number of typhoons expected, we
also anticipate more long-tracking typhoons, which will have a
greater chance of being strong and impacting multiple land areas
along their path," Sagliani said.
Some
of the typhoons will turn east of the Philippines and Japan. However,
because of the large amount of systems expected, a number of them
could bring significant impact to the Philippines, Japan, Taiwan and
perhaps mainland China.
ELATED:
A
significant impact would be landfall or the remnants of a tropical
system causing major flooding, damage and potential loss of life.
As
the Pacific Basin churns out typhoons this summer and autumn,
conditions over the Indian Ocean Basin will likely displace and
disrupt the monsoon.
"El
Niño conditions tend to lead to below-normal rainfall across much of
India during the monsoon," Nicholls said.
An
Indian farmer pushes his bicycle past a parched paddy field in Ranbir
Singh Pura, about 34 km (21 miles) from Jammu, India, Tuesday, July
15, 2014. Delayed monsoon rains in 2014 raised fears of drought in
some regions with India's meteorological department reporting an
acute deficit in rainfall in many areas. (AP Photo/Channi Anand)
According
to a report by the European
Commission,
India has the second-largest plowable land area in the globe, after
the United States and is one of the world's leading producers of
paddy rice, wheat and sugar cane.
"While
there will be some rainfall on the region, the pattern could evolve
into significant drought and negatively impact agriculture from
central India to much of Pakistan," Nicholls said.
A
key to how severe and long-lasting the drought may be in India may be
water temperatures in the western part of the Indian Ocean.
"If
water temperatures in the western part of the Indian Ocean warm more
quickly than anticipated, then rainfall will be enhanced across
India, thus alleviating drought fears," Nicholls said.
Limited
rainfall is also anticipated in Indonesia.
Much
of the balance of Asia is forecast to experience near- to
above-average temperatures this summer.
In
addition to India and Pakistan being drier than average, a large area
of dry conditions may develop from near the Black Sea and around
Turkey to the Caspian Sea and into western Kazakhstan.
Near-average
rainfall is forecast from Iraq to Iran and Afghanistan to
west-central China and Mongolia.
Areas
that are likely to be wetter than average include Japan, the northern
Philippines and the Yangtze Valley of China.
Locations
that are likely to experience rounds of wet weather include
Manchuria, as well as northeastern, southern and northwestern
portions of China.
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