Collapse of Russia will prove major test for US – Stratfor
24
February, 2015
American
think-tank Stratfor has issued a new 'Decade Forecast,' which says
the EU will decay, China will end up in "a communist
dictatorship," and Russia will disintegrate...though it hasn't
done so yet, despite such predictions taking place in the past.
“It
is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current
form,” the forecast’s chapter dedicated to Russia begins. The
research maintains that Moscow’s “failure to transform energy
revenues into self-sustaining economy” will eventually lead to a
“repeat of the Soviet Union's experience in the 1980s and Russia's
in the 1990s,” with the process accompanied by a demographic
decline that is set to “really hit” Russia.
However,
the forecaster's founder and CEO, George Friedman, recently said that
Russia has the ability to emerge from US-led sanctions and the recent
drop in the ruble due to falling oil prices. "Russians' strength
is that they can endure things that would break other nations,"
Friedman said, suggesting that the country "has military and
political power that could begin to impinge on Europe."
According
to the forecast, Russia’s territorial losses will not be limited to
the European part of the country. Its control over the North Caucasus
is also predicted to “evaporate,” while maritime regions in
Russia’s Far East will “move independently” to the countries
they are “closely linked to” – namely China, Japan, and the US.
Additionally, Karelia will “seek to rejoin” Finland. The US
think-tank, sometimes referred to as a “shadow CIA” due to its
employment of former CIA analysts, also warns that this time Russia's
alleged tendency of solving problems with "secret police"
won't work, and the Federal Security Service will be unable to rescue
the country.
The
collapse of Russia “will be a major test for the United States,”
the research warns, concluding that “Washington is the only power
able to address the issue.” However, the research leaves room for
possible incidents and some nuclear missiles being “fired in the
process.”
Whatever
it will take to seize control of Russia’s nuclear forces, inventing
a military solution to the problem or imposing a “stable and
economically viable government,” this issue will have to be
addressed, the research claims, “likely in the next decade.”
'EU
has fragmented, will decay'
According
to the report, it's not only Russia that will fall to pieces.
Stratfor’s researchers believe that “inter-European relations
will be increasingly unpredictable and unstable” due to major
political tendency of moving “away from multinational solutions to
a greater nationalism.”
“No
single policy can suit all of Europe,” Stratfor says, explaining
that Europe has already fragmented into at least two parts. “What
benefits one part of Europe, harms another.” The European Union
"might survive in some sense," but its members relations
will be "not binding" and "governed primarily by
bilateral or limited multilateral relationships.”
'China
will end up in dictatorship'
Just
like Japan and the “Asian tigers” Taiwan and South Korea, China
“has completed its cycle as a high-growth, low-wage country and has
entered a new phase,” Stratfor says. This phase will be
characterized by an “expansions climax,” or slowdown.
China
is following a “hybrid path” of its own by centralizing political
and economic powers, ensuring the Communist Party’s control over
the military, and consolidating the nation’s fragmented industries.
According to Stratfor, this will result in the construction of a
communist dictatorship.
Elsewhere,
there will be further defragmentation and conflicts spreading through
the Middle East and North Africa.
The
latest “Decade Forecast” is the fifth published by Stratfor in
the last two decades, following reports in 1996, 2000, 2005 and 2010.
'World
will remain a dangerous place'
The
geopolitical intelligence firm provides strategic analysis and
forecasting to individuals and organizations around the world.
Publishing their 'Decade Forecast' every five years, Stratfor has
repeatedly tried to predict various paths that international
governments and political leaders may take. Although the company
claims its forecasts are "about predicting the unexpected,"
quite often they tend to depict its vision of the world's future in
broad terms.
Stratfor
"As
in the period prior to World War I, prosperity and instability will
go hand in hand," Stratfor said in its forecast for 1995-2005.
