Ukraine and Russia update - 03/18/2015

Why Putin Did Not Send the Army into Donbass

Unlike Crimea Donbass has no natural border. To take defensible positions Russian army would have to advance westward far beyond Donbass thus taking over areas where a significant part of population supports Kiev rule

Crimea

Russian Insider,

18 March, 2015

Opinion by a Russian blogger which we believe provides a correct albeit only a partial answer to the question asked.

This article originally appeared at Russkiy Malchik. It was translated by J.Hawk at Fort Russ

More commentary on the Crimea film. What finally became clear to me personally is that it was not the Western pressure which influenced Putin’s decision not to send the army into the Donbass. Now we can clearly see that when it comes to the Crimea, Russia’s resolve was demonstrated up to and including the “nuclear briefcase.” In other words, just try something, and you’ll be talking to ballistic missiles. This was improbable even during the best years of the USSR. It tells us that if a similar decision were to be taken concerning the Donbass, you’d see a similar operation, and there would be no clash with NATO—it would drift away.

The obstacle was somewhere else. This deserves close consideration, and not throw about phrases like “how is the Donbass less Russian than Crimea?” This is faulty logic at work, and it was never part of Putin’s thinking. The problem is somewhere else. Donbass is not a peninsula which can be blocked by cutting off the isthmus. If one sends troops into the Donbass, then the frontline becomes longer with every kilometer West, from the Black Sea to Belarussian forests. Therefore if one enters the Donbass one must march, as a minimum, to the natural border of the Dnepr, but that’s Poltava, Sumy, Chernigov, Dnepropetrovsk with their populations, a significant part of which had already been zombified into Russophobia. With every kilometer we’d get a less pro-Russian and more Russophobic (I know this on the basis of examples). The junta was able to sway people’s minds already by March, April, May, so that one could not expect a full support for the Russian Army even in the cities of the Larger Novorossia, not to mention Vinnitsa.

This is an important point which Putin underscored both earlier and at the anniversary of Crimea annexation: he based his decision on the potential support by the population. Crimea was fundamentally ready for the arrival of the Russian Army (it was already there, which made the task easier). But the rest of Ukraine was not. Even in Donetsk a large proportion of local “white collars” and housewives turned out to be Maidan support and ran away from the DPR and LPR. This is not a criticism of the Donbass, but the sad reality for which we are all at fault. Those who stayed on the Donbass paid for their choice in favor of the Russian World with blood, and there isn’t enough marble in the world for a monument to them. But the Russian Army would have had to march further than Donetsk, to Melitopol, Zaporozhye, Kherson, Nikolayev, all the way to Odessa. There are lots of Maidaneks there. And even more people who very quickly accused Russia of aggression. Look at how people behaved in the border town of Sumy, where nobody is so much as stirring against the junta. Once again, it’s not their fault but ours in general, as is the pain and sadness.

Look at how much importance “tyrannical” Putin attaches to people’s sentiments and desires, even if those desires are imposed from the outside. Now we know for certain that the Kremlin was conducting opinion polls constantly and everywhere—in the Crimea, on the Donbass, in Russia concerning both Crimea and Donbass, and in the various regions of Ukraine. One can criticize VVP for this, but he does not want to do anything that does not have the support of the inhabitants of a given territory. He acts in a similar manner in Russia—he makes a decision only when the people are ready, or even more than ready, for it. I think that’s due to an understanding that the government’s actions are truly historical and make lives better only when they are based on the desires of the majority of the population. When the government and the citizens are acting as a united front, it leads to the government of the people (unlike democracy, in which power belongs to the 2% who are democrats).

Already in March Ukraine was not prepared to welcome the Russian Army as a savior. Marching only into the Donbass would have been a half-measure that would have escalated the conflict and put Russia in a dead end. The decision not to send troops into Donbass was painful and forced, but at the same time the most correct one. If one considers the reality, not desires. Life is like that

Ukraine plans to regain control over Donbas by all means — PM Yatsenyuk

According to Arseniy Yatsenyuk, honest and democratic elections should be held in Donetsk and Luhansk regions

TASS,

18 March, 2015

KIEV, March 18. /TASS/. Ukraine intends to restore peace and regain control over the south-eastern Donbas region by all means, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said on Wednesday.

