A coup coming in Kiev?

Poroshenko's Emergency Return to Kiev

Military defeats force Poroshenko to leave Davos ahead of schedule.

By Petr Likhomankov

Fort Russ,

21 January, 2015

Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

Poroshenko hastily ended his three-day visit to Switzerland and returned to Ukraine on the day Davos forum opened. Ukraine’s leader hoped for political and economic successes, but received only frustration.

The failed Ukrainian offensive against Donetsk and the barbaric Ukrainian methods that had become obvious even to Europeans who used to sympathize with Ukraine, made Poroshenko’s meeting with the financial and political elite of Europe and the world senseless.

Poroshenko’s misfortunes had begun as soon as he arrived in Zurich, where he was met by a large anti-war demonstration, and his lecture about peace in the entire world was interrupted by a local student who asked the audience not to listen to “a child killer”. Shortly after that the Ukrainian president launched a few disconnected tirades in Twitter and declared himself the President of peace.

His social network statements which sounded like self-justification, reflected Poroshenko’s objectives in Davos. Poroshenko had hoped to give emotional speeches about a bus “shot to pieces by terrorists” at Volnovakha, his “peace plan” that had been gathering dust for half a year, and attempts at reforms. Then he’d ask for financial and political assistance. While Poroshenko was begging for money in Switzerland, it was assumed that his generals will continue shelling Donetsk and Gorlovka and force the militia to retreat. Then after his triumphant return from Switzerland Poroshenko would have been able to announce on Twitter than the situation is radically different, and the representatives of DPR and LPR can no longer be considered participants of the trilateral contact group. That would have rendered the Minsk Agreements irrelevant, which would mean their rewriting on Ukraine’s terms.

It was a painful blow to Kiev to hear the information revealed by DPR Prime Minister Zakharchenko concerning Ukrainian army casualties. Only during the night from Tuesday to Wednesday it lost 40 killed, or ten times more than the “standard” casualty reports provided by CTO press service. The tales told by captured “cyborgs” about how their command sent them to slaughter caused a painful bursting of the bubble in which many war-minded Ukrainians lived, judging by their emotional reactions in social networks.

“Glamorous patriotism, inappropriate military shows and parades, victory propaganda allow fools to act foolishly, and high-ranking criminals to commit crimes. The parades and shows have come to an end, ladies and gentlemen. The recent events at the front show that we don’t even have adequate tactical reserves to localize the actions of the adversary,” is how the the situation was summed up a well-known Ukrainian volunteer Yuriy Kasyanov, whom nobody would suspect of militia sympathies.

The ever-more evident loss of trust toward official media information threatens the partial mobilization which Poroshenko “blessed” with his signature before departing for Switzerland. Even Western Ukrainian media cannot conceal the fact that military-age men are hurriedly leaving the country, with many fleeing not to Poland but to Russia: the tickets for the “Lvov-Moscow” train have been sold out month in advance.

The world opinion concerning the “counter-terrorist operation” is also changing: when Poroshenko was in Zurich, an authoritative German TV channel ZDF showed a report in which the Ukrainian army was accused of killing civilians. The same conclusions were drawn by the US Associated Press agency.

Poroshenko no longer has the ear of Kiev “hawks.” During his absence Rada Deputy Sergey Pashinskiy said that the government is prepared to introduce martial law in the country. That would mean Ukrainians could no longer leave the country, Poroshenko’s concept of a local “counter-terror operation” would collapse, and international financiers would cease negotiations with Ukraine. Due to all that, Poroshenko’s further stay in Davos made no sense. And now, having returned to Kiev, Poroshenko will have to put together a new “peace plan”, in order not to lose the entire country along with his presidential baton.

Translator’s Note: The psychological impact of the loss of the Donetsk Airport by the “cyborgs” cannot be overestimated. It was a high-prestige geographical location on which the Ukrainian military (and, by extension, the civilian leadership) had staked their reputations. DPR’s victory in that battle therefore had not only military but, especially, psychological importance as it revealed that the Ukrainian emperor has no clothes. Given that the Ukrainian military had launched only relatively feeble counterattacks that failed to retake even one of several localities and outposts taken by DPR and LPR forces, it suggests that the Ukrainian front line is holding only barely, and might collapse in the event of a concerted Novorossia push. It is also evident that Poroshenko cannot count on even a symbolic show of Western support. Even the usually reliable and Photoshop-savvy US State Department can't force itself to confirm yet another round of Ukrainian claims of a Russian invasion. One is left with an impression that many in the West are quietly hoping that the whole Ukraine mess would just quietly go away, even if it means Russia picks up the pieces and with them the cost of Europe's and America's international adventuring.

