Ukraine update - 09/03/2014

The situation in Ukraine is extremely unstable - to see the very least. Last night Poroshenko tweeted taht he had agreed on a permanent ceasefire.  Within the hour this was reneged on. The new wording from Poroshenko’s office talks of a ceasefire “regime”.

This could be a ruse on the part of the Kiev regime to buy time and even to allow NATO to fight the war on their behalf.

It seems that while Poroshenko was talking this was rejected by PM Yatsenyuk.  Who knows who is in charge in Kieve?Where are the Right Sector et al.in all this?  I have even heard an unsubstantiated rumor that there has been a coup.

Expect for events to move very quickly and for there to be a lot of smoke and mirrors.

I fear the worst.

Ukraine ceasefire: Putin lays out 7-step plan to stop hostilities in E. Ukraine

RT,

3 September, 2014

Kiev must withdraw troops from southeastern regions of Ukraine and rebels must stop offensive to stop bloodshed, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin says. He and Ukrainian leader Petro Poroshenko discussed "a ceasefire regime."

READ MORE: Kiev retracts 'permanent' ceasefire statement, says steps for establishing peace agreed

President Putin has outlined a seven-point plan to stabilize the situation in the crisis-torn east of Ukraine.

“On my way here from [the city of] Blagoveschensk to Ulan-Bator [Mongolia], I outlined some ideas and plan of actions. It’s here, but in handwriting,” Putin told reporters.

1. Militias should cease military advances in the Donetsk and Lugansk Regions.

2. Pro-Kiev armed forces should withdraw to a distance that excludes the possibility of shelling settlements.

3. Implement full and objective international control over ceasefire observation and monitoring.

4. Exclude the use of combat aircraft against civilians and villages.

5. Prisoner/captive-exchange via an ‘all-in-all’ formula, without preconditions.

6. Humanitarian corridors for refugees movement and delivery of humanitarian aid across Donetsk and Lugansk Regions.

7. Direct repair-crew access to destroyed social and transit infrastructure with supportive aid.

Putin expressed hope that final agreements between Kiev and militia in southeastern Ukraine could be reached and secured at the coming meeting of the so-called contact group on September 5.

“I hope the leaders of Ukraine will support the anticipated progress in bilateral relations,” Russia’s president said.

He called on Ukraine to take an active part in the work of the contact group “for a final and comprehensive settlement of the situation in the southeastern Ukraine, of course, with full and unconditional assurance of the legitimate rights of the people who live there.”

Commenting on the phone call with the Ukrainian president earlier on Wednesday, Putin stressed that their “views on ways to resolve the conflict are aligned.”

Later on Wednesday, the Ukrainian president expressed “great hope” that the peace process will start negotiations in Minsk on Friday.

“The first task is peace,” Poroshenko said. “Today at 5am, because of the time difference, we talked with President Putin about ways we could stop this horrible process. It is impossible to deny that people should being killed,” he added. The Ukrainian President stressed that all Ukrainians want peace and that is why he will strive for it.

Anti-Kiev militias say they are ready to lay down arms, but only if the same is done by all the government units fighting in the east of the country, said DPR Prime Minister Aleksandr Zakharchenko.

The political leader of the self-proclaimed republic noted that Kiev will have to obtain compliance from irregulars, such as Right Sector volunteer battalions, and mercenaries, who are also fighting on the side of the government.

“These have previously sabotaged existing deals,” said Zakharchenko.

The DPR leader said that the recent upturn in the rebels’ fortunes would improve the chances of striking a deal with Petro Poroshenko’s government.

Germany has supported the news that the two presidents are showing willingness to resolve the conflict, saying that Germany and the International community are ready to assist measures aimed at securing the ceasefire.

“Presidents Poroshenko and Putin are bearing responsibility not only for their nations, but all Europe,” German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said in Hamburg. He stressed that now it is important to take decisive steps to establish a ceasefire in Ukraine.

“We are ready to assist this path via either repeating the meeting in Geneva or through other international formats,” he added.

In Ukraine, meanwhile, Putin’s peace plan was met with criticism from the country’s prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenuk, who said that Russia’s real plan is to destroy Ukraine and restore the USSR.

"We are waiting for decisions from NATO and the EU on how to stop the aggressor,” he said.

In Yatsenuk’s opinion, Putin’s 7-point plan is “an attempt of eyewash for the International community ahead of NATO summit and an attempt to avoid inevitable decisions from the EU on the new wave of sanctions against Russia.”

The “best” for Ukraine would be a one-point plan, Yatsenuk stressed, which is the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.