He said local elections should be held in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

"The elections should be honest and democratic, otherwise they are useless," the prime minister said

Lavrov calls Kiev’s decision on Donbas special status gross violation of Minsk agreements

Moscow calls on Germany and France to make a joint demarche to Kiev for violating the Minsk agreements

Russia to boycott UN Security Council informal meeting on Crimea

Russia’s permanent mission to the UN said the upcoming event is "counterproductive and provocative"

US to Start Training 780 Ukrainian National Guard Soldiers Shortly – Biden

US Vice President Joe Biden told Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko that the United States would conduct training sessions for 780 Ukrainian National Guard soldiers as soon as possible, a statement on Poroshenko's website said Thursday.

Sputnik News,
19 March, 2015



MOSCOW (Sputnik) — The announcement was made during a phone conversation between Biden and Poroshenko.



"Joseph Biden spoke about the US president's decision to conduct training sessions for 780 soldiers of Ukraine's National Guard that are to take place shortly," the statement said.



According to Poroshenko's website, Biden also said that the first set of military vehicles will arrive in Ukraine in late March "to boost the defense capabilities of Ukraine."



The United States, alongside the United Kingdom, Canada and Poland, has earlier expressed the intention to send military advisers to Ukraine to train local troops.



On Tuesday, US Army Europe Commander Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges reportedly said that the training of three Ukrainian army battalions had been delayed in order to give more time for the implementation of the ceasefire agreements between Kiev forces and the independence supporters of Ukraine's southeast



Poroshenko Signs Law on Donbas Special Status

Russia Ponders Blacklisting Over 200 Foreign Officials

According to media reports, more than 200 politicians and officials from the European Union and the United States have been included in a list of foreign nationals who may be banned from entering Russia.

Sputnik News,

19 March, 2015

MOSCOW (Sputnik) – More than 200 politicians and officials from the European Union and the United States have been included in a list of foreign nationals who may be banned from entering Russia, local media reported Thursday.

“The list of foreign nationals who may be denied entry into the Russian Federation mirrors similar blacklists in the European Union and NATO states. The United States leads with more than 60 people on the list,” a source close to Russia’s Foreign Ministry told the Izvestia newspaper.

According to the source, the list includes House Speaker John Boehner, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, the US president’s deputy assistant Caroline Atkinson, advisers Daniel Pfeiffer and Benjamin Rhodes, as well as senators John McCain and Bob Menendez.

Russia already introduced entry bans for a number of nationals from the United States, the European Union and other countries in the spring of 2014. The move came in response to sanctions against Russian officials, introduced over Crimea’s reunification with Russia and the crisis in East Ukraine.

Russian Strategic Bombers Conduct Drills in Arctic Circle

Russian Tu-95MC bombers have started exercises in Russia's Arctic North to test the combat readiness of the country's air defense alert force.

Sputnik News,

19 March, 2015

Russian Tu-95MC long-range strategic bombers are carrying out drills in the Arctic Circle in Russia's northwest to test the combat readiness of the country's duty air defense force, according to the press service of the Russian Defense Ministry.

"The crews of the Russian Air Force's long-range aviation are conducting exercises in the Arctic Circle to test the combat readiness of air defense alert force in Russia's northwest. A detachment of the Tu-95MC strategic bombers, which took off from Engels Air Base, has entered the [airspace] of the Kola Peninsula's air defense unit; anti-aircraft systems will [launch simulated attacks] from different directions, as well as at various altitudes and speeds," the press service said in a statement.

The drills come three days after Russian President Vladimir Putin put the country’s Northern Fleet on full alert in a snap combat readiness exercise, which involves more than 38,000 military personnel, about 3,000 land-based mobile weapons systems, as well as dozens of warships, submarines, combat aircraft and helicopters.

The first snap combat readiness checks were initiated by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in 2012.

The Tu-95MC is a modernized version of the Tu-95 four-engine turboprop-powered strategic bomber and missile platform, which has been in service in the Russian Air Force since 1957.

Russian Northern Fleet’s Nuclear Forces Hold Snap Drills

Washington Retaliates: Shifts Anti-Missile Battery Into Poland, Begins Rapid-Response Drills

Zero Hedge,

18 March, 2015

In yet another sign that Washington is keen on preserving the sanctity of sovereign nations’ right to choose peaceful democracy over violent tyranny, the US is set to use Poland as a staging ground in an effort to prove (because some folks weren’t sure) that despite the UK’s inexplicable reluctance to engage in an arms race with Russia and China, the US can still blow things up at the drop of a dime. Here’s The State Dept with more: 

This week the U.S. Army deployed to Poland about 30 vehicles and 100 troops from the 5th Battalion/7th Air Defense Regiment, based in Germany. The U.S. soldiers will train for several days with Polish troops from the 37th Missile Squadron of Air Defense, the 38th Support Squadron, and the 3rd Brigade of Air Defense Command.  

