It is not difficult to see where this can come unstuck very quickly.
Firstly, the Ukrainian army could use this to regroup and consolidate forces, possibly with NATO support;
Secondly, even if Poroshenko is serious about this the proliferation of militias controlled by nationalist groups like Right Sector are not;
Thirdly, as all this is going on NATO is fanning the flames of war and saying that it is "conditional" on Russia coming to the party (ho hum - who helped to negotiate the ceasefire?)
Already we are seeing a few tweets such as the following -
Kiev,
E. Ukraine militia agree on ceasefire starting 1500 GMT Friday
Firstly, the Ukrainian army could use this to regroup and consolidate forces, possibly with NATO support;
Secondly, even if Poroshenko is serious about this the proliferation of militias controlled by nationalist groups like Right Sector are not;
Thirdly, as all this is going on NATO is fanning the flames of war and saying that it is "conditional" on Russia coming to the party (ho hum - who helped to negotiate the ceasefire?)
Already we are seeing a few tweets such as the following -
sLAVa
Ceasefire is over in #Donetsk. After midnight automatic gunfire is heard in the center of the city
#Ukraine We accept the ceasefire but we must prepared with new recruits, form new units, train crews for tanks.Yarosh leader of Right Sector
5
September, 2014
Kiev
officials and representatives of the two self-proclaimed republics in
southeastern Ukraine have agreed to a ceasefire, as the contact group
met behind closed doors in Belarus.
The
two sides accompanied by representatives of Russia and the OSCE were
meeting in the Belorussian capital, Minsk, in an attempt to end the
bloodshed in eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian
President Petro Poroshenko, who is now in Wales for the NATO summit,
has confirmed the ceasefire agreement on his Twitter account.
He
has ordered the pro-government forces to stop military actions
starting 6 pm local time (15:00 GMT), as stated in the protocol.
“I
give the order to the chief of the General staff of the Ukrainian
Armed Forces to cease fire, starting from 18.00 [local time] on
September 5,” Poroshenko's
statement says.
He
has called on both the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry and the OSCE to
provide international monitoring of compliance with the bilateral
ceasefire.
“We
must do everything possible and impossible to stop bloodshed and put
an end to people’s suffering,” the
president said in a statement posted on his official website.
He
also expressed hope that both sides would follow the protocol.
Shortly
after signing the agreement with Kiev, Representatives of the rebel
forces promised to obey the ceasefire if Kiev follows suit. Both
Donetsk and Lugansk have said they are ready to lay down arms
starting from 15:00GMT.
“Most
of the points of the protocol correspond with our demands,” Lugansk’s
leader Igor Plotnitsky said. “However,
the ceasefire does not mean a shift from our course of breaking away
from Ukraine. This is a compulsory measure,” he
said.
At
15:00 GMT, Ukraine's National Security Council (SNBO) reported that
its troops had halted all military actions.
“According
to the decision of the President of Ukraine and the order of the
chief of the General staff of the military units of Ukraine, troops
in the area of anti-terrorist operations ceased fire at 15.00
GMT,”Lysenko
said.
Rebels’
forces have also issued the same order.
“In
the execution of the Minsk agreements we stopped fighting at 18:00.
This decision has been communicated to all departments,” RIA
Novosti reported.
With
the conflict engulfing the southeastern Ukraine, the region is
risking facing an imminent humanitarian catastrophe. Water and
electricity supplies have been disrupted, leaving dozens of people
without basic essentials. In Lugansk only one hospital appeared to be
operational, the OSCE’s Special Monitoring Mission reported earlier
this week.
Since
the conflict significantly deteriorated in mid-April, 2,593 people
have died in fighting in the east of the country, the UN reported
last week. More than 6,033 have been wounded in the turmoil.
The
number of internally displaced Ukrainians has reached 260,000, with
another 814,000 finding refuge in Russia, the UN said.
Hours
before the ceasefire, shelling was reported in Donetsk and there were
reports of heavy fighting outside Mariupol, where over two days seven
civilians including two children, were killed.
OSCE:
'Good news'
The
OSCE’s Heidi Tagliavini has welcomed the agreement saying “it
is good news.”
She
has revealed that the protocol consists of 12 points, and “the
ceasefire is the chief one.” However,
she has not clarified the remaining 11 points.