Tsarev: Poroshenko will be overthrown in February

Oleg Tsarev predicts the approximate date of Poroshenko’s overthrow at the behest of the United States.

Fort Russ,

21 January, 2015

By Ivan Volkov

Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

Arseniy Yatsenyuk already gave orders to conduct an information campaign against the Ukrainian president. Arsen Avakov is collecting compromising information on Poroshenko. A Ridus Exclusive.

Chairman of Novorossia Parliament Oleg Tsarev gave an exclusive interview to Ridus. He said why the Kiev US embassy puppetmasters, together with Turchinov, Yatsenyuk, and the odious oligarch Kolomoysky who is always chasing dollars, want to see Poroshenko overthrown with every fiber of their beings.

Oleg Anatolyevich, you said that the overseas patrons of Poroshenko are preparing his overthrow. How did he fail to satisfy the US president?

There are three groups working on Ukraine in the US embassy. And even though they are competing for influence over policy, just as local elites compete for US approval, they are in agreement that Poroshenko needs to be replaced.

First of all, he has good relations with the Russian ambassador Zurabov and a profitable business in Lipetsk. There are also other factors which I don’t wish to describe so as not to complicate the situation further.

Secondly, Poroshenko is more likely to conclude peace with the Donbass, while the US needs a war. Not because his conscience is bothering due to the innocently murdered children. Poroshenko understands that in peacetime he will have more power. Then he would become the second most important political figure in Ukraine. While the top of the podium is occupied by the US ambassador.

During the time of military operations MVD head Avakov has an advantage, and Avakov is a protégé of Turchinov and Yatsenyuk, who are Poroshenko’s competitors. Then there’s Kolomoysky, who has formed an entire army in the east of the country out of criminal elements, which does not take Kiev’s orders. Poroshenko can deal with his competition only in peacetime.

Question: What are the disagreements between Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk, Turchinov, Kolomoysky?

Poroshenko has been in conflict with Yatsenyuk and Turchinov since Yatsenyuk became prime minister. Yatsenyuk began to earn a lot of money off that job and did not want to share with anyone.

Poroshenko understands that one of them (Yatsenyuk or Turchinov) can occupy the president’s seat. He did everything to exclude Yatsenyuk from the political team. But VP Biden flew in and insisted on a big coalition. Games continued up to then. On the one hand Yatsenyuk wanted a coalition without Poroshenko, on the other, Poroshenko wanted a coalition without Yatsenyuk.

Kolomoysky needs resources to improve his business, which is in a difficult situation. But Poroshenko did not give him refinancing. He received refinancing only once, after he established his assets in the Crimea. Then he threw means his assets onto the currency market, leading to a jump in national currency.

Incidentally, at the moment the hryvnya exchange rate is holding on only because all exchange points have been closed. There is an exchange rate, but dollars can be bought only from “bosses.” The actual exchange rate is 30-40% higher than the state acknowledges.

Kolomoysky desperately needs money and is not getting them. That’s why the conflict with Poroshenko. And, believe me, I know Kolomoysky well. If he thought such conflict were impossible, he would not have entered into it. Kolomoysky considers Poroshenko a very weak figure.

And that’s all there’s to it. Poroshenko has nobody to rely on. Americans don’t like him, and neither does the internal competition. So the president is in a critical position. The stakes are very high. His competitors want to carry out another armed overthrow, and might simply kill Poroshenko. So for him what’s at stake is not even money, but life.

Question: How are Poroshenko’s opponents preparing?

Arseniy Yatsenyuk already held a closed meeting with Avakov and a few deputies. Yatsenyuk tasked them with organizing an information campaign against Poroshenko. He must be made appear guilty for the economic catastrophe. What’s more, they’ll blame Poroshenko for the course of the hryvnya, the failure of the military operation on the Donbass, and also appointing foreigners to ministerial posts.

Avakov reassured everyone that he will share with the media participating in the attack information from wiretaps on Poroshenko and from collected secret information.

Question: There is a version in the internet that at some point Ukraine will suffer an economic collapse, and the current Kiev regime will simply dissolve. How would you comment that?

Things don’t happen all by themselves. There is no reason for optimism. The US has many scenarios. First of all, they have created a whole slew of loyal politicians. Once the pro-US Poroshenko leaves, he’ll be replaced by the pro-US Turchinov or Yatsenyuk. Then the mayor of Lvov Sadovy or someone else. They are all pro-US. There are no non-pro-US politicians capable of coming to power. The bench is well protected and will implement the will of the US.

