The likeligood of a ceasefire holding

Comments on ceasefire – Vladimir Suchan

Speaking of the ceasefire in Donbass, which, I suspect, will most likely be only partial, the question is whether the Kiev junta traded sparing lives of its troops in several cauldrons for 1) ceding territory to Novorossiya or/and 2) ceasing to shell the cities of Donbass. The other two immediate questions of great importance is the question of the Donetsk airport (with numerous foreign special forces soldiers fighting for the junta) and the question of Mariupol. A very telling and significant is the fact that none of the sides has a desire to publish the text of the ceasefire agreement.

In his press conference with the Kyrgyz Foreign Minister, Lavrov correctly identified the US and the Kiev junta as "the party of war." In the current temporary situation, the US, Kiev, and NATO are, however, facing the consequence of the recent crushing military defeats in Donbass and the deepening economic and political crisis in the former Ukraine. In this situation, the dilemma of the war party is whether to try to crush Novorossiya, as they have been trying to so far, or whether to freeze the conflict and consolidate the power of the Nazi junta over the rest of Ukraine, while also consolidating the US and NATO's hold over this vast "bridgehead" into Russia. So far, on the part of the US and NATO, the war party was driving the policy. The Right Sector or other Nazi battalions are also for firm.

In this regard, it is already obvious that these Nazi battalions under Avakov are trained much like ISIS or al Nusra in Syria and Iraq--as special forces elevated and expanded into brigades and armies. As such, they were/are to be no match for "opposing peasants."

All in all, it is, however, evident that the ceasefire is most advantageous to the Kiev junta and the war party. It allows them to save themselves from a looming decisive defeat. The ceasefire can allow them to reset the war.

If one is to take Lavrov's statements literally, then Lavrov's and Russia's position is that stopping or freezing violence is the most important thing irrespective of the political or other security considerations, which, if one is to be guided only or mainly by what Lavrov said, then then political cause of Donbass is merely a question of knowing what taxes the people of Donbass are to be paying and the question of the Russian language.

---Vladimir Suchan

Here is Ukraine Today, which seems to specialise in 1 minute propaganda segments, rather than news announcing the ceasefire

Ukraine Ceasefire Agreed: Ukrainian officials sign deal with Russia and Kremlin-backed insurgents

I'm not sure if Yats, PM of the Junta is one with Poroshenko. Here are his Facebook comments

There is no discussion and no doubts that Ukraine needs peace. This peace has to be restored. But it's important to know, what is the price for the peace. We have paid too much in this war that Russia had started. It is impossible to estimate the value for the loss of human life. The life of people who fought and are fighting for our independence, our country, has no price.That's why we need peace, but not on the basis of the Russian plan - we need it on the basis of the Ukrainian plan, which has to be backed by the USA and the EU as our real allies.

First of all, this plan has to include three basic points. The first one is the ceasefire. The second one is to withdraw the Russian army, Russian criminals and terrorists. And the third one is to restore control over the border. The border between Ukraine and Russia has to have a proper infrastructure. And that's why the Government developed the project called "The Wall". It is the question not only of Ukraine's security. It is the question of Europe's security. Therefore, it means to build infrastructure at the eastern border of Europe.


He also posted his plans for a wall on the border with Russia

Do you think the nazi Right Sector is going to honour a truce?!
Here is report from the Novorussia militias

05.09.14. Message from bloggers.

"Right-wing gangs are not going to obey the order Poroshenko armistice. This was stated by the journalist specified wing Elena Belozerskaya, arguing this position failure Poroshenko to consider them legitimate military formation. Political scientist Vladimir Kornilov, quoting a Nazi in the social network, warns where to look for a rifle that will shoot first. "A truce, you say? And Donetsk shamelessly continue to shoot. In particular, prowazeki proudly announced that operate directly under Donetsk. And when the speaker of "the Right sector" Has Bilozerska asked about the truce, here is what she said in her blog: "He (Poroshenko) we are not legalized until now... If you want we carried out their orders, let us first legalised. And there's no official status, we de jure illegal armed groups (illegal military formation), the usual gang, and you can do whatever you want."

Speaking of the ceasefire in Donbass, which, I suspect, will most likely be only partial, the question is whether the Kiev junta traded sparing lives of its troops in several cauldrons for 1) ceding territory to Novorossiya or/and 2) ceasing to shell the cities of Donbass. The other two immediate questions of great importance is the question of the Donetsk airport (with numerous foreign special forces soldiers fighting for the junta) and the question of Mariupol. A very telling and significant is the fact that none of the sides has a desire to publish the text of the ceasefire agreement.

In his press conference with the Kyrgyz Foreign Minister, Lavrov correctly identified the US and the Kiev junta as "the party of war." In the current temporary situation, the US, Kiev, and NATO are, however, facing the consequence of the recent crushing military defeats in Donbass and the deepening economic and political crisis in the former Ukraine. In this situation, the dilemma of the war party is whether to try to crush Novorossiya, as they have been trying to so far, or whether to freeze the conflict and consolidate the power of the Nazi junta over the rest of Ukraine, while also consolidating the US and NATO's hold over this vast "bridgehead" into Russia. So far, on the part of the US and NATO, the war party was driving the policy. The Right Sector or other Nazi battalions are also for firm.

In this regard, it is already obvious that these Nazi battalions under Avakov are trained much like ISIS or al Nusra in Syria and Iraq--as special forces elevated and expanded into brigades and armies. As such, they were/are to be no match for "opposing peasants."

All in all, it is, however, evident that the ceasefire is most advantageous to the Kiev junta and the war party. It allows them to save themselves from a looming decisive defeat. The ceasefire can allow them to reset the war.

If one is to take Lavrov's statements literally, then Lavrov's and Russia's position is that stopping or freezing violence is the most important thing irrespective of the political or other security considerations, which, if one is to be guided only or mainly by what Lavrov said, then then political cause of Donbass is merely a question of knowing what taxes the people of Donbass are to be paying and the question of the Russian language

Сводки от ополчения Новороссии

05.09.14. Сообщение от блогеров.

"Праворадикальные банды не намерены подчиняться приказу Порошенко о перемирии. Об этом заявила журналистка указанного толка Елена Белозерская, аргументируя такую позицию отказом Порошенко считать их законным военным формированием. Политолог Владимир Корнилов, цитируя нацистку в соцсети, предупреждает, где искать ружьё, которое выстрелит первым. "Перемирие, говорите? А по Донецку продолжают безбожно палить. В частности, правосеки гордо сообщили, что оперируют непосредственно под Донецком. А когда глашатая "Правого сектора" Олену Билозерську спросили о перемирии, вот что она ответила в своем блоге: "Он же (Порошенко) нас не легализовал до сих пор... Если хотят, чтобы мы выполняли их приказы, пусть сперва нас легализуют. А пока нет официального статуса - мы де-юре НВФ (незаконное военное формирование), обычная банда, и можем делать, что захотим".