Arctic
Polar Blast Coming: Midwest Temperatures To Plunge 35 Below Average,
Chicago Facing Record Lows
4
January, 2015
Following
several weeks of economic data that has been, despite erroneous
expectations of a Fed rate hike, one major disappointment after
another including regional
Fed reports, housing
data,manufacturing
surveys, construction spending,
and durable
goods data,
the US economy is about to get the slowdown scapegoat it so
desperately needs: according to Weather.com,
following a brief overnight respite from cold temperatures, entering
the first full week of January, both the Midwest and the East will
see a plunge to the coldest temperatures of the season.
This blast of
cold temperatures will be different than the Arctic chill that ended
2014, which was mainly confined to the northern tier. This time the
frigid air will push farther south and east.
As
Weather.com forecasts, two rounds of Arctic cold will move through
much of the U.S. this week. The first blast moves in behind Winter
Storm Frona and begins in the Plains on Sunday and into the Midwest
on Monday. High temperatures will be up to 25 degrees below average
and will not reach above the freezing mark as far south as Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle.
The
second round will be even colder and will push farther south and
east. A ridge of high pressure will build in the West with a deep
trough in eastern Canada which will allow air from the Arctic to move
southward across the eastern half of the U.S.
As
a result, high
temperatures are expected to be up to 35 degrees below average in
parts of the Midwest by midweek.
Chicago may see a subzero high temperature on Wednesday. The last
time the mercury did not reach zero was on January 6 of last
year. Chicago
may also set a daily record cold high temperature on Wednesday
(current record is 3 degrees set just last year) and a record low
temperature on Thursday morning (current record is 10 degrees below
zero).
It's
not just the midwest states that will be impacted: a stretch of
below-freezing temperatures may be in store for New York next week as
the current forecast has temperatures below 32 degrees from Monday
night to Sunday afternoon. Boston is expected to see the coldest
conditions so far this winter as lows may drop down into the single
digits for Thursday morning. The lowest temperature so far this
season is 18 which was recorded on December 8.
And
that's when the wind chill arrives: gusty winds will accompany the
cold temperatures as a strong area of high pressure builds in behind
the clipper system. These gusty winds will make it feel even colder.
Wind chill values are expected to be below zero for much of the
Midwest and Northeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning and
in the single digits for parts of the Southeast. The coldest morning
for many will be on Thursday as lows will plunge into the single
digits and teens for much of East, with subzero readings in the
Midwest and northern New England.
The
Great Lakes region, which was stunned at the lake-effect that burried
it under several feet of snow in late November, will get a chance to
reprise it all over again, when it gets another lake-effect snowfall
in under two months in the coming week.
The
brutal cold is not expected to last too terribly long. Temperatures
will begin to warm by the weekend throughout much of the Midwest and
East, but temperatures may remain below average as a third shot of
cold temperatures may impact the Great Lakes and Northeast next
weekend.
The
best news for establishment economists is that, post-facto, there
will be yet another very convenient explanation to justify the rapid
decline in economic data in December, especially now that the "Polar
Vortex" phenomenon is firmly ingrained in the popular
consciousness, the same polar vortex which in Q1 2014 singlehandedly
wiped away nearly $200 billion in trendline growth from the US
economy. And with the December jobs report on deck this week, the
frigid weather couldn't have come at a more convenient moment. Just
please forget that the "explanation" for the December
slowdown took place in January.
General conditions in the Northern Hemisphere
Australia
and the Pacific Ocean Update 03/01/2015
Australia has been experiencing Heatwave Conditions in the South Australian region which is now creating bushfires.
Positive Sea Surface Anomalies Continue to spread across the entire Pacific and Indian ocean regions. The BOM is forecasting Alert Status for El Nino however there are continuing mismatches with the teleconnections required. SST Anomalies in NINO 3/4 have been over +0.8 degree for 7 months now which is consistent with an El Nino, however the Tradewinds are still strong and the Atmosphere is still not connecting with the ocean. The sub-surface temperature map for the 5 days ending 21 December shows temperatures are warmer than average below the surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific. Sub-surface waters are more than 3 °C warmer than average in an area east of 120°W at around 100 m to 50 m depth. This pool of warmer-than-average water has continued to move slowly eastward and rise closer to the surface over the past week. Information taken from www.bom.gov.au and www.noaa.gov.au
Update on the South Australian bushfires
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