The American forces will set up their Patriot air and missile defense assets in Poland to demonstrate the U.S. Army’s capacity to deploy Patriot systems rapidly within NATO territory.  Training elements will include defending high value assets, ground forces, and population areas from ballistic missiles and air strikes.

Yes, “rapid deployment” of missiles systems. This makes a lot of sense because as we explained yesterday, Vladimir Putin (fresh from an as yet unexplained media hiatus), is busy conducting “snap combat readiness drills” in territories which the Kremlin has Santander-Consumer-style repossessed. But that’s certainly not the only reason for the White House’s move to ratchet up its Eastern European war readiness. As we noted on Monday, Moscow recently made it clear that it isn’t afraid to instigate a nuclear holocaust if it means defending Russia’s natural right to annex a peninsula: 

Having re-emerged from his hibernation, Vladimir Putin is wasting no time getting back to business. Having paced 40,000 troops on "snap-readiness," AP reports that a documentary which aired last night shows Putin explaining that Russia was ready to bring its nuclear weapons into a state of alert during last year's tensions over the Crimean Peninsula and the overthrow of Ukraine's president, and admitted well-armed forces in unmarked uniforms who took control of Ukrainian military facilities in Crimea were Russian soldiers. In the documentary, which marks a year since the referendum, Putin says of the nuclear preparedness, "We were ready to do this ... (Crimea) is our historical territory. Russian people live there. They were in danger. We cannot abandon them."

So regardless of how rational that sounds (i.e. some people who may or may not be Russians live there, so it makes sense that we would deploy nuclear weapons on anyone who questions our right to unilaterally commandeer an entire republic), the US isn’t necessarily ok with what the West perceives as unnecessary acts of aggression and so, in order to counter the idea that military posturing is an effective foreign policy tool, Washington will get more aggressive militarily: 

All of these Operation Atlantic Resolve exercises aim to reassure allies and demonstrate the freedom of movement of NATO defense assets throughout NATO territory.  The United States remains dedicated to maintaining a persistent rotational presence of air, ground, and naval resources in Poland and the Baltic States as long as the need exists to reassure our allies and deter Russian aggression. 

Meanwhile, US allies such as the UK, Australia, and South Korea are set to join the China-led Asian Infrastructure Development Bank and Greek PM Alexis Tsipras is scheduled to meet with Putin next month in what looks like an attempt to undermine the perception of Western economic dominance. In the end, we've got posturing on both sides, and with the US seemingly determined to make a show of strength in the Kremlin's backyard, things could get interesting. 

Stay tuned.

DPR is contemplating offensive on Konstantinovka to defend the citizens from mass repressions

Fort Russ,

18 March, 2015

March 18, 2015
Kharkov Antimaidan Facebook Page
Translated by Krisitna Rus



Donetsk raised the issue of a possible offensive on Konstantinovka, if the Ukrainian security forces will begin reprisals against civilians. Residents of Konstantinovka - are the citizens of DPR, according to the Constitution of the Republic. Located on the temporarily occupied territory. Crime against civilians is a crime against the Republic. That is, a direct violation of the ceasefire. The Republic has the right to protect its citizens, wherever they are (anywhere in the world). Like all developed countries. In Konstantinovka, reportedly, terrible repressions have begun.


KR: Konstantinovka is only 50 kilometers from Donetsk...

"Ukrainian invaders managed to violently take control of all objects in Konstantinovka. From the ground reports indicate that "pravoseki" (Right Sector) broke in at night on armored vehicles and violently dispersed the crowd. There is no data about deaths and injuries at the moment. Now they are sweeping the town. Ukrainian punishers go from house to house, beating residents and randomly snatching citizens, taking them to an unknown destination. No help came. Konstantinovka plunged into the atmosphere of fear and hatred."

Ukrainian Patriots React to the Konstantinovka Tragedy

The 3 plans of Petro Poroshenko

CrossTalk: Ukraine’s delicate balance

Ukraine's delicate balancing act: to the surprise of many the ceasefire designed to de-escalate Ukraine's civil war is holding. Nonetheless there are many reasons to remain skeptical. Kiev is desperate for more arms, which Washington would like to provide. And the Europeans are wary of an American proxy war against Russia.

CrossTalking with Marcus Papadopoulos, James Carden, and Seumas Milne.