Having predicted that the decade would be "a period of
increasing disharmony both between nations and within nations,"
with China expected to suffer "growing instability, including
the strong possibility of fragmentation and civil war," it has
only been the US that has been envisioned by the think-tank as "the
world's only superpower - the only power able to project its forces
globally."
In
the 2005-2015 report, the US was predicted to militarily "maintain
control of the seas as well as of space, ensuring strategic global
domination." At the same time, Stratfor expected its country to
"disengage from Iraq – and also from the rest of the Islamic
world." However, Stratfor has said the previous report "suffered
a deep flaw when failed to forecast the US-jihadist war and, in fact,
miscalculated on the Middle East as a whole."
Regarding
Russia, already in the 2005 published report it "has been
collapsing slowly but surely."
"The
elite holding on to Russia's capital and center while the rest of the
country crumbles," was expected to "result in the
delegitimization of the Russian state and hence disintegration,” it
said. "An attempt by Washington to replace Putin with a more
accommodating Russian president" should have happened by 2015,
according to Stratfor.
"The
turning point could come soon, or it could be years away," the
previous forecast said.
Sources
and methods used by the company have received criticism over the
years, especially after the now jailed hacker Jeremy Hammond broke
into the Stratfor network as part of the hacktivist collective
Anonymous and handed over obtained documents to WikiLeaks for
publication. Hammond has admitted in court that he had collected
millions of sensitive inner-office emails among other items from the
Texas-based company’s computers.
The
Stratfor emails released by WikiLeaks and its partners reveal that
the intelligence firm's employees have had close – and potentially
illegal – connections with the US government and law enforcement
officials. The leaked documents also suggest that Stratfor has been
occasionally hired by multi-national corporations to target their
opponents.
Within
numerous correspondence collected by Hammond and his colleagues was
also an email from Stratfor vice president Fred Burton, a former
government official with strong ties to law enforcement. In the
email, he insisted that an indictment against Julian Assange had
already been finalized. Accusations that the firm investigated
peaceful protestors within the Occupy Wall Street movement, along
with members of the non-violent civil disobedience movement US Day of
Rage and many others were among other emails.
When
Hammond "easily" gained access to the Stratfor system, he
was astonished to find that the company’s credit card data had not
been encrypted, with the fact later becoming one of the major
embarrassments for the intelligence firm. Hammond is currently
serving a 10-year jail sentence – one of the longest terms ever
handed down to a US hacker.
Financial War: US wants to trigger wave of Russian bankruptcies
Finanz-Krieg: USA wollen Pleite-Welle von russischen Unternehmen auslösen
Eric Zuesse
Der britische Außenminister Philip Hammond hat am Wochenende von US-Außenminister John Kerry erfahren, welche Maßnahmen die USA als nächste gegen Russland planen. Washington erwartet, dass die EU mitzieht, um die russische Wirtschaft in die Knie zu zwingen. (Foto: dp
24
February, 2015
The
US government insists on a tightening of sanctions against Russia,
and demands that the EU follow suit. Washington now
wants sanctions that will have a "devastating” effect,
which Russia must “suffer.” Financial measures are
planned to trigger a wave of bankruptcies in Russia.
British
Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond over the weekend had a visit by US
Secretary of State John Kerry, concerning the US plan. Washington
expects the EU to cooperate to force the Russian economy to
its knees.
The
US will drastically tighten sanctions against Russia: US
Secretary of State John Kerry said this weekend in London that
Russia was "guilty of gravely violating the Minsk
truce." Kerry said Russia had the city Debalzewo
attacked, and supported paramilitary warriors in the region,
and contracted new troops near Mariupol. Kerry said: "This
is a violation of the ceasefire. We are serious: there will be
more actions that cause additional pain in the Russian
economy.”
He
went on: "There is a serious discussion between us and our
European allies, as to what sanctions we will bring next and
when they are due to come into force. I am confident that
there will be additional measures in response to Russia's
violations of the ceasefire.”
