Heat,
Wind Ahead of Pacific Storm Spikes King Fire Hazard; Potential
Blocking Pattern Shift Underway
(King Fire Complex fanned by strong, hot southwesterly flow on September 23, 2014 — a rising fire danger through Thursday in advance of an approaching Pacific storm system. Image source: LANCE-MODIS.)
23 September, 2014
A
powerful storm system off the US and Canadian Northwest Coasts may
deliver much-needed rains to central and northern California by
Thursday — but not before pulling warm, dry winds up from the south
in advance of the storm’s approach. The heat and winds, expected to
reach 15-25 mph later today, will heighten danger for the over 7,400
firefighters already battling the 90,000 acre King Fire.
As
of earlier today, the fire was 35% contained after the army of
firefighters, aided by a spate of mountain drizzle, tirelessly worked
through the weekend to staunch the blaze. But the new in-rush of hot,
dry winds today and tomorrow will fan the still energetic wildfire,
increasing the threat to more than 21,000 structures ringing the
fire’s edge.
Already,
ten people have suffered injuries and 32 structures were destroyed
even as 2,700 people are currently evacuated from areas most
vulnerable to the still-raging fire. Given the influx of more
dangerous conditions, fire fighting personnel will be hard pressed to
prevent further damage from an already costly and harmful blaze.
(Strong storm approaches the Western US as the ridge and associated blocking high shift eastward. Change in year and half long blocking pattern? Image source: NOAA-GOES.)
Fire
Amidst Record Drought
The
King Fire erupted in Central and Eastern California during mid
September as century scale drought conditions continued to scorch the
state. As of today, more than 50% of the state remains under the most
extreme drought level with 100 percent of California suffering from
some degree of drought.
This
past weekend’s light rains did little to help. However, a
strengthening storm track in the Pacific is likely to deliver at
least some moisture to Northern and Central California by Thursday. A
blocking high pressure ridge that has persisted off the US West Coast
for more than a year and a half has also shifted — moving inland
toward the Central and Western US. This shift appears to be slowly
opening the door to some moisture for California.
(University of Maine Jet Stream modeling shows an eastward shift in the year and a half long blocking pattern and associated ridge over Western North America and the Northeastern Pacific. In today’s graphic, the ridge has shifted into the Central US with associated Rossby-Wave type troughs over both the Eastern US and Eastern Pacific. Notably both troughs now host powerful storm systems in the range of 975 mb and lower. Image source: University of Maine.)
An
atmospheric pattern more favorable for El Nino development may also
be favoring increased precipitation for California. However, it is
still too early to determine whether a pattern favoring drought
reduction is firmly in place.
Conditions
in Context
Under
the current rapid and powerfully enhancing regime of human-caused
heating of the Earth’s oceans, ice, and atmosphere, we can expect
the US West and Southwest to continue to dry as the storm track
shifts northward and as rising temperatures bake more and more of the
moisture out of the soil. A significant increase in the occurrence of
drought in the US Southwest since the 1970s is likely a part of this
larger trend, one that will almost certainly worsen as human-caused
climate change intensifies.
In
addition, an increasing eccentricity in the Jet Stream associated
with Northern Hemisphere polar heat amplification has resulted in far
more persistent weather patterns. Dome scientific studies have found
that these patterns, associated with powerful Rossby-type wave
patterns in the Jet Stream, have appeared with increasing frequency
since the mid 2000s. As a result, cooler stormier patterns tend to
persist in one region while dry, hot conditions have tended to
persist in other regions. This new climate regime appears to be
enhancing an already amplified drought pattern for the US West even
as it has pumped up storm patterns for regions east and north. It is
also worth noting that a number of studies have also found a link
between major sea ice losses in the Arctic since 2007 and the
intensity of the current California drought.
Links:
More
than 3,000 flee King
fire in California
By
Evan Blake
WSWS,
23
September, 2014
Since
it began September 13, the King fire, centered in El Dorado County
and Placer County, California, has spread rapidly through the Sierra
Nevada mountain region. The fire threatens roughly 12,000 homes and a
total of 21,000 structures in this forested area to the east of
Sacramento. More than 3,000 people have fled their homes so far. As
of this writing, the fire is blazing through more than 82,000 acres,
or nearly 130 square miles, which is larger than the city of
Sacramento, with only 17 percent of the fire contained.
The
fire has destroyed 10 residences and 22 other structures in the White
Meadows area of El Dorado County. Property damage estimates are
difficult to determine in other cities due to the dangerous
conditions. Air pollution stemming from the fire has reached the
rarely seen “hazardous” level throughout much of the region west
of Lake Tahoe, canceling an Ironman Triathlon scheduled for this
weekend.
Over
5,200 firefighters, who have flown in from as far as Florida, North
Carolina, Arkansas, Idaho, Montana, Utah and Alaska, have been
battling the fire around the clock. Until now, the fire has grown by
an average of 4,000 acres every 12 hours, and officials are worried
that increased wind early this week might provide further fuel for
the already immense blaze.