Journalists
have managed to obtain more details from their sources, but this
information could not be immediately confirmed.
President
Poroshenko also commented on one of the points of the protocol –
“all to all” exchange of prisoners, which he said can take
place “soon, maybe
tomorrow.”
Russia
has welcomed the ceasefire agreement, Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry
Peskov said.
“Moscow
hopes that all provisions of the document and agreements reached will
be carefully executed by the parties, as well as the continuation of
the negotiation process for full settlement of the crisis in
Ukraine,” Peskov
said in a statement.
The
participants in the talks will prepare another document - a
memorandum on settling the situation in Ukraine, a Donetsk
representative said.
In
their recent phone call on September 3, the presidents of Russia and
Ukraine, Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko, showed a willingness to
find an agreement to resolve the months-long conflict in the
southeastern Ukraine.
Following
the conversation with his counterpart, President Putin laid out
a seven-point
plan that
could help find a solution.
Ukraine, Separatists Agree On Cease-Fire; EU May Suspend Sanctions
5
September, 2014
UPDATE:
So far no good...*HEAVY
ARTILLERY BLASTS HEARD IN UKRAINE'S MARIUPOL: RIA
While
we had grown weary of trashed truces and snapped cease-fires in
Israel, it appears, according to Interfax, that Ukraine and the
pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine (having gained notably
over the army in recent days) have agreed a cease-fire:
- *UKRAINE, SEPARATISTS AGREE ON CEASE-FIRE FROM 6PM TODAY: IFX
- *POROSHENKO: PRELIM. PROTOCOL TO CEASE-FIRE SIGNED IN MINSK: BBC
Great
news, especially for Merkel (and Hollande) who has already come out
and noted that the cease-fire
means EU could suspend sanctions (saving
face and avoiding some further escalation). The question is - how
much of Putin's 7-point-peace-plan will Ukraine acquiesce to? If any?
As
WaPo notes,
Poroshenko did not specifically address the “Putin plan,” as it was dubbed by the Kremlin, but he said that the time had come to end the conflict.
“The first task is peace,” Poroshenko said in a statement. “Today at 5 a.m. I spoke to President Putin about how we can stop this horrible process. There is no denying that people must stop dying.”
As
The BBC reports,
“Ukrainian President says preliminary protocol to a ceasefire agreement has been signed in Minsk. Hope that ceasefire might start later”
- GOVERNOR OF UKRAINE'S DONETSK REGION CONFIRMS UKRAINE PEACE PLAN SIGNED, AWAITING DETAILS OF PLAN
- *UKRAINE REBELS READY TO STOP FIGHTING: PLOTNITSKY
As
DPA adds,
Ukrainian government representatives and leaders of the pro-Russian separatists in the country's east sign a bilateral ceasefire agreement that goes into force later Friday, the Interfax news agency reports exclusively.
The 14-point agreement also regulates the monitoring of the ceasefire and prisoner exchanges. It was signed after almost two hours of talks in the Belarusian capital Minsk.
The
self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic has confirmed the
ceasefire agreement on its official Twitter account.
European
leaders are happy (for now)
- *MERKEL SAYS VERIFIED CEASE-FIRE COULD SUSPEND ANY SANCTIONS
- *MERKEL: ANY FURTHER RUSSIA SANCTIONS COULD BE SUSPENDED AGAIN
- *MERKEL SAYS EU SANCTIONS THREAT REMAINS IN FORCE
But
as Bloomberg's Leonid Bershidsky notes,
"All these sanctions were like poultices for a dead man," a distraught Yatsenyuk said today. "They did not help." He called for the West to freeze Russia's assets and financial transactions to force it to withdraw. The West, however, is unlikely to go that far. The sanctions have already contributed to economic contraction in Germany, and Europe cannot afford much more pain. Military aid is not an option: There is no country in the world where voters would back a war with Russia.
The Western world will probably wiggle out of its moral dilemma by blaming Poroshenko for being deaf to Russia's legitimate concerns about preserving Ukraine's status as a buffer state. No matter how unfair that sounds, Ukraine is now faced with the necessity of making concessions to Putin. It will take some time to sink in, but help of the kind Kiev really needs is probably not coming. Unless Poroshenko finds it in himself to bargain, eastern Ukraine may well end up a Russian-controlled no man's land like Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria.There is no face-saving solution for anyone anymore.