British
Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond fully backed the remarks by
Kerry. A few months ago American Vice President Joe Biden
explained how the US created the EU’s role in the strategy
directed against Russia. The collaboration now appears to
function somewhat smoother than it did at first.
At
the EU level, politicians can apparently no longer resist America’s
pressure. Thus, the EU observer reported several
unnamed permanent EU officials saying that further sanctions
are inevitable. The EU Observer also quoted a senior US
official, explaining America’s strategy. Whether this
official is Daniel Fried, who coordinates the sanctions
between the US and the EU, is unknown.
The
Americans hope that the next step will have "devastating" impact
on the Russian economy. Thus, there could be a wave of
bankruptcies among Russian companies, because many companies
risk bankruptcy if loans due in dollars during the coming
year cannot be rolled over. [Bankruptcy would be expected because
the value of the ruble has plunged and many more of them will thus
be needed in order to pay the balance due.]
To
achieve this goal and take advantage of the plunged ruble, the US
government intends to resort to a technical trick to shorten
the duration of existing loans and credits, which Russian
banks, energy companies and arms companies have in
European and American banks. US officials told the EU
observer: "If we want, we can make sure that they are
really suffering. The inability to raise new capital
hurts most -- there is no alternative to US and European
financial markets.” [Thus, there will be bankruptcy.]
Another
US contact said in Brussels, that the exclusion of Russia from
the SWIFT payments system [the ability to transact business
electronically instead of via paper records] would again be
discussed and again reinforced. The Americans had tried
this step, which is particularly feared by the Russians, a few
months ago, by direct pressure, but failed because the
independent SWIFT organization refused to obey
Washington. However, when America succeeds on this, the
cash flow to Russian companies will be suppressed. Russia is
therefore rushing to install an alternative to the SWIFT
system, hoping to reduce the impact on the Russian domestic
payments when America pulls the plug and disconnects Russia from
SWIFT.
The
American rating agencies have already strengthened sanctions
by classifying Russian government bonds as junk. This
downgrade means that some large US pension funds are
legally obliged to withdraw from their Russian
government bonds. [That forces the ruble’s value
down even further.]
EU
observer also reports that the Americans intend to deliver weapons
soon to Ukraine. This is the next step [in America’s war
against Russia], which is set in a recently adopted US law.
The
Russian violations of the ceasefire, that are alleged by the
Americans, line up with the previously existing [dubious
American] argument, as follows:
a: It
is completely unclear who shot at Maidan [the coup in February
2014].
b:
The shooting down of passenger flight MH17 is also
not even beginning to be elucidated.
c:
The killers of civilians in Odessa [in a massacre of
pro-Russian demonstrators by burning them in the Trade Unions
Building on 2 May 2014] are also unclear.
d:
Who is shelling Mariupol is likewise unclear.
e:
Who was behind the rocket attack on the bus in
Donetsk is also unknown.
Each
one of these events had been taken by the Americans as
an opportunity to impose tougher sanctions against Russia.
[Each one of these excuses by America for economic sanctions
against Russia was dubious, but the EU went along anyway.]
It
is not known whether there will be any response by the West to the
actions of Ukraine’s Right Sector and other anti-Russian
Ukrainian extremists: The right-wing paramilitary militias
have informed that they’ll not even adhere to the Minsk
agreements [but Kerry ignores that]. They also have
established their own general staff, and refuse to
follow orders from the official Ukrainian army regarding
their military operations against the pro-Russian rebels.
On
the behavior of the extreme right in Ukraine, the opinion of the EU
and of the Americans is not known. [Publicly, there is no
opinion on that, but only on attacking Russia.]
—————
Investigative
historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of They’re
Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records,
1910-2010,
and of CHRIST’S
VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.
Because
Zuesse has found German Economic News to be the
world’s most reliable general-news source, especially on matters
pertaining to international relations, he frequently cites it as a
source, and this is also why he translates some of its articles
into English, so as to make them available in the English-speaking
world as well.
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