Police
are reporting that the fire was started by arson. Wayne Allen
Huntsman was arrested and has pled not guilty to the felony charge of
starting the week-old fire. Huntsman is being held on $10 million
bail. California Governor Jerry Brown seized on the charges against
Huntsman to sign a bill greatly enlarging the penalties imposed for
some arson fires. The bill will re-impose a measure that lapsed
January 1 that allows for sentences of 10 years to life for
aggravated arson, or arson causing $7 million in damage, including
firefighting costs.
The
state and the news media are seeking to place the blame for the
severe wildfire exclusively on the individual who has been deemed
responsible for its outbreak.
Increasingly
destructive weather phenomena such as California’s historic drought
have taken their toll. While the environmental impacts of global
warming are known to be enormous, the major world powers, above all
the US government, have actively opposed any serious attempts to
address the expanding crisis.
The
drought in California, which is in its third year, has made 2014 the
driest year in the last 500 years. The drought reached a
qualitatively new level during the past month. In the first week of
August, the percentage of the state falling under the US Drought
Monitor’s highest category “exceptional drought” jumped from
36.49 percent to 58.41 percent, where it has remained since. The
majority of northern California was bumped from “extreme” to
“exceptional,” which now defines the entire Central Valley
region, the heartland of California’s agricultural industries, and
most of the northern Sierra Nevada mountain range where the King fire
is localized.
Compounding
the effects of the drought are historic heat levels for the year,
with January-July temperatures breaking the previous record by an
average of 1.4 degrees, about 5 degrees above average for these
months. Hotter temperatures augment the effects of a drought by
reducing mountain snowpack and increasing evaporation from streams
and reservoirs, while simultaneously absorbing moisture from trees,
plants and soils. The heat increases the amount of water normally
needed to irrigate crops and vegetation, and creates the
prerequisites for immense wildfires such as the King fire to erupt
and spread more rapidly.
The
increased heat causes evaporation and dries the land, which in turn
reflects more heat upwards, further raising temperatures in a
feedback loop manner. As climatologist Kevin Trenberth noted, “The
extra heat from the increase in heat trapping gases in the atmosphere
over six months is equivalent to running a small microwave oven at
full power for about half an hour over every square foot of the land
under the drought.”
The
ongoing drought is the most recent of many expressions of the
deepened state of climate change, itself caused by the irrational and
unplanned nature of production under capitalism. The increasing
frequency of extreme weather events, including droughts, heat waves,
wildfires, flooding and hurricanes, are undeniably attributable to
broader changes in global climate.
In
the city of East Porterville (population 7,300) in Tulare County,
over 300 homes have completely run out of water and are relying upon
an emergency water bottle delivery service set up by a local
resident, who has taken out a loan to pay for the bottled water. In a
recent report by the US Drought Monitor, all of the top 10 cities in
the country most likely to run out of water were located in
California, most in the Central Valley. In the cities of Lemoore,
Willits, and others across the state, there have been reports of
people deemed “water bandits,” accused of siphoning water from
fire hydrants and other sources.
The
National Interagency Fire Center issued a bulletin last week that
warned of continuing “extreme fire behavior,” with Southern
California’s peak wildfire season still in the offing. “Expect
fires to ignite easier and spread faster due to low live and dead
fuel moistures,” the advisory warned, adding that “local and
incoming fire personnel need to be aware that fire behavior is
exceeding normal expectations for this time of year.”
Last
week, the small but intense Boles fire that erupted in Weed,
California, palpably demonstrated these dangers. That blaze, one of
the smallest of the year at 479 acres, erupted so rapidly that it
became the year’s most destructive so far, destroying 143 homes.
The
King fire is by far the largest of roughly a dozen wildfires
currently raging across the state. Another fire that destroyed 37
homes near Yosemite National Park has been 93 percent contained. More
than 7,800 firefighters from across the country are working to
contain these fires throughout the state. Cal Fire director Ken
Pimlott has expressed concern with the strenuous demands placed upon
firefighters, as budget cuts have diminished their numbers to a
noticeable degree during this drought year's intense fire season.
“Nothing
is going to change until it rains,” Pimlott said. “And I mean
significant rain.” Forecasts show that the drought will likely
continue in the coming years, further compounding the crippling
strains on fire departments statewide, and causing the output of the
state’s enormous agricultural industries to dwindle.
The
author also recommends:
Tom Hartmann and Leo De Carprio tell it like it is and mention the Methane word numerous times. They speak of the Permian mass extinction, 6degree C and the fact that we are not going to meet even that very conservative target.
As we stare down the barrel of 6C everything is soon to change.
---Kevin Hester
The Big Picture
Can
We Save Humans From
the Greatest Threat Ever?
As
Climate Week marches on - a new report suggests it's likely that the
2 degrees Celsius global warming ceiling
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