During the Vietnam War, the pro-US authorities of that country changed many times. But the war continued. Every new leader shifted responsibility for earlier failures to the earlier one, and the cycle continued without pause. The war stopped only when the communist North won it. Neither the political situation nor the military nor economic influenced it.

Question: Are there also several scenarios for the Donbass?

Absolutely. The first scenario is the military confrontation, which is showing its flaws. But the Ukrainian authorities believed they had enough military power to overcome LPR/DPR resistance. They considered two variants: a complete elimination of us—the separatists or, if the worst comes to worst, take three quarters of Donetsk and isolate LPR and DPR from one another. But it didn’t work out like that.

Novorossia armed forces offered resistance and are now storming Avdeevka and Peski in order to stop the shelling of Donetsk. The Ukrainian army is panicking. The road from Donetsk to Kiev is full of vehicles, nationalists are fleeing with their loot. Something similar is taking place in Mariupol.

The second scenario is the economic isolation of the Donbass. LPR and DPR cannot run their economy without support. Russia will be forced to help. Then it faces a choice. If they help, Russia will be punished for military assistance, if no, they’ll punish for economic support.

Right now none of the Ukrainian politicians are speaking of peace and restoring neighborly relations with Russia. They understand that the US will control the situation for some time to come and therefore are using the anti-Russian slogans just to survive. However, some of my fellow deputies are taking their families out of Kiev abroad or to other cities because they don’t want to suffer from the vacuum of power that will occur in the event of a coup.

Question: so the Ukrainian tragedy will continue to make headlines for a long time?

If nobody shows interest in Ukraine, for a very long time. Russia has not interfered in Ukrainian politics for over 20 years. Americans and Europeans entirely freely worked in the country. They spent billions of dollars. They created 5 thousand of NGOs, 150 thousand workers received their salaries. That’s an entire army that obeyed orders and created the Maidan when it was needed.

Russia was working with individual members of the elite, not paying attention to the public opinion. And those representatives did not always discharge their responsibilities due to their personal mentality. That was a big mistake.

Also, when CIS was formed, Russia undertook not to work on the territory of adjacent states. It meant that Russia for a long time had no ability to influence CIS countries’ public opinion.

Therefore right now we must not let the situation resove itself. The fascist regimes in Latin America survived for decades with US support. Political opponents were eliminated, death squads were at work, the masses suffered in poverty, the economy was destroyed, but nobody could do anything.

Question: So they’ll overthrow Poroshenko, but the peaceful citizenry will continue to die…Minsk Agreements are not being implemented, the “Normandy Four” meeting was cancelled…

Right now Russia is trying to establish some sort of a relationship with Poroshenko. But if he is overthrown, it will be an entirely different country.

Even greater Russophobes will come to power, hard-core US puppets who have no ties to Russia.

Poroshenko spoke about his presidency already three years before coming to power. He came to Moscow, met with influential people. Poroshenko, as you may remember, was a minister of foreign affairs, he has excellent contacts.

I know that the overthrow is planned for the anniversary of the Maidan. On February 15 there will be a national assembly in Kiev. And it’s entirely possible that about 8pm it will transform into an armed assault on the president’s administration, as it did when Yanukovych was president.

Poroshenko understands the risks perfectly well. He already created a working group to prevent a coup. Its members are highly placed “power ministry” officials and those members of the administration who oversee the power structures.

Translator’s Note: Tsarev’s understanding of the internal Ukrainian politics is certainly second to none. I would take issue with his characterization of the level of US interest and involvement. Clearly, the US government tried to score a cheap geopolitical victory by pulling Ukraine into its orbit. But neither the US nor the EU are showing any interest of paying the cost of maintaining the current regime in power, which is a major difference between the current US approach and the policies adopted during the Cold War, when the USG spent billions of dollars on its fascist puppets. Poroshenko is likely to  be overthrown due to lack of US support rather than a US plot. Moreover, one has to keep in mind that should Poroshenko be overthrown, it will be difficult for the US to justify subsidizing yet another Ukrainian government that came into power through violence. There are no indications the US is planning to open the spigots once Poroshenko leaves, and there is no anti-Poroshenko campaign in the Western media, which would be a sure sign of an impending overthrow. The people who are likely to be doing the overthrowing, the Right Sector et al., do not follow orders from the US or anywhere else—they are merely reacting to the weakness of the current system, including not only Poroshenko but also Yatsenyuk, Turchinov, and everyone else, who are as vulnerable as Poroshenko, if only because it’s Yatsenyuk whose face is associated with the “shock therapy”, not Poroshenko.