The lies of Stratfor

Stratfor Report: Fifty Shades of Lie

Sputnik News,

28 February, 2015

While this isn’t the first time that Stratfor has released such controversial forecasts, the gloomy prediction comes amid an increasingly tense information war between the US and Russia, one in which Washington has exerted tremendous pressure on the EU to support.

00:00 / 00:00

All the while, China and Russia have been deepening their strategic partnership, as the West eyes them with apprehension.

Anna Lyatsou, independent researcher and author, Frank Esman, prominent author and radio producer (Copenhagen), Jon Hellevig, a Finnish economic and political analyst based in Moscow, commented on the issue.

Andrew Korybko: What is your take on this? Will the EU really fragment? Has it already? Is this blown out of proportion? What are your thoughts?

Anna Lyatsou: There are many ideas about what is awaiting the EU in the future. According to Stratfor report Germany would collapse and Poland could take the place of Germany. My question is: what could be the resources for Poland to take the first place in Europe? Yes, Poland has a number of factories – German factories. They produce cars and whatever. And this is where people get their money from. So, it sounds rather strange to me that Germany would be the first country to collapse.

Talking about the EU, yes, there are some ideas that the EU, as it exists right now, might change. But this does not actually mean destruction. First of all, there are voices from the left and from the right European movements that support the idea of returning to the basic ideas of the EU. First of all, it is equality. You remember the Greek elections on the 25th of January. After the Syriza’d victory the first thing that the new Government did, was that they wrote a document to Mrs. Mogherini, saying that Greece and Cyprus do not agree with the European decision to widen the sanctions against Russia without asking Greece or Cyprus.

What is happening is that many European countries are actually losing their equality status within the EU. And many people in Europe hope that this situation would change. There are voices that in the future there might be different blocks. There is an idea that there might be an Anglo-Saxon block around the UK, there might be a Mediterranean block around France and there might be other countries that will be forming the third block without any specific center.

Andrew Korybko: Are there any other official forecasts, like other than the Stratfor’s, that might conflict with this doom and gloom scenario of the EU splitting apart or Russia completely collapsing?

Frank Esman: I think the Stratfor’s report is overdramatizing things. I simply do not believe that Russia will collapse within the next ten years. I don’t believe that the EU will collapse in the next ten years. And I certainly do not believe the predictions about Germany being even weaker than Poland. So, I have some very serious reservations about the report.

Of course, what it builds on are tendencies. And there is no doubt that when it comes to Russia, let me take that first, with the contraction in the Russian economy by 5%, heavy sanctions, 15% inflation etc. and the present situation, generally speaking, yes, Russia is in a crisis and Russia is under pressure. On the other hand, Mr. Putin has 80% of the people behind him and a reasonably stable situation politically. So, no, I don’t think Russia will evaporate.

In the EU, yes, there are different opinions. Yes, there are fractions, discussions. But the dissolution of the EU – no.

Andrew Korybko: Discussing the Stratfor report, I noticed that there actually was a Finnish component, that Karelia will try to integrate with Finland, for example, when Russia has this massive implosion, as they are predicting. What do you think about this, as well as the whole prognosis?

Jon Hellevig: The whole report should be seen as a program platform, as a rallying call for the new world order to establish the Western or the US hegemony. It is not any real analysis, it is a collection of propaganda statements and what those people, that stand behind these circles, want to achieve.

Yes, prior to the WW II part of Karelia has been part of Finland. But the population there today is Russian and there is no sentiment among the people to join Finland. But I think this is meant to be an incitement for the Finnish nationalists, to say that – if you join the Stratfor or the CIA program, then you will have the benefit of acquiring this land piece