“And then there will be peace,” the PM said.

Russia has repeatedly denied accusations of direct military involvement in the conflict.

So far, attempts at temporary ceasefires between Kiev and self-defense forces in the past months have failed to bring about any improvement in the situation in southeastern Ukraine. Each time fighting has continued, with both sides blaming each other for breaking the truce.

2,593 people have died in fighting in eastern Ukraine since mid-April, the UN reported last week.

The military conflict that started this spring has displaced over a million Ukrainians, with the majority of them finding refuge in Russia

Here is the latest from Peter Lavelle and his panel

CrossTalk: Kiev in Retreat

Ukraine's civil war has grounded in stalemate and the economy is crashing. This has created an opening for dialogue. Will all parties seize the moment or will Moscow continue to be blamed?

CrossTalking with Karel van Wolferen, Neil Clark and Gilbert Doctorow.

This is what Ukraine Today says about the matter

While Putin and Poroshenko talk the NATO warmongers meet in Wales and continue with their war plans.

Whatever Putin comes up with it won't be good enough for Washington. We've seen it before - a peace plan is put forward and rejected because Putin can't be trusted - but unless he makes peace sanctions - and war plans will continue.

Obama hints at NATO membership for Ukraine, urges military support

RT,

3 September, 2014

Barack Obama says the “door to NATO membership will remain open” for new members, while also urging the organization to help strengthen Ukraine’s military. Germany has promised to send non-lethal aid, such as bullet proof vests and medical supplies.

Speaking in Estonia, Obama did not explicitly point to Ukraine when referring to expanding NATO membership to other nations. However, the underlying message was clear for all to see, as he accused Russia of a “brazen assault” on Ukraine.

"And we must reaffirm the principle that has always guided our alliance, for countries that meet our standards and that can make meaningful contributions to allied security, the door to NATO membership will remain open," the US President said, after meeting the leaders of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, who are all NATO members, Reuters reported.

Obama’s comments came after Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk said he wanted his country to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization saying, "Russia is a terrorist state, it is an aggressor state and will bear responsibility under international law."

"Concerning NATO, I consider the most correct decision would be to accept Ukraine as a member of NATO," Ukraine’s prime minister added.



Under the NATO treaty, an attack on any individual NATO state would be treated as an attack on all alliance members.

In a reference that is likely to stoke tensions further with Russia, Obama said that NATO needs to give Ukraine, as well as other former Soviet states as much support as possible.

"NATO must make concrete commitments to help Ukraine modernize and strengthen its security forces. We must do more to help other NATO partners, including Georgia and Moldova, strengthen their defenses as well," he said in a speech to a packed concert hall in the Estonian capital.

On Monday NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said he expects Ukraine to abandon its non-aligned status following elections on October 26, which would leave it free to join the organization.

"I understand that the current political leadership in Kiev envisages that the new parliament after the parliamentary election in Ukraine will change the legislation on non-alliance status," Rasmussen told a press conference in Brussels.

Full NATO membership for Ukraine akin to lunacy –expert

However, not everyone believes that Ukraine’s desire to join NATO is a sound one. William Engdahl, a geopolitical expert who spoke to RT, said there is a difference of interests between President Petro Poroshenko, who has business interests in the east of Ukraine and Yatsenyuk, who has close links with Washington and the Ukrainian nationalists.

In Engdahl’s view, Yatsenyuk’s talk of full NATO membership for Ukraine is “akin to lunacy.”

His thoughts were shared by the Czech Republic Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka, who said at the weekend, “Ukraine is not ready for EU membership, not ready for NATO membership… Both organizations should be giving realistic hopes to Ukraine,” the politician told Czech broadcasters.

"If the Ukrainian side sees President Petro Poroshenko’s peace settlement plan as a path to successful solution to the crisis, then it cannot accompany it with ideas of Ukraine’s membership in NATO and the EU," Sobotka added, according to RIA Novosti.

Chancellor Merkel to “personally oversee” transfer of non-lethal aid to Ukraine

Meanwhile, Germany says it will send protective equipment and medical aid to the Ukrainian army, according to a government spokeswoman. She added that Chancellor Angela Merkel will “personally oversee” the transfer of 20,000 bullet-proof vests, mobile hospitals and medical supplies, according to the German news agency, DPA

"The German government has several requests to export protective gear for Ukrainian armed forces. Departments have already concluded the assessment with a positive outcome," said the spokeswoman, according to Reuters.


However, the country has ruled out sending any arms to Ukraine, with Chancellor Merkel adding there will be no military solution to the crisis.