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Tuesday, 6 January 2015

Oil proces fall below $50

Dow falls over 300 points as oil prices hit new lows
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost over 300 points as crude oil prices briefly dipped below $50 per barrel thrashing energy stocks on Monday.


RT,
5 January, 2015



As of 1:21 pm ET the Dow fell by 1.82 percent losing 323 points. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index followed close behind 1.55 percent off losing over 36 points at 1:11 pm ET.

S&P 500 has only been down 1.5%+ on one of the year's first two trading days 7 times; last occurrence was in 2001.

The US stock markets fell as crude oil futures prices dropped to their lowest since mid-2009 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) on Monday.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) February futures fell by nearly 5 percent briefly dipping below $50 a barrel. Brent crude hit its multi-year low dropping at one point to $52.90 a barrel as it’s February futures fell by over 6 percent.
The declines in oil are representing something much more ominous, which is a global economic slowdown,” Jeff Sica, president and CEO of advisory firm Circle Squared Alternative Investments, told Bloomberg by phone. “Investors have gone past the thought that this is good for the economy.”


Meanwhile the US officials say they believe the drop in oil prices has so far been beneficial for the American economy.

I’m always very hesitant to draw any conclusions or offer any analysis about movements in the stock market,” White House press secretary Josh Earnest said Monday afternoon during a scheduled briefing with the media. We’re always monitoring the impact that any sort of policy area would have on the economy, so it’s certainly something that we’re watching. I think as a general matter, speaking broadly, the impact of falling energy prices has been good for the US economy”

Earlier on Monday, the European benchmark for Brent oil dropped to $54.72 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London, Bloomberg reported. February futures slid as much as 2.8 percent extending a loss of 5.1 percent since last week.

By the end of 2014 Brent futures fell by 48 percent over the year. Monday’s opening session of the new year continued the disappointing decline.
The slumping oil prices come amid slackened global demand while supplies still remain high.
"There's no doubt that we have a combination of supplies hitting their zenith at a time when demand is weakening," Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago told Reuters.

Oil production in Russia and Iraq surged to the highest level in decades. The Iraqi Oil Ministry said on Sunday that it plans to increase crude exports to a record in January. Russian oil production rose 0.7 percent in 2014 and averaged 10.58 million barrels a day, which set a post-Soviet record.
The euro was also hit on Monday tumbling to new lows against the dollar. The currency fell to $1.1861, its weakest level since 2006 during Asian trading hours, however picked up slightly to trade at $1.1950 during European ones.
Richard Peterson, senior director at S&P Capital IQ told MarketWatch that there will be volatility on the market for some time adding that he remains optimistic in the long-term.
Markets are more on a pause than retreat as concerns over euro and oil have taken over fundamentals for now,” he said.” We still expect 11% fourth-quarter earnings growth for the S&P 500 companies excluding energy sector, which will drive markets higher,” Peterson added.






Stocks Suffer Worst Santa Claus "Rally" Since 1999 As Crude Plunges Below $50



5 January, 2015

Well that really did escalate quickly...


The market's internals triggered another Hindenburg Omen (each of the prior clusters worked and were saved by Fed speak)...


This was the worst Santa Claus Rally (Sell-off) since 1999...



But still up from pre-FOMC...



Europe started the day ugly with German CPI and Grexit fears mounting (trumping any hope/hype from Draghi for now)...



Leaving US equities down hard on the day...  (as a late day ramp failed totally!)



The Dow closed below its 50-day moving average (first time since the day before FOMC)...



With Energy worst on the day...



As it catches down to oil prices and credit spreads...


As a realization that maybe oil prices are on to something ripples thru markets... perhaps stocks can't handle this truth


Treasury yields were crushed lower... with 10Y nearing 2.00% again (and 30Y under 2.60%) - with 10Y and 30Y now below FOMC levels...



With stocks catching down...



Stocks caught down to credit's lack of exuberance...



The US Dollar rose modestly despite signficant JPY strength though it did fade throughout the US session...



Despite modest USDollar strength, gold and silver also rose on the day... (Gold above $1200 and Silver over $16 again)



Charts: Bloomberg

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