Polar vortex predicted for Britain

POLAR VORTEX WARNING: Latest winter weather models show UK faces MONTHS of heavy snow

A FREAK series of rare atmospheric events is set to plunge Britain into the worst winter of modern times with heavy snow paralysing the entire country within WEEKS.


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Express,

12 November, 2014

Shocked forecasters warned tonight the latest high-tech weather models point to a CATASTROPHIC big freeze in late 2014 with THREE MONTHS of blizzards and Arctic gales.

They fear a lethal and unprecedented combination of low pressure, above-average rainfall and a freak Polar vortex will come together in a perfect storm of misery for Winter 2014.

Moist air from the Atlantic currently causing the mild, wet and windy weather threatens to collide with bitter Arctic winds.

It means a dramatic plunge in the current mild temperatures will turn torrential rain to blizzards capable of smothering the ENTIRE COUNTRY in feet-deep snowdrifts.

The big chill could arrive as early as this month although some models show the colder flow of air will be held at bay until the New Year.

However when it arrives, it threatens to rival the historic winter of 1947 which saw snow fall EVERY SINGLE DAY between January and March.

Crippling snow drifts of up to FIVE METRES  ground swathes of the country to a standstill while the armed services were drafted in to drop emergency air supplies to stranded communities.

In a terrifying similarity to this year, the killer whiteout of 1947 started with suspiciously mild conditions persisting into early winter.

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Winter weather: Britain is set for a freezing drop in temperatures

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Britain is facing a strongly negative Arctic oscillation as we head into December

Worried experts have warned Britons not to be lulled into a false sense of security by the current benign conditions.

The very latest weather models show a unique set of circumstances coming together to create an extreme whiteout driven by violent snowstorms.

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) this winter are main driving factors.

Both phenomenon are governed by atmospheric sea pressure and when in a negative phase they allow cold air to flow in from the East - the so called blocking effect.

Mr Madden said due to recent warming in the Earth’s stratosphere, both the NAO and AO are “excessively” low pointing towards a severe freeze.

A separate measure derived from air flow patterns in the upper atmosphere called the October Pattern Index (OPI ) also points towards a negative Arctic Oscillation.

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Forecasters have warned Britain could be facing a severe drop in temperatures

The resulting weak jet stream, which usually holds the cold at bay over the North Pole, will give way to a blast of freezing air which will sweep across the UK.

The OPI was devised by scientists Riccardo Valente and Professor Judah Cohen with this year’s readings dangerously similar to those taken during the catastrophic winter of 2009/10 - the coldest in 31 years.

Experts say a crippling big freeze could be as close as the middle of this month and has the potential to last until spring.

Mr Madden said: “The important pieces are now becoming grouped together to form blocking episodes throughout the second half of November and the upcoming winter period.

“This is reflected upon with the obliterated Polar Vortex and the downward trend of the 'excessively abnormal' Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) values, due to recent stratospheric warming and higher than normal pressure across the Arctic region.

“When the AO is in its negative phase, it allows for an easier intrusion of cold Arctic air to lower latitudes such as the UK.

“When the closely related NAO is also in a negative phase, it allows for cold easterly winds and much cold winters to develop.”

He said heavy early snow over Siberia is another indicator that Britain could be in for a mega-freeze.

He said: “The impressive Siberian snow cover for this year also offers a high correlation for a negative AO throughout much of the upcoming winter and into next spring.

“We can therefore expect a significant amount of colder intrusions and prolonged diversions of the jet stream/blocking within this period.

“The majority of weather models are now also starting to support a cold easterly/north-easterly developing for next week, and if we combine this with a number of other factors this is likely to bring a number of potentially widespread snow events and much colder weather at times throughout the second half of November and into early/mid December.

“As we progress throughout this period we are also likely to see widespread frosts and stubborn fog patches becoming more of a frequent feature as blocking becomes more prominent.

“A number of frequent and large-scale low pressure systems are also likely to attack our shores throughout the winter period of December to February.

“The air mass is likely to be cold enough across the country for this to fall and accumulate as snow from parts of the far north to parts of the far south.

“January and into February are likely to offer some potentially severe cold spells of weather and significant snow for many parts of the country, and this is when winter will begin to take even more of a stronghold this year.”

Experts have warned elderly and vulnerable people not to be lulled into a false sense of security by the current mild weather.

Latest figures for winter deaths from the Office for National Statistics show there were around 31,100 excess winter deaths in 2012-13 - a 29-per cent increase on the previous year
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Long-range weather forecasts have suggested this winter could be particularly bitter

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Frost is expected across Britain

Malcolm Booth, chief executive of the National Federation of Occupational Pensioners, said: “The peculiar weather patterns that we are seeing may lull people into a flaw sense of security and they won’t protect themselves in terms of day to day life and flu jabs.

“The last set of winter death figures showed an increase which is concerning, if this year is particularly harsh they could be even worse, particularly with the increase in the cost of heating.”

A major Arctic freeze would follow what turned out last year to be the wettest and one of the mildest winters since records began in 1910.

However Britain was blighted by storms with 12 major events recorded between mid December and early January, according to the Met Office.

A mean temperature of 5.2C (41F) across the UK was well above normal with the mercury dropping to just -7.7C (18F) in Altnaharra, Sutherland, having fallen lower every year for the previous 50 years
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The drop in temperatures will come as a shock to many

If temperature records are broken this year as experts suggest, then thermometers could plunge below the -27.7C (-17F) recorded in Braemar, Scotland, on January 10, 1982.

Netweather said there is likely to be a “cold heart” to winter this year with above average snowfall in parts and frequent winter storms.

Its long-range winter forecast states: “A cold heart to the winter with January likely to be colder than average due to an increased likelihood of an SSW (Sudden stratospheric warming) occurring.

“Precipitation close to or slightly above average overall.

“Tendency for storm tracks taking a more southerly route across the UK -therefore potential for a significant wind event affecting the bulk of the UK.

“Above average hill snow for Scotland.”

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This winter could rival the historic winter of 1947

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Britain could face heavy snow

However as is the nature of weather forecasting not all models agree and the Met Office outlook paints a less chilly picture.

A spokesman said: “Our latest three-month outlook suggests an increased risk of milder and wetter than average conditions for the period November-December-January based on our seasonal forecasts and those from other leading centres around the world.

“However, there are still substantial probabilities that either average or cool/dry conditions may occur.

“This is because there are many competing factors that determine what our weather will be like in the coming months.”