* *
*
My international negotiations in Brussels and Minsk demonstrated a powerful request for peaceful political-diplomatic settlement of the conflict in the Donbas. The same mood dominated during my meetings with global leaders at the NATO Summit in Wales.
The entire world strives for peace, the entire Ukraine strives for peace, including millions of Donbas residents.
The highest value is human life. We must do everything possible and impossible to terminate bloodshed and put an end to people's suffering.
Taking into account the call for ceasefire of President of Russia Vladimir Putin addressed to the heads of illegal armed groups of the Donbas and the signature of the protocol at the meeting of Trilateral contact group on the implementation of the Peace plan of the President of Ukraine, I order the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to cease fire starting from 18:00, September 5.
I also instruct the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine to ensure jointly with the OSCE an efficient international control over the compliance with the ceasefire regime which must be exclusively bilateral.
I hope that these agreements, including ceasefire and liberation of hostages, will be strictly observed.
*
* *
Extend
the process with no further sanctions until the winter, then Russia
is in charge and holds all the leverage... perhaps that's why the
market is not exuberantly rallying on this apparent de-escalation.
Ukraine’s president must personally control observance of ceasefire - Pushkov
Donetsk
and Lugansk, the capital cities of self-proclaimed people’s
republics, should discuss their future with Kiev, the head of the
State Duma’s international affairs committee said
5
September, 2014
MOSCOW,
September 06, /ITAR-TASS/. A senior Russian legislator believes it is
Ukrainian President Pyotr Poroshenko’s personal duty to see to it
the Ukrainian military and national guard comply with the terms of
the just-concluded ceasefire agreement.
Ukraine
peace plan does not threaten country’s integrity - Poroshenko
“On
the militias’ side that must be done by the heads of the Donetsk
People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic, but as for
Ukraine’s forces, they should be under the president’s control,”
Alexey Pushkov, the head of the State Duma’s international affairs
committee said on the Rossiya-24 round-the-clock news channel.
He
dismissed as utterly unacceptable any speculations to the effect
Poroshenko does not control the National Guard or the battalions on
the payroll of (big business tycoon) Igor Kolomoisky.
“He
is obliged to keep them under control. Otherwise, what sort of
president is he, if he is unable to control armed groups acting on
behalf of his state?” Pushkov said.
“If
there are some ‘wild squads’ created by some other forces, I
believe that time is ripe for the Ukrainian president to sort things
out with the forces that control them,” Pushkov said.
In
his opinion the further events in Ukraine will depend on the extent
to which Poroshenko controls the army and, in particular, the illegal
armed groups, and if Kolomoisky or other political figures in the
territory of Ukraine, who claim that the military operation must go
on will be able to override the president’s will, how strong the
president’s will is, and if he is seriously minded about
reconciliation.”
By
and large Pushkov is certain that the “phase of hostilities in
Ukraine has come to its logical outcome, or is about to end.”
“One
has the impression the ceasefire agreements look far more fundamental
than those concluded before,” he added.
Donetsk
and Lugansk, the capital cities of self-proclaimed people’s
republics, should discuss their future with Kiev in order to get
greater autonomy, said Pushkov.
Asked
about the future of the area that these days is often referred to by
its informal name Novorossiya, the legislator explained that it was a
question for discussion between the two regions’ representatives
and Kiev.
“They
are the two parties to the conflict and they should settle between
themselves what status the regions will have,” Pushkov believes.
“Naturally,
the demands voiced by the local population must be taken into account
to the full extent,” Pushkov said, adding that those demands looked
quite fair to him.
“The
way I see it, there must certainly be a greater level of autonomy
than the regions had previously. What that level should be like and
how it will be called is a matter for the negotiating parties to
decide,” Pushkov reiterated.
Also,
he warned against putting too much emphasis on whether future talks
should revolve around the question whether the new status should be
granted to the Donetsk and Lugansk Regions or only those parts of
them the armed militias controlled at the moment.
“Too
much emphasis on such details will upset the efforts to achieve an
agreement on what is most important today - a ceasefire,” Pushkov
said. “What territories will be in focus - those under the
militias’ control or the entire territories of the Donetsk and
Lugansk regions should be a subject matter of further talks.
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