A el-Nino watch for the Pacific

I have looked at material from New Zealand's NIWA and I cannot find anything similar to this and certainly NO reference to a warming Pacific.  Either NIWA is sleep at the whee, grossly overfunded or instructed not to report in ways that would indicate that we have a problem in the South Pacific.

It is an absolute scandal that I have to rely on information coming out of Australia.

Conclusion - we have a problem that NO ONE in this country wants to acknowledge. 

See Local dry spell or global drought?

At least the Australian media is doing its job. The New Zealand media isn't!!!

PS. NIWA blandly reports:

"Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean are borderline between neutral and weak El Niño conditions.  

"However - as was the case over the past few months – the atmospheric circulation in the Pacifc is still inconsistent with El Niño.

"International guidance indicates that the probability of El Niño conditions developing  over the next three months (February – April 2015) is about 60%."

And then paints a picture of mild variations from the norm.

BoM upgrades to El Nino Watch as Pacific warms

A combination of warmer-than-average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, weakened trade winds and models showing that further warming is likely over coming months has matched Australia's BoM to upgrade its ENSO tracker alert service to El Nino Watch status.

Reporting Climate Change,
3 March, 2015


There is now a 50 per cent chance of an El Nino Pacific Ocean warming event taking place in 2015, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).

Warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and consistent computer model projections indicating further warming to come have led the agency to upgrade its so call ENSO Tracker alert status to El Nino Watch.

The central to western regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed by 0.2 °C to 0.3 °C over the past fortnight, while monthly sub-surface temperatures were more than 2 °C above average over a large area during February, according to BoM. This is largely the result of weakened trade winds and tropical surface currents in recent weeks and these weakened trade winds are forecast to continue, which may induce further warming.

Six of the eight computer models surveyed by BoM indicate SSTs will exceed El Nino thresholds by the middle of the year. However, BoM caveats this with a warning that the accuracy of forecasts made at this time of the year are lower than those at other times.

Below is the text of the latest ENSO Wrap-Up report, featuring analysis of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) released earlier today (Tuesday 3 March 2015) with related graphics on the right:

Issued on 3 March 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

The Bureau's ENSO Tracker has been upgraded to El Niño WATCH. This is due to a combination of warmer-than-average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and models showing that further warming is likely in coming months. El Niño WATCH indicates about a 50% chance of El Niño forming in 2015.

The central to western regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed by 0.2 °C to 0.3 °C over the past fortnight, while monthly sub-surface temperatures were more than 2 °C above average over a large area for February. This is largely the result of weakened trade winds and tropical surface currents in recent weeks. Weakened trade winds are forecast to continue, and this may induce further warming.

All international models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are likely to remain warmer than average, but within the neutral range, until at least May. By mid-year, six of the eight models indicate SSTs will exceed El Niño thresholds. However, accuracy of forecasts made at this time are lower than those at other times of the year, and hence some caution should be exercised.

El Niño is often associated with below-average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of Australia.

Warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have increased in the central and western equatorial Pacific over the past two weeks. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 1 March shows warm anomalies in the tropical Pacific between about 160°E and 120°W. Temperatures are broadly near average for this time of the year in most of the equatorial Pacific east of this point.

Warm anomalies remain across a large part of the northeast of the Pacific Basin. Waters are also warmer than average in the Tasman Sea between southeastern Australia and New Zealand, with areas of weak warm anomalies also in parts of the Coral Sea and to Australia’s northwest and large parts of the eastern half of the Indian Ocean.

The SST anomaly map for February shows warmer than average waters over large areas of the Pacific. These areas include the tropical Pacific west of about 160°W, much of the northeast of the Pacific Basin, and the Tasman Sea. Warmer waters also persist across large parts of the Indian Ocean.

Compared to January, positive anomalies had decreased slightly in the eastern equatorial Pacific and increased slightly in the western equatorial Pacific.

The sub-surface temperature map for the 5 days ending 1 March shows temperatures are near average across most of the sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific, with an area of warm anomalies present to the east of the Date Line at around 150 m depth. This pool of warmer-than-average water has progressed eastward (this is known as a downwelling Kelvin wave) and become more anomalously warm over the past fortnight. Anomalies in the centre of this region exceeded +4 °C.

The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to February) shows cool anomalies have decreased in the sub-surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific, compared to last month, while warm anomalies have increased in the western and central equatorial Pacific sub-surface. Overall, the pattern of warm and cool anomalies has shifted slightly eastward compared to January.

For February, warm anomalies were present in the top 200 m of the equatorial Pacific sub-surface between about 150°E and 140°W. Anomalies in western parts of this region reached more than +2.5 °C. Cool anomalies were present in much of the top 150 m of the equatorial Pacific sub-surface east of 140°W, with anomalies reaching more than −2.5 °C in the far eastern part of this area.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained relatively stable over the past week, hovering just above zero. The latest 30-day SOI value to 1 March is +0.8. The SOI has recovered from a dip into negative values which was primarily caused by transient weather systems in the vicinity of Tahiti. It is common for tropical weather systems to cause the SOI to fluctuate during the first quarter of the year, especially if a tropical low or cyclone was to pass near either Darwin or Tahiti.

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate La Niña, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate El Niño. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.

Trade winds were weaker than average over the western half of the tropical Pacific for the 5 days ending 1 March (see map). A reversal of wind direction was seen in the far western tropical Pacific; westerly winds have been observed in parts of this area for about three weeks now. However, it is worth noting that westerly wind anomalies in parts of the western tropical Pacific sometimes occur during as a normal part of the breakdown of an El Niño.

Trade winds over the eastern half of the tropical Pacific were near average strength.

During La Niña there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.

Cloudiness near the Date Line has fluctuated between below and above average during the past two week.

Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during El Niño and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during La Niña.

Six of the eight surveyed international climate models favour warming of central Pacific Ocean SSTs over the coming months. About half the surveyed models suggest NINO3.4 will reach El Niño threshold levels during autumn (March–May), with six models indicating this warming will be sustained or increased over the winter months (June–August).

Model outlooks spanning February to May (the traditional ENSO transition period) have lower confidence than forecasts made at other times of year. Model outlooks for predictions through autumn should therefore be treated with caution.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Climate models surveyed in the model outlooks favour a continuation of a neutral phase of the IOD until at least early in the austral winter.

The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April. During this time of year, establishment of negative or positive IOD patterns is largely inhibited by the development and position of the monsoon trough in the southern hemisphere.

End of BoM ENSO Wrap-Up

BoM here.